NFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Colts vs. Commanders
A week after the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys played in Rio de Janeiro, the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders play the first of three consecutive NFL games in London this year. And we have our best NFL Week 4 picks for this game.
Both teams come in with momentum. Indianapolis snapped a nine-game losing streak, which was the longest active streak in the NFL, with a win over the Texans. Washington snapped a six-game home losing streak and beat the Seahawks as the second-biggest underdog on the board last week.
Below are my best point spread and player prop wagers for this game. It kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, so get your wagers in early.
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NFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Colts vs. Commanders
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Colts -3.5 (-192)
Based on the numbers, Washington’s offense has actually fared better with Marcus Mariota as its starting quarterback than Jayden Daniels in several aspects over the last two seasons. In Mariota’s nine starts in that span, Washington has averaged 24 points per game while calling run plays 45% of the time and allowing a 28% pressure rate. In Daniels’ nine starts, the Commanders averaged 18.7 points per game, with a 37% designed-run rate and a 40% pressure rate allowed.
However, I’m selling high on Washington after its big upset of Seattle, as something about this line being more than a field goal seems fishy. In addition, Indianapolis' defense had been heavily maligned after allowing 514.5 total yards per game over two weeks, the second-worst in NFL history. But the Colts allowed just 67 yards to the Texans in the first half, and 27 yards across five possessions in the first and third quarters.
The Colts are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in October over the last three seasons, and covered those games by more than a touchdown. Another trend that supports Indianapolis is that favorites are 42-15-1 straight up (SU) and 35-23 ATS in international games. That includes an 11-5 SU mark when both teams have losing records entering the game.
Daniel Jones Under 0.5 Interceptions (-129)
Usually, a quarterback’s numbers aren’t going to look great against the Texans’ defense, but there were encouraging signs from Daniel Jones last week. He averaged more yards per attempt while under pressure (7.7) than from a clean pocket (5.7) in the win.
Just 4.1% of Jones’ pass attempts have traveled 20+ yards in the air. I don’t expect him to need to put the ball in harm’s way again and stretch the field vertically much, with wide receivers Alec Pierce and D.J. Montgomery on injured reserve (IR).
The Colts averaged 28.9 points per game in Jones’ starts last season, and the pressure was taken off Indianapolis’ quarterbacks when it ranked first in the league in yards per rush (5.3) in Weeks 1-10.
Washington is one of 19 teams to force two or fewer interceptions this season, and both came last week when Sam Darnold attempted a crazy amount of passes (45) while in catch-up mode. There should not be nearly as much passing volume for Jones, and a balanced rushing attack should help him play interception-free football for the first time this season.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.