NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday Night Football (Bengals vs. Ravens)
The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are two of the top teams in the AFC. But both teams enter this Week 5 primetime tilt needing this win.
The Ravens could easily be 4-0, but are 2-2 after a couple of collapses against the Dolphins and Bills at home. Meanwhile, Cincinnati are a puzzling 2-2 squad after getting back to .500 last Thursday night.
This game will go a long way in deciding who wins the AFC North division. But which team deserves our backing Sunday night? Let’s break it down:
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens -3, Total 47.5
Can the Bengals get back to their 2021 ways offensively?
After starting the season 0-2, the Bengals have gotten back to level pegging with wins over the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. However, Cincinnati’s offense hasn’t looked like itself, or at least the 2021 version of itself.
The Bengals rank 27th in offensive DVOA through four games and the offense has struggled to find its rhythm all season. Cincinnati’s remade offensive line is the primary culprit, as this unit has struggled to gel. The Bengals O-line ranks 27th in adjusted line yards, stuffed rate and adjusted sack rate.
The struggles in the trenches have trickled down to the entire unit. Cincinnati is averaging just 89.5 rushing yards per game, while Joe Burrow has been forced to get the ball out earlier, limiting the passing game’s explosiveness. Burrow is averaging just 6.9 air yards per attempt this season after averaging nine air yards per attempt last season. It’s no surprise that Ja’Marr Chase only 293 yards and two touchdowns this season, as he and Burrow have struggled to connect on explosive plays.
The good news is Cincinnati’s defense has picked up where it left off last season. The Bengals rank seven in defensive DVOA and are one of three teams to rank top-10 in both rush and pass defense DVOA. If there’s an area where Cincinnati’s defense could be exploited, its the defensive line. The Bengals are middle of the road in adjusted line yards defensively and are below average in stuff rate and adjusted sack rate. The key is a linebacking corps that doesn’t let opponents break big runs if they get to the second level.
Ravens struggling to close out games
The Ravens would be undefeated if they could close out massive leads. They’ve had the Dolphins and Bills on the ropes at home, and couldn’t finish the job. One reason why is Baltimore’s second half struggles on offense. The Ravens are averaging 18 points in the first half, but only 11.8 points in the second stanza. Clearly, the Ravens are finding success on scripted plays, but offensive coordinator Greg Roman is struggling to make adjustments as the game goes on.
Perhaps I buried the lead, as the Ravens defense has been the main culprit for these meltdowns. Baltimore’s defense is giving up 8.3 points per game in the first half, but that average balloons to 25 points in the second half.
Baltimore’s offense has been elite throughout the season, ranking first in DVOA. What’s interesting is the Ravens have been an elite passing team, ranking first in DVOA in that category, while their running game ranks just 15th in DVOA. The unit’s success has pretty much fallen on Lamar Jackson’s shoulders, as he has racked up more than 1,200 total yards and scored 13 touchdowns, building his case for another MVP season.
The problem is Baltimore’s supporting cast hasn’t done much to support Jackson, aside from tight end Mark Andrews. Devin Duvernay has 12 receptions, while second-year pro Rashod Bateman has just 11 catches. Bateman will also miss this game with a foot injury, limiting Jackson’s options even further.
The good news is Baltimore has a healthy backfield, as J.K. Dobbins returned to action and looked good in Week 4. With Bateman out, I’d expect Baltimore to lean on its ground game a bit more with plenty of read-option runs with Dobbins and Jackson.
Defensively, Baltimore ranks 16th in DVOA despite their second half struggles. The Ravens run defense has left a lot to be desired, as the team ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA. Baltimore’s defensive line is a strong pass rushing unit, but it’s struggled to stuff the run, ranking 22nd in adjusted line yards. The question will be whether they can dominate the struggling Bengals offensive line.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Ravens will be plenty motivated for this game after Cincinnati swept them last season and outscored them 82-38 in those games. Part of the reason why Baltimore struggled was because their secondary was decimated by injuries, making things easy for Burrow, Chase and Tee Higgins. Baltimore’s pass defense has to be better against Cincinnati’s explosive unit.
The key to this game will be the trench battles on both sides of the ball. Baltimore needs an offensive line that ranks 25th in adjusted line yards to control the line of scrimmage and keep the Ravens ahead of the chains on the ground. On the flip side, the Ravens could make life hard on Burrow and co. if they can apply the pressure.
Something has to give between these two confusing division foes. I’m leaning with the Ravens in a bounce back spot in a game they absolutely have to win.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.