NFL Week 5 Betting Systems Picks & Predictions (2024)
With Week 5 of the NFL right around the corner, we used the 20,000+ betting systems to find some value for the slate. Here are three bets that look to have some value via the BettingPros Betting Systems. Let’s have a big weekend!
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Week 5 Best NFL Betting System Plays
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gold Standard Pass TDs
The “Gold Standard Pass TDs Jus” system has gone 55-7 through 62 bets for an ROI of 41.1% on 62 wagers. It’s literally hit 88.7% of the time and has a simple formula.
The formula ultimately considers a player’s passing touchdowns. If the quarterback has missed their prop number in five consecutive games or more, you take the under for their passing touchdowns.
Justin Fields has just three passing touchdowns this season. He also doesn’t have two passing touchdowns in a single game this season. Despite 830 yards passing and 77 completions, Fields isn’t finding the endzone much with his arm. He’s doing it with his feet more.
Although the line is set at -260, there’s still some value. Consider betting on Fields Under 1.5 passing touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys Sunday tonight. The Cowboys are typically a good defense, and according to my projections, this game has a low-scoring game written all over it.
Pick: Justin Fields Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-260)
Rec Yards – Over
The “Rec Yards – Over” system has added a 73.6% win percentage and a 39.2% ROI on the last 277 wagers. The system looks at players consistently hitting their reception yards target throughout the season.
Using only regular season games, a player must have hit the Over in four of the last five, seven of the previous 10, nine of the last 15, and ten of the last 20.
Jakobi Meyers’s Over 41.5 receiving yards is one of the criteria plays. He’s added at least 42 receiving yards in three of his first four games this season and has earned 19 targets in the last two games.
Against Cleveland, he didn’t gain a lot of yards with his catches. That could be the same against the Broncos. But the volume alone should get him at least to 42 receiving yards.
Plus, now that we know Meyers is the No. 1 receiver with Davante Adams wanting out, Meyers should totally continue to see this type of volume.
Pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Patrick Mahomes II – Pass CMPs – Under – Home
There’s a system on betting pros that only looks at Patrick Mahomes’ passing completions to go Under when at home. He’s gone Under 22.5 passing completions in five of his last eight games and has added a 20% ROI through those eight games.
The receiving core lacks depth, with no Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, or RB Isiah Pacheco. Mahomes has already thrown five interceptions this season and is on pace for one of the worst regular seasons of his career. Granted, the Chiefs are still 4-0, but that could change this week against the Saints, even at home.
Let’s rock with Mahomes to go Under 22.5 completions.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 22.5 Passing Completions (-117)