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NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Picks & Best Player Prop Bets: 49ers vs Seahawks

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Welcome to the ultimate Week 6 NFL sports betting breakdown from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to navigating every twist and turn on the Week 6 NFL slate. All eyes are on the highly anticipated NFC West showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. This matchup features the 49ers (2-3) facing off against the division-leading Seahawks (3-2) at Lumen Field in Seattle.

From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you build the perfect single-game parlay to jumpstart your weekend. This is just a preview of what's in store when the FULL BettingPros Week 6 Primer drops later this week. Get ready to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: 49ers vs. Seahawks.

Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 17 of the Seahawks' last 20 games.
  • Seattle is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games played (4-8-1 over the last 12 games).
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • Seattle is 10-3 as a favorite in the last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 4-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Seattle is 4-2 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 13 of the 49ers' last 17 games.
  • SF is 12-6 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023. So far, in 2024, they are 2-1 ATS at home.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread twice in their last 10 home games.
  • The 49ers have won the first half in each of their last seven games against NFC West opponents.
  • The 49ers are 8-9 ATS as road favorites in their last 16 games.

Totals:

  • Five of the Seahawks' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the 49ers' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 2-1 toward the over at home, averaging 47 points per game.

Overall:

It's a classic NFC West clash on Thursday Night Football, with two teams chomping to bounce back after horrible losses as touchdown-plus favorites in Week 5. The Seahawks are back at home, welcoming the 49ers on a five-game winning streak against Seattle. Last season alone, the 49ers beat Seattle by a combined score of 59-29 points. SF covered a touchdown-plus favorite in both contests.

We faded the Seahawks in Week 5, citing their poor ATS performance as home favorites. I didn't imagine they would lose outright, but that's exactly what happened. We don't see them as home underdogs too often, but it's a better spot to return to Seattle than last week.

For the 49ers, road teams have been the best bets to make ATS in their contests. We saw that last week when Arizona beat them outright as road underdogs.

The 49ers have definitely been on the wrong side of variance this season, with all the injuries they have dealt with and an 0-3 record in close games. Every game they have lost this season has been within six points.

There's been a lot of chaos in 49ers games, such as them losing their kicker last week. That hasn't helped their luck. The offense has also been good, not great.

Brock Purdy has the fourth-highest EPA/dropback under pressure this season. Purdy ranks fifth in time to throw because he extends the play even in the face of pressure. The 49ers' offensive line hasn't been great in pass protection, allowing the eighth-highest pressure rate this season.

Per Nex Gen Stats, the Seahawks have generated pressure on 37.0% of dropbacks this season, the seventh-highest rate in the league. When generating pressure, the Seahawks have allowed a league-low 2.8 yards per attempt against passes.

Seattle has also done a great job in coverage this season allowing the seventh-lowest separation rate to opposing passing games. This is potentially problematic for the 49ers passing offense given that Purdy has thrown into tight windows at the highest rate in the league this season (24.2%) per Next Gen Stats.

How can Kyle Shanahan mitigate this potential concern? Attack the middle of the field with more schemed looks. Per Next Gen Stats, Purdy has targeted the intermediate level of the field (10-19 air yards) on a league-high 33.1% of attempts this season.

Purdy has recorded a 65.4% completion percentage on such passes in 2024 (6th-highest). The Seahawks inside linebackers have struggled in coverage in 2024, allowing 8.9 yards per attempt (9th-most) and 133 yards after the catch (2nd-most).

Look for Shanny to move guys around and set up mismatches with WR/TEs on linebackers. For the 49ers offense to be effective in this game, I'd envision they look to attack the middle/slot with their WRs/TEs and avoid the perimeter cornerbacks.

The Seahawks’ defense is also vastly overrated, even if they get pass rusher Boye Mafe back this week. Per Next Gen Stats, Mafe has been one of the most productive third-down rushers this season, generating 11 pressures on just 27 third-down pass rushes, the highest third-down pressure rate (40.7%) of any defender league-wide (min. 25 third-down pass rushes).

However, in the last two weeks, Seattle’s defense has allowed an average of 400 yards of offense to the Lions (okay) and Giants (yikes). Their run defense has been a sieve.

As for Seattle, their offense is going to throw the ball. A lot. They rank first in pass rate over expectation (+7.7%) and are more than aware of the firepower the 49ers offense possesses. I'd expect them to approach this game from an aggressive mindset. Pair that with their explosive running game and the 49ers’ weaknesses against the run, deep ball, and middle of the field...I like Seattle's offense in this matchup at home.

The middle of the 49ers' should be wide open for Seahawks slot WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be featured. All five of his closest comparable WRs that have faced SF this season went OVER their projected receiving totals.

After long consideration, I think I like the over the most in this matchup at 48.5 points. If I had to pick a side (although I don't love either) it would be on Seattle +3.5. I like both offenses, but it might give a slight edge to Seattle's defense overall playing at home.

Six of the Seahawks’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line, and five of the 49ers' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line. Cheer for points this Thursday night!

Props:

  • Deebo Samuel has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six appearances against the Seahawks, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Deebo Samuel has recorded 79+ receiving yards in six of his seven previous appearances against the Seahawks.
  • Geno Smith has recorded 284+ passing yards in each of the Seahawks’ last four games.
  • Seattle's top boundary CBs primarily run press coverage (third-highest rate) per Next Gen Stats. The 49ers highest targeted WRs against press coverage include Jauan Jennings (35%) and Brandon Aiyuk (30%).
  • Still, both 49ers WRs will have tough matchups to overcome against Seattle CB Riq Woolen. Per Next Gen Stats, Woolen has been targeted on just 12 of his 130 coverage snaps this season, the 2nd-lowest target rate (9.2%) of a cornerback this season (min. 60 coverage snaps).
  • Woolen has allowed five receptions for 41 yards, with three passes defended, including an interception. Woolen has been targeted more often in man (17.1%) than zone (5.6%) this season.
  • Last week was the week to be on Brandon Aiyuk, given how bad the Cardinals are in tight coverage. It's a different story on the road for Aiyuk in Week 6.
  • The 49ers WR has finished under 64.5 receiving yards in 9 of his last 12 road games (75%).
  • Deebo Samuel has gone OVER his receiving yards prop in three of four games this season. After a down game where he only had four touches, I expect him to bounce back against the Seahawks given his strong track record against this team.
  • Samuel was also heavily targeted the last time Shanahan faced Mike Macdonald's defense. Last year with Macdonald in Baltimore, Samuel earned a team-high 12 targets in the SF vs. BAL matchup.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, nearly half (212 of 421) of DK Metcalf's receiving yards have come on go routes this season, 65 more receiving yards than the next closest receiver (CeeDee Lamb, 147). Metcalf has aligned as an outside receiver on a team-high 84.0% of his offensive snaps, accumulating 315 receiving yards on such an alignment (3rd-most in the NFL). The 49ers defense has allowed just 5.9 yards per attempt to wide receivers aligned out wide this season, the 3rd-fewest in the NFL. Passers have recorded a 58.3 passer rating when targeting outside wide receivers against the 49ers this season, the 3rd-lowest in the NFL.
  • However, they still rank 29th in EPA/attempt on passes 20-plus air yards. Metcalf will make one or two big plays in this matchup.

My Picks:

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