NFL Week 5 Picks, Predictions and Parlays
Greetings, friends. Welcome to Week 5 of my weekly NFL sports betting column. We had a WEEK in Week 4! After a +10.6-unit result in Week 3, we nearly doubled it with a 19.67-unit performance in Week 4. That brings our overall profit for this column to +31.27 units!
We started things off with an insane Thursday, going 14-0 (!!!!) in Thursday Night Football’s Steelers vs. Browns matchup. As a volume +EV bettor, I’m not really accustomed to that kind of record, haha. I’m used to hammering volume and trusting that the final tally with be in our favor. That was one for the record books.
Here’s where we stand after four weeks:
- Week 1: 48-38, +5u
- Week 2: 35-42, -4u
- Week 3: 24-18, +10.6u
- Week 4: 28-16, +19.67u
Overall: 135-114, +31.27u
As I mentioned previously, the total units are a little tricky to calculate because they usually include some cross-sport parlays and because some plays are used multiple times. So I try to take the most honest approach and grade each play individually at the odds I got. If it’s an all-NFL parlay, I’ll list it in the parlays section and grade it accordingly. Otherwise, we’ll track individual plays.
Here is my Week 1 article if you want to go back and take a look at how we started. I explain a bit more about my process there.
Now, let’s get to some Week 5 bets.
- Best +EV NFL Picks
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Tail Sharp NFL Bettors at Better Prices
- Optimize Your PrizePicks Prop Plays
NFL Week 5 Best Bets
Since I post a high volume of picks, I’ll share a table version of the picks first. I’ll add to this throughout the week as I add more picks. Where relevant, I’ll add some notes below the table to provide additional context. But know that, for the most part, I am betting prices with a focus on +EV (expected value) compared to sharp sportsbooks and following sharp liquidity on prediction markets.
| Player / Team / Game | Side | Line | Market | Odds | Book |
| Bucky Irving | Over | 52.5 | Rushing Yards | 1096 | Pick6 |
| Jalon Daniels | Over | 184.5 | Passing Yards | N/A | Pick6 |
| Javonte Williams | Over | 16.5 | Rush Attempts | N/A | Pick6 |
| George Pickens | Over | 67.5 | Receiving Yards | N/A | Pick6 |
| Dak Prescott | Over | 0.5 | Passing Yards | 100 | Pick6 |
| Javonte Williams | Over | 67.5 | Rushing Yards | N/A | Pick6 |
| Chris Godwin | Over | 33.5 | Receiving Yards | N/A | Pick6 |
| Jayden Daniels | Under | 30.5 | Pass Attempts | -115 | Underdog |
| Kenneth Gainwell | Over | 15.5 | Rushing Yards | 1150 | Onyx Odds |
| Dak Prescott | Over | 249.5 | Passing Yards | N/A | Onyx Odds |
| Bucs vs. Cowboys | Under | 43.5 | Total Points | N/A | Onyx Odds |
| Dak Prescott | Over | 23.5 | Pass Completions | 234 | Sleeper Picks |
| Emeka Egbuka | Over | 34.5 | Receiving Yards | N/A | Sleeper Picks |
| Javonte Williams | Over | 92.5 | Rush + Rec Yards | 237 | Sleeper Picks |
| Cade Otton | Over | 28.5 | Receiving Yards | N/A | Sleeper Picks |
| George Pickens | Over | 54.5 | Receiving Yards | 216 | Sleeper Picks |
| Bucky Irving | Over | 53.5 | Rushing Yards | N/A | Sleeper Picks |
| Ryan Williams | Over | 59.5 | Receiving Yards | 330 | Onyx Odds |
| Nate Frazier | Over | 61.5 | Rushing Yards | N/A | Onyx Odds |
| Keelon Russell | Over | 224.5 | Passing Yards | N/A | Onyx Odds |
| Kyler Murray | Under | 32.5 | Pass Attempts | -115 | Underdog |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Over | 10.5 | Rush Attempts | -115 | Underdog |
| Jayden Daniels | Under | 18.5 | Pass Completions | -115 | Underdog |
| Alvin Kamara | Under | 3.5 | Receptions | -115 | Underdog |
| Kirk Cousins | Over | 14.55 | Fantasy Points | -115 | Underdog |
| Daniel Jones | Over | 19.5 | Pass Completions | -115 | Underdog |
| Drake London | Over | 39.5 | Receiving Yards | -108 | Novig |
| Garrett Wilson | Under | 6.5 | Receptions | -110 | Onyx Odds |
| Tre Tucker | Under | 3.5 | Recdptions | -108 | Onyx Odds |
| Deshaun Watson | Under | 31.5 | Pass Attempts | -124 | DraftKings |
| Browns (vs. Jets) | Under | 17.5 | Team Total | -135 | DraftKings |
* Note: More info on this below in the PrizePicks and Underdog section, but the odds for the pickem platforms are dependent on playing the appropriate lineup sizes that offer you those odds. If you play other lineup sizes, you’ll get worse odds.
NFL Week 5 Game-by-Game Picks
Thursday Night Football (Bucs vs. Cowboys)
- Bucky Irving Over 52.5 Rushing Yards 1096 (Pick6)
- Jalon Daniels Over 184.5 Passing Yards N/A (Pick6)
- Javonte Williams Over 16.5 Rush Attempts N/A (Pick6)
- George Pickens Over 67.5 Receiving Yards N/A (Pick6)
- Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Passing Yards 100 (Pick6)
- Javonte Williams Over 67.5 Rushing Yards N/A (Pick6)
- Chris Godwin Over 33.5 Receiving Yards N/A (Pick6)
- Jayden Daniels Under 30.5 Pass Attempts -115 (Underdog)
- Kenneth Gainwell Over 15.5 Rushing Yards 1150 (Onyx Odds)
- Dak Prescott Over 249.5 Passing Yards N/A (Onyx Odds)
- Bucs vs. Cowboys Under 43.5 Total Points N/A (Onyx Odds)
- Dak Prescott Over 23.5 Pass Completions 234 (Sleeper Picks)
- Emeka Egbuka Over 34.5 Receiving Yards N/A (Sleeper Picks)
- Javonte Williams Over 92.5 Rush + Rec Yards 237 (Sleeper Picks)
- Cade Otton Over 28.5 Receiving Yards N/A (Sleeper Picks)
- George Pickens Over 54.5 Receiving Yards 216 (Sleeper Picks)
- Bucky Irving Over 53.5 Rushing Yards N/A (Sleeper Picks)
NFL Week 5 Parlays
With the caveat that many of my parlay slips are multi-sport and I really only focus on value (+EV picks = +EV parlays) and being careful about correlation penalties, here are some of NFL-only slips I have for Week 5:
*** I’ll add parlays here throughout the week and weekend as I log them, but see Underdog, PrizePicks, and Betr plays above for a list of picks that make up various parlays (often cross-sport ones).
How I Find My NFL Best Bets
I'm a positive expected value bettor, and I bet volume. I'm looking for prices that I believe give me an edge, then making enough of those bets for that edge to have a chance to play out over time. There will be losses. Sometimes several in a row. I'm comfortable with that as long as the process and the prices make sense.
Each week, I'll share my NFL best bets here and keep adding picks through Thursday Night Football, into the weekend, and sometimes right up to Sunday kickoff. Expect straight bets and player props, plus parlays, PrizePicks and Underdog entries, and sportsbook discounts or boosts I think are worth playing.
I'll use the BettingPros Market-Based EV tool, Smart Money tool, PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers, Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Whale Tracker, odds pages, and likely some other BP tools along the way to help build the card. Each pick will include which tool helped me find it, so you can follow the process yourself.
The price matters. I can’t emphasize that enough. I’m betting the PRICE more than anything else. When you see a play from me and the current price is significantly worse, you should probably avoid it. In some cases, I’ll include how far I’m willing to go with a number. So, always check the current number before following a pick. A bet I liked on Monday might offer very different value by Sunday morning. I’ll list the line and the odds I played alongside each selection and keep adding to the card as I find more bets.
NFL PrizePicks, Underdog & DFS/Pickem Picks
When I build a PrizePicks or Underdog entry, I start with the individual picks and the price I'm effectively paying for each one. A big payout doesn't do much for me if I have to add a couple of bad picks to get there.
The slip format matters. With standard payouts, the best options on PrizePicks and Underdog are:
- Underdog: 2-pick Standard, which works out to approximately -115 per pick.
- PrizePicks: 5-pick Flex or 6-pick Flex, at approximately -119 and -118 per pick, respectively.
Those are effective odds calculated from the full payout structure, including partial payouts when some picks miss. They give me a baseline for comparing each selection with the sportsbook market.
Here’s a video Andrew Erickson recorded where he walks through the PrizePicks Optimizer and the strategy behind using it. The same applies for Underdog, just with different odds and slip sizes (see above). Watch the video here. And if you have any questions, shoot me a DM on Twitter/X (@mikeMaher).
I'll use the BettingPros PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers to find those edges and share my selections below. Focus on the individual lines when following along, and check your entry's payout before submitting. Discounts and adjusted multipliers can change the math. I'm happy to wait for another good pick instead of forcing one to fill a slip.
Again, we’re focusing on individual picks here. We want each individual pick to be a good one, so we’re less worried about every slip hitting and more focused on each individual pick providing value. Below, I’ll share each pick individually (I may have the same pick in multiple slips) and will share some of the completed slips I built throughout the week.
What is the Smart Money Tool?
Watch this walkthrough of the Smart Money board and how the tool works. If you'd rather watch than read, start with this Smart Money tutorial.
Smart Money is a new tool at BettingPros that focuses on sharp money on prediction markets called liquidity. While prediction markets are technically peer-to-peer, we know they’re filled with sharp bettors, whales, trading firms, market makers, and even other sportsbooks.
The liquidity is the primary signal here. That money (available liquidity) shows us what the sharps are trying to bet on prediction markets. Smart Money shows you where you can bet the same thing, at a better price, on a sportsbook.
Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and ProphetX are exchanges, so the money sitting on each side of a market is public.
The tool tracks liquidity across the major prediction markets in real time and lines those prices up against every sportsbook on the board. When a market is heavily backed on one side at a number the books haven’t matched, that gap is your edge. Smart Money flags the bet, finds the best available price across all major books and exchanges, and explains the edge in plain English. It’s line shopping with the sharpest money on the screen telling you which line to shop for.