Only three NBA games are on the schedule tonight. But they’re good enough to find some positive expected value on the board. Here are my top three market-based +EV NBA picks for tonight’s three-game slate.
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Thursday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Domantas Sabonis Over 13.5 Rebounds (+122 at Polymarket)
- Fair Value: -109
- Market EV: +16%
Domantas Sabonis has grabbed at least 14 rebounds in five straight games. Tonight, he’ll face off against a Pelicans squad that ranked 25th in rebounds last season. Nikola Jokic just nailed the over on his rebound prop against the Pelicans last night, adding 13 rebounds. Ultimately, the Pelicans have allowed four of the last five centers they’ve faced to hit the over.
You can bet on Sabonis to go over at 13.5 rebounds at +122, while the fair value is stuck at -109. That’s a 16% positive expected value play. It’ll be one of the best plays you’ll find today.
Cameron Boozer Over 20.5 Points + Assists (+127 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +108
- Market EV: +9%
Cameron Boozer has looked like one of the NBA’s best rookies to start the season. He hasn’t dominated this combo prop, going over this line in just one of four games. But he’s facing a Trail Blazers team that has played three games in their last eight days.
You can bet the over on Novig at +127 odds, while other sportsbooks offer it at +108. This is a 9% positive expected value play for the rookie. He’s helped the Grizzlies start 4-0 this season. Tonight, he’ll hopefully help us get another win.
Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 Rebounds (+164 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: +144
- Market EV: +8%
Jeremiah Fears has stepped up on the glass recently. The Pelicans guard has added at least four rebounds in back-to-back games. Over his previous 10 games, including last season, he’s averaged 4.4 rebounds per game.
Still, you can bet on Fears to go over 3.5 rebounds at +164 at ProphetX. The fair value is +144 - a market EV of 8%. This is another terrific positive expected value play to consider for tonight’s three-game slate.
After all, the Kings ranked 17th in rebounds against guards last season and have already struggled to contain guards on the glass this season. The last five guards to face the Kings have gone over their rebounds prop, including Dylan Harper, who had six with a 4.5 line against the Kings last time out.
