NFL Week 1 Picks, Predictions and Parlays

Greetings, friends. Welcome to my weekly NFL sports betting column. My NFL betting card usually starts taking shape early in the week. By Sunday morning, it can be quite a bit longer. I fire my picks off based on the numbers that show up. Game lines, props, parlays. If I see an edge based on the tools I’m using or a boost makes a bet worth adding, I add it to the card. I want this weekly column to follow that process. 

I’ll get into what that’s going to look like below.

• Best +EV NFL Picks
• NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
• Tail Sharp NFL Bettors at Better Prices
• Optimize Your PrizePicks Prop Plays

How I Find My NFL Best Bets

I'm a positive expected value bettor, and I bet volume. I'm looking for prices that I believe give me an edge, then making enough of those bets for that edge to have a chance to play out over time. There will be losses. Sometimes several in a row. I'm comfortable with that as long as the process and the prices make sense.

Each week, I'll share my NFL best bets here and keep adding picks through Thursday Night Football, into the weekend, and sometimes right up to Sunday kickoff. Expect straight bets and player props, plus parlays, PrizePicks and Underdog entries, and sportsbook discounts or boosts I think are worth playing.

I'll use the BettingPros Market-Based EV tool, Smart Money tool, PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers, Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Whale Tracker, odds pages, and likely some other BP tools along the way to help build the card. Each pick will include which tool helped me find it, so you can follow the process yourself.

The price matters. I can’t emphasize that enough. I’m betting the PRICE more than anything else. When you see a play from me and the current price is significantly worse, you should probably avoid it. In some cases, I’ll include how far I’m willing to go with a number. So, always check the current number before following a pick. A bet I liked on Monday might offer very different value by Sunday morning. I’ll list the line and the odds I played alongside each selection and keep adding to the card as I find more bets.

Sound good? Cool. Let’s cook.

NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Updated Picks

Since I post a high volume of picks, I’ll share a table version of the picks first. I’ll add to this throughout the week as I add more picks. Where relevant, I’ll add some notes below the table to provide additional context. But know that, for the most part, I am betting prices with a focus on +EV (expected value) compared to sharp sportsbooks and following sharp liquidity on prediction markets.

* Note: More info on this below in the PrizePicks and Underdog section, but the odds for the pickem platforms are dependent on playing the appropriate lineup sizes that offer you those odds. If you play other lineup sizes, you’ll get worse odds.

• When checking the Smart Money tool on Wednesday morning, I saw there was more than $150K in liquidity backing Colts +3.5 vs. the Ravens on prediction markets. In general, more liquidity means a stronger signal.

Over $150K in liquidity on Colts +3.5 vs. the Ravens ?'? pic.twitter.com/KfodZz78CS

— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) September 9, 2026

• In the list above, you’ll sometimes see “LIVE” listed under the tool. That just means it’s something I added live during the game. Sometimes those are based on live numbers I’m looking at. Other times, they are leaning more on vibes. I don’t ever recommend betting based on vibes, but sometimes I do it for fun. When I do, it’s usually live because you can find softer lines and quicker value live. Once games start, most books set their odds based on algorithms, with some manual oversight. But things move so quickly that it isn’t an actual person setting every single line. It’s based on math, projections, time left, stats accrued, etc. It doesn’t always take important factors into account, so you can find a lot of value live.
• I haven’t tallied the whole thing yet, but I went up about 7 units on Wednesday night’s Patriots vs. Seahawks opener. If you follow me on X, you probably saw me sharing a bunch of picks shortly before and during the game. Most of those winnings were from hammering a few unders prior to the game (game total, Seahawks team total, and first half total) and adding a handful of live bets at halftime, including a +487 parlay on Sleeper (side note: Sleeper doesn’t tend to have very good odds. They’re the one book I really use just for fun. I stick mostly to promos, discounts, and the occasional live bet there. You’re better off on other platforms, especially Underdog).

NFL PrizePicks, Underdog & DFS/Pickem Picks

When I build a PrizePicks or Underdog entry, I start with the individual picks and the price I'm effectively paying for each one. A big payout doesn't do much for me if I have to add a couple of bad picks to get there.

The slip format matters. With standard payouts, the best options on PrizePicks and Underdog are:

• Underdog: 4-pick Flex, which works out to approximately -107 per pick.
• PrizePicks: 5-pick Flex or 6-pick Flex, at approximately -119 and -118 per pick, respectively.

Those are effective odds calculated from the full payout structure, including partial payouts when some picks miss. They give me a baseline for comparing each selection with the sportsbook market. Underdog's standard 4-pick Flex offers the best price of those options, but I still need four picks worth playing.

Here’s a video Andrew Erickson recorded where he walks through the PrizePicks Optimizer and the strategy behind using it. The same applies for Underdog, just with different odds and slip sizes (see above). Watch the video here. And if you have any questions, shoot me a DM on Twitter/X (@mikeMaher).

I'll use the BettingPros PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers to find those edges and share my selections below. Focus on the individual lines when following along, and check your entry's payout before submitting. Discounts and adjusted multipliers can change the math. I'm happy to wait for another good pick instead of forcing one to fill a slip.

Again, we’re focusing on individual picks here. We want each individual pick to be a good one, so we’re less worried about every slip hitting and more focused on each individual pick providing value. Below, I’ll share each pick individually (I may have the same pick in multiple slips) and will share some of the completed slips I built throughout the week.