Greetings, friends. Welcome to my weekly NFL sports betting column. My NFL betting card usually starts taking shape early in the week. By Sunday morning, it can be quite a bit longer. I fire my picks off based on the numbers that show up. Game lines, props, parlays. If I see an edge based on the tools I’m using or a boost makes a bet worth adding, I add it to the card. I want this weekly column to follow that process.
I’ll get into what that’s going to look like below.
- Best +EV NFL Picks
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Tail Sharp NFL Bettors at Better Prices
- Optimize Your PrizePicks Prop Plays
How I Find My NFL Best Bets
I'm a positive expected value bettor, and I bet volume. I'm looking for prices that I believe give me an edge, then making enough of those bets for that edge to have a chance to play out over time. There will be losses. Sometimes several in a row. I'm comfortable with that as long as the process and the prices make sense.
Each week, I'll share my NFL best bets here and keep adding picks through Thursday Night Football, into the weekend, and sometimes right up to Sunday kickoff. Expect straight bets and player props, plus parlays, PrizePicks and Underdog entries, and sportsbook discounts or boosts I think are worth playing.
I'll use the BettingPros Market-Based EV tool, Smart Money tool, PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers, Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Whale Tracker, odds pages, and likely some other BP tools along the way to help build the card. Each pick will include which tool helped me find it, so you can follow the process yourself.
The price matters. I can’t emphasize that enough. I’m betting the PRICE more than anything else. When you see a play from me and the current price is significantly worse, you should probably avoid it. In some cases, I’ll include how far I’m willing to go with a number. So, always check the current number before following a pick. A bet I liked on Monday might offer very different value by Sunday morning. I’ll list the line and the odds I played alongside each selection and keep adding to the card as I find more bets.
Sound good? Cool. Let’s cook.
NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Updated Picks
Since I post a high volume of picks, I’ll share a table version of the picks first. I’ll add to this throughout the week as I add more picks. Where relevant, I’ll add some notes below the table to provide additional context. But know that, for the most part, I am betting prices with a focus on +EV (expected value) compared to sharp sportsbooks and following sharp liquidity on prediction markets.
You’ll notice I am pretty heavy on Underdog this week. That’s intentional. Underdog changed their payout structure several weeks ago, and four-pick flex plays now pay out ~-107 odds, the best in the pickem industry, and better odds than you’ll get at most sportsbooks for a lot of those props. Yes, you have to parlay them, but we’re worried about the value of each individual pick. The math works out in the end with volume. I explain this in more detail in the PrizePicks and Underdog section below, but always remember that we are betting the PRICE. If you want to bet any of these, make sure you are getting a price very similar or better to what I have here (or monitor how the market has moved, but that is a bit more complicated).
| Pick | Odds | Book | Tool |
| Seattle Seahawks Under 24.5 Team Total | -130 | Onyx Odds | Smart Money |
| Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Passing Yards | -119 | PrizePicks | Promo |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks Under 44.5 Total Points | -108 | Kalshi | Market EV |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks Under 21.5 First Half Points | -110 | BetMGM | Market EV |
| Rhamondre Stevenson Over 12.5 Receiving Yards | -115 | Onyx Odds | LIVE |
| Cooper Kupp Over 9.5 Receiving Yards | -140 | Onyx Odds | LIVE |
| Cooper Kupp Over 11.5 Receiving Yards | 487 | Sleeper Picks | LIVE |
| George Holani Under 34.5 Rushing Yards | parlay | Sleeper Picks | LIVE |
| Drake Maye Over 164.5 Passing Yards | parlay | Sleeper Picks | LIVE |
| Romeo Doubs Over 9.5 Receiving Yards | -170 | Onyx Odds | LIVE |
| Rashid Shaheed Over 10.5 Receiving Yards | 441 | Onyx Odds | LIVE |
| Seattle Seahawks Over 9.5 Points Team Total | parlay | Onyx Odds | LIVE |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks Over 26.5 Total Points | parlay | Onyx Odds | LIVE |
| Gunnar Helm Under 2.5 Receptions | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Michael Wilson Over 3.5 Receptions | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Falcons at Steelers Under 21.5 1st Half Total | -118 | Onyx Odds | Smart Money |
| Chris Godwin Over 405. Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Jared Goff Under 23.5 Pass Completions | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Kenneth Walker Over 15.5 Receivnig Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| D.J. Moore Over 3.5 Receptions | -106 | Onyx Odds | Smart Money |
| Brock Bowers Over 61.5 Receiving Yards | -114 | DraftKings | Smart Money |
| Chris Olave Under 6.5 Receptions | -119 | PrizePicks | Optimizer |
| Puka Nacua Under 2.5 Rushing Yards | -119 | PrizePicks | Optimizer |
| DK Metcalf Over 3.5 Receptions | -119 | PrizePicks | Optimizer |
| Colby Parkinson Under 21.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Sam LaPorta Over 40.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Colston Loveland Over 4.5 Receptions | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Kyler Murray Over 21.5 Pass Completions | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Jalen McMillan Under 3.5 Receptions | -210 | Onyx Odds | Smart Money |
| Ravens vs. Colts Under 48.5 Points | -115 | DraftKings | Smart Money |
| 49ers vs. Rams Under 48.5 Points | -108 | BetMGM | Smart Money |
| Colby Parkinson Under 2.5 Receptions | -143 | FanDuel | Smart Money |
| Colts +3.5 vs. Ravens | -108 | BetMGM | Smart Money |
| Bijan Robinson Under 18.5 Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Donayvion Wicks Over 28.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| DK Metcalf Over 48.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Charlie Kolar Over 16.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Adam Trautman Under 8.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Brock Purdy Under 36.5 Longest Pass Completion | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Christian McCaffrey Under 16.5 Longest Reception | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Isaac TeSlaa Over 15.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Jaxson Dart Under 6.5 Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Christian McCaffrey Over 38.5 Receiving Yards | -122 | DK Pick6 | Promo |
| Brock Purdy Over 33.5 Pass Attempts | -122 | DK Pick6 | Promo |
| Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Passing Yards | -122 | DK Pick6 | Promo |
| Jets vs. Titans Under 39.5 Total Points | -104 | DraftKings | Smart Money |
| Ja’Kobi Lane Over 1.5 Receptions | -125 | FanDuel | Smart Money |
| Nico Collins Under 5.5 Receptions | -115 | bet365 | Smart Money |
| Packers vs Vikings Under 9.5 1Q Points | -105 | Caesars | Smart Money |
| Raiders -0.4 1Q Spread vs. Dolphins | 128 | Caesars | Smart Money |
| Broncos ML vs. Chiefs | 130 | DraftKings | Smart Money |
| Devaughn Vele Under 3.5 Receptions | -119 | PrizePicks | Optimizer |
| Tyjae Spears Over 22.5 Rushing Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Tony Pollard Under 7.5 Longest Reception | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Breece Hall Over 18.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Joey Slye Over 1.5 Field Goals Made | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Tony Pollard Under 13.5 Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Omarion Hampton Over 67.5 Rushing Yards | -107 | Underdog | Smart Money |
| Jayden Reed Over 38.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Smart Money |
| Jordan Love Under 20.5 Pass Completions | -107 | Underdog | Smart Money |
| Kyler Murray Under 222.5 Passing Yards | -107 | Underdog | Smart Money |
| MarShawn Lloyd Over 58.5 Rush + Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Smart Money |
| Dallas Goedert Over 3.5 Receptions | -107 | Underdog | Smart Money |
| Javonte Williams Over 73.5 Rushing Yards | -107 | Underdog | Smart Money |
| Javonte Williams Under 17.5 Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Cam Skattebo Under 16.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Rashee Rice Under 57.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 Receptions | -110 | Onyx Odds | Smart Money |
| J.K. Dobbins Under 59.5 Rush + Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| D’Andre Swift Over 13.5 Receiving Yards | -106 | DraftKings | Smart Money |
| Jonathan Brooks Under 1.5 Receptions | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Kenyon Sadiq Under 1.5 Receptions | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Tony Pollard Under 9.5 Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
| Breece Hall Under 16.5 Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog | Optimizer |
* Note: More info on this below in the PrizePicks and Underdog section, but the odds for the pickem platforms are dependent on playing the appropriate lineup sizes that offer you those odds. If you play other lineup sizes, you’ll get worse odds.
- When checking the Smart Money tool on Wednesday morning, I saw there was more than $150K in liquidity backing Colts +3.5 vs. the Ravens on prediction markets. In general, more liquidity means a stronger signal.
Over $150K in liquidity on Colts +3.5 vs. the Ravens ?'? pic.twitter.com/KfodZz78CS
— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) September 9, 2026
- In the list above, you’ll sometimes see “LIVE” listed under the tool. That just means it’s something I added live during the game. Sometimes those are based on live numbers I’m looking at. Other times, they are leaning more on vibes. I don’t ever recommend betting based on vibes, but sometimes I do it for fun. When I do, it’s usually live because you can find softer lines and quicker value live. Once games start, most books set their odds based on algorithms, with some manual oversight. But things move so quickly that it isn’t an actual person setting every single line. It’s based on math, projections, time left, stats accrued, etc. It doesn’t always take important factors into account, so you can find a lot of value live.
- I haven’t tallied the whole thing yet, but I went up about 7 units on Wednesday night’s Patriots vs. Seahawks opener. If you follow me on X, you probably saw me sharing a bunch of picks shortly before and during the game. Most of those winnings were from hammering a few unders prior to the game (game total, Seahawks team total, and first half total) and adding a handful of live bets at halftime, including a +487 parlay on Sleeper (side note: Sleeper doesn’t tend to have very good odds. They’re the one book I really use just for fun. I stick mostly to promos, discounts, and the occasional live bet there. You’re better off on other platforms, especially Underdog).
- There was a ton of liquidity flying around on prediction markets earlier this week. I couldn’t pass up Broncos moneyline at +130 against the Chiefs. There was more than $120K in liquidity on Kalshi on this play, so I let it rip.
Should we try to list all of the picks by matchups? Sure, why not.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Straight bet
- First-half total under 21.5 (-110, Onyx)
PrizePicks
- DK Metcalf over 3.5 receptions
Underdog
- DK Metcalf over 48.5 receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson under 18.5 rushing attempts
- Rico Dowdle under 44.5 rushing yards
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
Straight bets
- Colts +3.5 (-108, BetMGM)
- Game total under 48.5 (-110, Onyx)
- Ja’Kobi Lane over 1.5 receptions (-125, FanDuel)
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
Straight bets
- DJ Moore over 3.5 receptions (-110, Onyx; also played on PrizePicks)
- Nico Collins under 5.5 receptions (-115, bet365)
Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
Straight bet
- D’Andre Swift over 13.5 receiving yards (-106, DraftKings)
Underdog
- Colston Loveland over 4.5 receptions
- Tetairoa McMillan over 58.5 receiving yards
- Darren Waller under 11.5 yards on his longest reception
- Bryce Young under 9.5 yards on his longest rush
- Jonathon Brooks under 8.5 rushing attempts
- Jonathon Brooks under 1.5 receptions
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Underdog
- Bhayshul Tuten under 62.5 combined rushing and receiving yards
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
Underdog
- Jared Goff under 23.5 completions
- Sam LaPorta over 40.5 receiving yards
- Isaac TeSlaa over 15.5 receiving yards
PrizePicks
- Chris Olave under 6.5 receptions
- Devaughn Vele under 3.5 receptions
New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Straight bet
- Game total under 39.5 (-104, DraftKings)
Underdog
- Tyjae Spears over 22.5 rushing yards
- Joey Slye over 1.5 field goals made
- Tony Pollard under 13.5 rushing attempts
- Tony Pollard under 9.5 receiving yards
- Tony Pollard under 7.5 yards on his longest reception
- Breece Hall over 18.5 receiving yards
- Breece Hall under 16.5 rushing attempts
- Gunnar Helm under 2.5 receptions
- Kenyon Sadiq under 1.5 receptions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Straight bet
- Jalen McMillan under 3.5 receptions (-110, Onyx)
Underdog
- Chris Godwin over 40.5 receiving yards
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Underdog
- Michael Wilson over 3.5 receptions
- Charlie Kolar over 16.5 receiving yards
- Omarion Hampton over 67.5 rushing yards
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Straight bet
- First-quarter total under 9.5 (-105, Caesars)
Underdog
- Kyler Murray over 21.5 completions
- Kyler Murray under 222.5 passing yards
- Jordan Love under 20.5 completions
- Jayden Reed over 38.5 receiving yards
- MarShawn Lloyd over 58.5 combined rushing and receiving yards
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Straight bets
- Raiders first-quarter spread -0.5 (+128, Caesars)
- Brock Bowers over 61.5 receiving yards (-110, Onyx)
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Underdog
- Dontayvion Wicks over 28.5 receiving yards
- Dallas Goedert over 3.5 receptions
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Underdog
- Jaxson Dart under 6.5 rushing attempts
- Javonte Williams over 73.5 rushing yards
- Javonte Williams under 17.5 rushing attempts
- Cam Skattebo under 16.5 receiving yards
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Straight bets
- Broncos moneyline (+130, DraftKings)
- Xavier Worthy under 3.5 receptions (-110, Onyx)
Underdog
- Kenneth Walker III over 15.5 receiving yards
- Adam Trautman under 8.5 receiving yards
- Rashee Rice under 57.5 receiving yards
- J.K. Dobbins under 59.5 combined rushing and receiving yards
This one I'll give a go. Broncos ML at +130 pic.twitter.com/ZLYMIqzcbV
— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) September 9, 2026
NFL PrizePicks, Underdog & DFS/Pickem Picks
When I build a PrizePicks or Underdog entry, I start with the individual picks and the price I'm effectively paying for each one. A big payout doesn't do much for me if I have to add a couple of bad picks to get there.
The slip format matters. With standard payouts, the best options on PrizePicks and Underdog are:
- Underdog: 4-pick Flex, which works out to approximately -107 per pick.
- PrizePicks: 5-pick Flex or 6-pick Flex, at approximately -119 and -118 per pick, respectively.
Those are effective odds calculated from the full payout structure, including partial payouts when some picks miss. They give me a baseline for comparing each selection with the sportsbook market. Underdog's standard 4-pick Flex offers the best price of those options, but I still need four picks worth playing.
Here’s a video Andrew Erickson recorded where he walks through the PrizePicks Optimizer and the strategy behind using it. The same applies for Underdog, just with different odds and slip sizes (see above). Watch the video here. And if you have any questions, shoot me a DM on Twitter/X (@mikeMaher).
I'll use the BettingPros PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers to find those edges and share my selections below. Focus on the individual lines when following along, and check your entry's payout before submitting. Discounts and adjusted multipliers can change the math. I'm happy to wait for another good pick instead of forcing one to fill a slip.
Again, we’re focusing on individual picks here. We want each individual pick to be a good one, so we’re less worried about every slip hitting and more focused on each individual pick providing value. Below, I’ll share each pick individually (I may have the same pick in multiple slips) and will share some of the completed slips I built throughout the week.
What is the Smart Money Tool?
Watch this walkthrough of the Smart Money board and how the tool works. If you'd rather watch than read, start with this Smart Money tutorial.
Smart Money is a new tool at BettingPros that focuses on sharp money on prediction markets called liquidity. While prediction markets are technically peer-to-peer, we know they’re filled with sharp bettors, whales, trading firms, market makers, and even other sportsbooks.
The liquidity is the primary signal here. That money (available liquidity) shows us what the sharps are trying to bet on prediction markets. Smart Money shows you where you can bet the same thing, at a better price, on a sportsbook.
Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and ProphetX are exchanges, so the money sitting on each side of a market is public.
The tool tracks liquidity across the major prediction markets in real time and lines those prices up against every sportsbook on the board. When a market is heavily backed on one side at a number the books haven’t matched, that gap is your edge. Smart Money flags the bet, finds the best available price across all major books and exchanges, and explains the edge in plain English. It’s line shopping with the sharpest money on the screen telling you which line to shop for.
