NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)
Our model creates expert lines for every NFL game. We compare the expert lines to current point spreads to identify potential value for every NFL game. You can find the full NFL Betting Picks: Projected Spreads Report here. And here are a few picks and notes for Week 7.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)
Browns vs. Ravens
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Browns | +5.0 | +6.5 | +6.2 | 51% | -3% |
| Ravens | -5.0 | -6.5 | -6.2 | 49% | -6% |
Lean Ravens -6.5, Lean OVER 45.5
The Ravens have been a bit of an enigma this season. They’ve led or been tied at halftime of every game they’ve played this season yet they sit at just 3-3. The offense has been fantastic, ranking top four in run, pass, and total offensive DVOA, but they’ve found ways to stall out in big moments. Luckily, I don’t think that’ll be an issue against the Browns.
The Browns rank near dead last in defensive DVOA, just ahead of the Lions. The Ravens will be able to move the ball and score early in this divisional matchup.
While most opponents have found ways to come back in the second half against Baltimore, Cleveland may find this task difficult. Their pass game, led by Jacoby Brissett, just isn’t built to come back, especially when their defense struggles to get stops. This is a get right situation for Baltimore and a win here could give them a little more comfort going forward for the division.
Lions vs. Cowboys
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Lions | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.7 | 49% | -6% |
| Cowboys | -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.7 | 51% | -3% |
Lions +7, OVER 49
Dak Prescott is poised to return to the Cowboys’ lineup on Sunday against the Lions. He will look to inject a shot of life into an offense that ranked 21st in offensive DVOA with Cooper Rush at the helm. They’ll take on a Detroit defense coming off of a bye that needs a good performance to get their season back on track.
This game will likely be determined by the matchup in the trenches between the Dallas defensive line and the Detroit offensive line. The Cowboys’ defense has excelled when they’ve been able to get pressure, which they’ve done at a league-leading pace. However, the Detroit offensive line has allowed the least amount of sacks in the league.
A rested Lions team could move the ball on this stout defense, and though Dallas is the better team, Detroit is more than capable of keeping this one closer than the line indicates.
Giants vs. Jaguars
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Giants | +1.5 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 53% | +2% |
| Jaguars | -1.5 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 47% | -11% |
Lean Jags -3, UNDER 42.5
When was the last time a 5-1 team was a 3-point underdog versus a 2-4 team? Vegas is begging you to take the Giants, and early bet percentages show most people are listening.
It’s no secret the Giants are a run-first offense. They have averaged over 160 ground yards per game which is almost more than they have averaged through the air. Jacksonville’s rushing defense has only given up an average of 89 rushing yards per game, which is even skewed heavily by the 210 rushing yards given up to the Eagles in week 4.
If Jacksonville can limit Saquon and force Daniel Jones to utilize the limited weapons he has at receiver, the Giants won’t be scoring many points. The question will be if the Jaguar’s offense can come through with the points.
Chiefs vs. 49ers
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Chiefs | -1.0 | -1.5 | -2.0 | 51% | -1% |
| 49ers | +1.0 | +1.5 | +2.0 | 49% | -7% |
49ers +3, Lean UNDER 48.5
In a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, both the Chiefs and 49ers look to rebound from their week six losses. Kansas City backers will cite Patrick Mahomes’ career 11-3 record following a loss, but this winning percentage is no deviation from the young QB’s all time record of 54-15.
Conversely, San Francisco has historically thrived in this spot. The 49ers duo of HC Kyle Shanahan and QB Jimmy Garopppolo are 3-0 ATS and SU as a home underdog, and they have covered six straight home games dating back to 2021.
The Chiefs are undoubtedly the better team, but this line stinks. San Francisco should find success running the ball, and their defense should be able to keep a lid on the Chiefs explosive offense.
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread†refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.