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NFL Week 7 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 7 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 7 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 7 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Packers -2.5
  • Eagles -3
  • Rams -7

Top Underdogs:

  • Chiefs +1.5
  • Titans +9.5

Top Totals:

  • IND/MIA over 43.5
  • CLE/CIN under 41.5
  • ATL/SEA over 51.5
  • DET/MIN under 50.5
  • PHI/NYG under 42.5
  • CAR/WAS under 51.5

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 15 of the Colts' last 18 games.
  • The Colts are 1-1 ATS as favorites this season and more than 70% ATS as an underdog (2-2 overall).
  • The Colts are 7-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Dolphins have lost seven of their last eight games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • Miami is below 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 2-6 overall since 2023.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted back to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 win against the Patriots, they came back from a first-half deficit.
  • The Dolphins have lost their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • Six of the last eight Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts' last nine games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (seven starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, six of the Dolphins’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

There are major question marks on both sides in this matchup. Anthony Richardson was close to playing last week and Colts head coach Shane Steichen confirmed on Friday that Richardson will start Sunday’s game against the Dolphins.

As for Miami...is there any hope for this offense with Tyler Huntley? Although nobody would care to admit it, Huntley improved from his first start to his second against the Patriots, and coming off a bye week should allow him to progress in this offensive system.

And this Colts defense is just so bad. With two weeks to prepare and a healthy stable of running backs, I'm optimistic we can at least get a semblance of a normal Dolphins offensive performance in this spot.

Especially on the ground, where De'Von Achane is progressing through the concussion protocol and is primed to play.

Miami needs to get this rushing attack going. Per Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins have generated -110 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL, after posting the 2nd-most (+408) last season. Achane has recorded -78 rushing yards over expected while forcing a 23.6% missed tackle rate this season, compared to +279 rushing yards over expected and a 35.6% missed tackle force rate last season. The Colts’ defense has allowed a league-high 800 expected rushing yards on designed runs this season, but only +34 rushing yards over expected, 18th-most in the NFL.

Miami's offense might never get "right" until Tua Tagovailoa returns, but this is a great spot for them to at least get back on track.

This matchup is between two of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL, so I like the over at 43.5 points. Miami's defense is nothing special, and they benefited from layup matchups against the Titans/Patriots - although their run defense was exposed. The Colts backfield is banged up between Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon, so we could see a healthy dose of Tyler Goodson - who looked explosive last week.

As for the sides, I want to see where the spread settles closer to Sunday. Traditionally, you want to bet on the Colts as favorites and fade the Dolphins as underdogs. But once we get 100% confirmation about Richardson starting, I think we might see some Dolphins love. That will give us a better number on the Colts.

Props:

In the Week 5 Dolphins game, Tyreek Hill was the top target with nine (29% Target share), catching six passes for 69 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception, with a long of 21 yards and 18 yards after the catch. Hill was targeted two times in the red zone but had no catches or touchdowns. He came close to a TD but was ruled out of bounds. It was Hill’s best performance of the season since Tagovailoa’s injury. Given that I think we see the Dolphins offense bounce back against this bad Colts defense, I am taking over Hill’s receptions prop this week. All six of the closest comparable WRs to Hill this season that have faced the Colts have exceeded their projected receptions.

Michael Pittman Jr. was targeted five times, catching three passes for 35 yards and one TD on a jump ball from Joe Flacco in Week 6. He was not limited despite entering the game with a back injury. But he took a backseat to Josh Downs regarding target share for the second straight game. With Anthony Richardson eventually back under center, only one Colts pass-catcher will likely be relevant. And I'd bet it's Downs who is the most reliable based on his ability to command targets at an elite level. He has the fourth-highest target rate per route run this season.

Pittman has only exceeded 4.5 catches twice this season in games where Flacco spent the most time at quarterback. He’s 3-0 toward the under at this number with Anthony Richardson under center.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Titans are 5-7 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have won the first half in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Titans have lost 11 of their last 13 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Bills have won 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in five of their last eight games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 14-6 as a favorite since the start of last season. But they are just 9-11 ATS as a favorite.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 21 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won each of their last 11 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Bills are 10-2 and 6-6 ATS at home since the start of 2023.

Totals:

  • Each of the Bills' last five home games has gone OVER the total points line. They were 2-0 toward the over this season.
  • Five of the Bills' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bills' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line. (15 of their last 20 road games per Covers.com)
  • Seven of the Bills’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 13-8-1 toward the under in their last 22 games.

Overall

I hate to tab this game as a let-down spot for the Bills, but this is exactly what this matchup is shaping up to be.  There's utmost confidence by the public in Buffalo at home to destroy the Titans playing on the road.

And it's hard to argue with the surface-level logic. The Titans are reportedly set to start backup Mason Rudolph at QB. Josh Allen is great and plays at home. Easy game, right? Not so fast.

Buffalo is notorious for playing down to its competition, especially when it plays as heavy favorites. The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games against teams with losing records.

I understand the faith in Buffalo, given the quarterback discrepancy. But if the Titans want to win (and cover) the massive nine-point spread, it will undoubtedly be with their rushing game on offense.

The Bills defense ranks dead last in yards per rushing attempt this season. The Titans’ run game tends to be very boom-or-bust, but I'd project them to have success on the ground, similarly to last week, with Tony Pollard leading the charge. Tyjae Spears doesn't appear likely to play, as he's been listed week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Pollard has 62 rushing yards in four of his five games played this season – all contests where he saw at least 16 carries.

Given that Buffalo tries to limit big plays, I'd envision the Titans doing their best to play conservatively with Rudolph giving him more short underneath throws to work with. With Calvin Ridley's squeaky wheel as loud as ever, I'd imagine his role expands beyond being just a deep threat (which has been unsuccessful six weeks in).

I also don't expect Amari Cooper to just fix the Buffalo passing game immediately, especially against the Titans pass defense that ranks eighth in EPA/pass attempt and first in fewest yards per pass attempt faced this season.

The Titans’ defense is also superior to the Jets in one specific area. They can stop the run - league-high run stuff rate of 28.4%.

Per Next Gen Stats, Bills rushers have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage at the 3rd-lowest rate on rushes between the tackles this season (26.5%) while also averaging 3.5 yards after contact per carry on such carries (6th). The Titans boast the league's best inside run defense with the lowest yards per carry (2.9) and success rate allowed (32.7%).

Props

Calvin Ridley was targeted eight times but managed zero receptions in Week 6. Ridley had 133 air yards, a 54% air yard share, and a 30% Target share. And he scored zero fantasy points as a receiver. He went OFF after the game based on his lack of early-game usage. I thought last week was the squeaky wheel game. This week, I'm expecting even more noise from the Ridley wheel. After the Week 6 contests game, head coach Brian Callahan doubled down on the approach to getting Ridley more involved. I’m doubling down on Ridley to catch more balls in Week 7. Five of the last six most comparable WRs to Ridley that have faced Buffalo this season have exceeded their receptions projection.

My Picks

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Browns have lost seven of their last eight games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 4-1 as home underdogs.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games.
  • Cleveland is 8-3 on the ML at home.
  • The Bengals are 13-6 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC North opponents.

Totals:

  • Six of the Browns' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Browns' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Browns' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 13-10-1 toward the over in their last 24 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season.
  • Four of the Bengals’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bengals' last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bengals' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line

Overall:

The Browns’ defense showed up big last week against a talented Eagles unit, giving their team a chance to win in Week 6. Alas, Deshaun Watson's woes continue to plague the Browns offensively, and losing No. 1 WR Amari Cooper in a trade to Buffalo won't make the offense function any better.

The Browns offensive line is still a mess, and it remains to be seen how impactful Nick Chubb’s return will be. If anything, I'd expect to see him just active to inspire his teammates, regardless of his actual on-field play/usage. Jerome Ford will be out, setting up this backfield to be spearheaded by D'Onta Foreman/Pierre Strong Jr., with Chubb eased back into action.

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said Wednesday that there is no exact number of snaps or touches the team has set for Chubb in Sunday’s game against the Bengals, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.

The Browns’ defense tends to play much better at home, and they have a strong track record against this Bengals offense. Joe Burrow is 0-4 at Cleveland since 2020. Burrow's struggles against the AFC North have been very apparent, given Cincy has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC North opponents.

Their second AFC North matchup of the season on the road will be no cakewalk offensively.

But ultimately, the Bengals' explosive game-breakers, like Ja'Marr Chase and Chase Brown, will be the difference in this contest. Per Next Gen Stats, the Browns have allowed the 3rd-most yards due to missed tackles this season (329). They have also allowed explosive plays on the ground at the 6th-highest rate in the league (14.7%) despite contacting rushers behind the line on 43.5% of rushes (7th-highest).

I also like the Bengals’ defense against Watson. Every team Cleveland faces increases its defensive pressure rate tenfold. Per Next Gen Stats, Watson has been sacked on 12.4% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the league. Watson has taken 31 sacks, the most in the NFL by 11. Watson has accumulated -61.0 EPA on sacks, the fewest EPA on sacks through Week 6 since 2016 (next closest this season: Caleb Williams, -38.3).

I also think the Bengals' improvements on defense last week should not go unnoticed. They are finally getting their defensive line healthy, which should improve their run defense in this matchup. If the Browns can't run the ball effectively, I'm very skeptical this offense will succeed, even against a poor Bengals defense.

Divisional matchups between familiar opponents can always turn into close contests, so I won't pick sides here. Ultimately, I think the Bengals will pull through with a big play or two, but I am not expecting this to be a pretty win.

With the trends highly backing over on both sides, I'll side with regression kicking in on the under. Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 8-3 toward the under at home.

Props:

Tight end David Njoku saw seven targets (30.4% Target share), hauling in five receptions for 31 yards, with a long catch of 27 yards in Week 6. Njoku had one red zone target but did not make a catch or score. Njoku ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. Jerry Jeudy’s targets have gotten nuked since Njoku returned. Well, at least that was the thesis before Amari Cooper got dealt to the Bills. There's a massive target and air yards share gap in this offense now with Cooper out of the way. I'd expect Jeudy/Njoku to take on the majority of targets (from Watson, keep in mind), while Cedric Tillman should also see expanded work.

Simply put, this 4.5 catches line for Njoku is too low, given the loss of Cooper. Njoku is practicing in full and should be a huge part of the Browns’ passing game for Week 7 against the Bengals. Njoku has at least 5 catches in 10 of his last 15 games played.

My Picks:

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games and are 2-4 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites (5-10 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Eleven of their last 14 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is just 12-11 against the spread over its last 22 games.
  • Houston is 2-4 as road favorites. 5-9-1 ATS as a favorite (31%).
  • The Texans have lost each of their last nine road games against NFC opponents.
  • HOU, as a road underdog, is 9-4-1 ATS (69%) and 56% ATS as an underdog overall.
  • Green Bay is 11-7 at home in its last 18 home games, 10-8 ATS
  • 43% ATS over its last 16 home games (6-8-1)
  • GB as a favorite: 8-14-1 ATS
  • The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 12-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-3 ATS. Green Bay was 4-7 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Texans have an implied team total of 22.5.

Totals:

  • The Texans have gone under in 15 of their last 25 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 1-4 O/U this season. Four of the Texans’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 17-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5 and 24 first-half points in Week 6.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 11 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers have scored first in eight of their last nine games.

Overall:

Finally, a marquee matchup between two of the league's most exciting young quarterbacks. But will it live up to the hype?

Not if both teams decide to run the football instead of letting their quarterbacks sling it across the yard. I see advantages in both running games in this spot.

Per Next Gen Stats, Josh Jacobs has led the Packers on the ground with 464 rushing yards on 108 carries this season, forcing 24 missed tackles, 6th-most in the NFL.

After generating -86 rushing yards over expected in 2023, Jacobs has bounced back this season with +58 RYOE, 12th-most among running backs. The Texans have missed 29.3% of their tackle attempts on run plays this season, allowing 223 rushing yards off of missed tackles (Both 2nd-most in the NFL).

I could see Green Bay looking to the ground game at a decent clip, similar to last week when they posted a -2% pass rate over expectation. Given how elite the Houston Texans’ pass rush is, it’d be wise not to get into a super-dependent dropback passing game.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Texans have generated a league-high 43.1% pressure rate this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to generate a league-low -67.9 passing EPA when doing so.

Jordan Love has completed 18 of his 45 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions when facing pressure this season, recording a completion percentage over expected of -12.2% on such pass attempts, the lowest in the NFL.

If the Texans can make the Packers one-dimensional, it would dramatically increase their chances of victory. If they give up huge chunks of yardage gains, they will get ripped by play-action.

Per Next Gen Stats, Love has completed 20 of his 34 pass attempts off play action this season, recording 341 yards, four touchdowns, and a 132.1 passer rating (2nd in the NFL).

Love has generated +48.2 EPA on play-action passes since becoming a starter in 2023, 5th-most in the NFL over that span. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown five touchdowns off play action against the Texans this season, recording a 126.4 passer rating (3rd-highest in the NFL).

The Texans’ run game took center stage last week in a soft matchup against the Patriots with Joe Mixon back in the fold. Although the final box score suggested Houston dominated the trenches, it was just a few big rushes between Mixon and Dameon Pierce.

Mixon’s 23% rushing success rate ranked in the bottom 10 last week. The Patriots’ defense had the third-highest stuff rate in Week 6.

The Packers’ run defense has been solid-seventh-lowest EPA/rush allowed this season-and Houston's run game continues to be overall underwhelming. At times, Texans OC Bobby Slowik’s commitment to it is problematic. I'd enter this game with the mindset of being aggressive, but I'm not sure Slowik will see it in the same way. Woof.

The lines for this game align perfectly with my BettingPros projection, so I don't have a major value proposition from a sides or totals perspective. What I can say is that I'm not nearly as confident in this game projecting as a high-flying shootout given both teams’ reliance on their respective ground games.

Both pass defenses rank inside the top 10 in terms of EPA/pass attempt, while Houston has the fourth-lowest yards per attempt faced through the air.  With the sides likely determined by a field goal (or missed field goal by the Packers) or last possession by one of these talented QBs, I'll opt for the under at 47.5 points. But I’ll be honest. I don’t feel great about it. This might be a better prop game to attack.

Props:

Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft lead the Packers in targets off play action this season (11 each). Nobody else has more than five.

Without Nico Collins, wide receiver Tank Dell was Stroud's go-to target, receiving a team-high nine targets (29% Target share), pulling in seven catches for 57 yards with a touchdown in Week 6. Dell was targeted once in the red zone, catching it for a touchdown.

Dell had 71 air yards, 28% air yard share. Stefon Diggs had 94 air yards and 37% air yard share, taking over a larger piece of downfield looks vacated by Nico Collins. Dell led the team in routes, running a route on 89% of the dropbacks, followed by Diggs (77%).

Two games without Collins, dating back to last season, and Dell has averaged just over 11 targets per game. Go back to the over. The last six most comparable WRs to face Green Bay had ALL exceeded their receiving yards projection this season.

My Picks:

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

Sides:

  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-4 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 8-13-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-5 straight up.
  • However, the underdogs have won 10 of the Falcons' last 18 games.
  • The Falcons are 4-5 ATS on the road, 2-4 ATS as road favorites, and 5-12 ATS on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won four of their last five games.
  • Atlanta is 9-4 on the money line as home favorites (14-8 at home overall).
  • The Falcons ATS as a home favorite are 5-8 ATS (38%)
  • The favorites have won 18 of the Seahawks' last 21 games.
  • Seattle is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games played (4-9-1 over the last 12 games).
  • Seattle is 10-3 as a favorite in the last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Seahawks are 4-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Seattle is 4-3 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • Seattle as the road underdog ATS is 6-8 (43%). As away underdogs on the money line? 3-11 (21%).

Totals:

  • Atlanta is 2-2 towards the over this season at home, averaging just under 46 points per game.
  • The Falcons are 3-3 O/U this season.
  • Four of the Falcons' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Seattle, off extended rest, will head to the East Coast to take on the surging Atlanta Falcons, winners of three straight. The Seahawks have dropped three straight after starting the season 3-0, courtesy of a cupcake opening schedule. Seattle has been terrible against the number all season, with a 1-4-1 ATS record.

However, I love Geno Smith in this spot against the Falcons defense. Per Next Gen Stats, Geno Smith has been at his best when kept clean this season, recording a 61.7% success rate when not pressured (1st), compared to 30.2% when under pressure (21st). The Falcons have only pressured the quarterback on 23.0% of their dropbacks, the only team under 25%. Despite this, they keep the offense in front of them as they have the 2nd-lowest air yards per attempt (5.4) and have only allowed 4.1 yards after catch per reception (2nd) on plays without pressure.

Even though the Falcons have been able to "limit" production without a pass rush to some extent, Smith's strengths from a clean pocket look like an edge to me. Seattle loves to throw as they rank first in pass rate over expectation this season.

The Falcons are solid at defending the short-quick passing game but have struggled against long and intermediate throws.

Seattle's run game should also be solid, given that Atlanta doesn't do much to stack the box against the run. Atlanta has been horrible defending lightbox fronts (3rd-most yards allowed) while using their defense in that formation at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.

Last week, this was a smash spot for Chuba Hubbard. Seattle ranks sixth in yards per carry against light boxes and first in explosive run rate.

The Falcons are also bad against rushing inside the tackles (29th in EPA/rush). Seattle ranks third in EPA/rush inside the tackles, with seven rushing touchdowns.

Seattle will move the ball in this game, as will the Falcons.

In the last three weeks, Seattle's defense has allowed an average of well over 400 yards of offense to the Lions (okay), Giants (yikes), and 49ers (okay). Their run defense has been a sieve, but DT Byron Murphy is expected to play this week. Cornerback Tariq Woolen will miss the game.

Either way, Seattle's defense has struggled against better competition, and I'd expect nothing less with the Falcons playing at home.

I don't expect nearly the same rushing production we saw from Atlanta last week - especially in the red zone where Seattle ranks No.1 in EPA/rush - but their passing game can pick up the slack. Seattle's been vastly overrated all season, so I'll take the Falcons at home, laying three points. My BettingPros projections had this game closer to Atlanta -3.5. And although the total is already high - it's been bet up since opening at 48 - I am riding the over train.

Shootout on deck. Five of the Seahawks’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, DK Metcalf has accumulated 212 of his 469 yards and both of his touchdowns on go routes, the most yards gained by any player on a single route this season. Metcalf has been particularly effective at go routes this season compared to previous years, posting career-highs in catch rate over expected (+4.9%) and EPA per route (0.12).

Metcalf led Seattle in targets with 11 (23% Target share) for the Seahawks last Thursday night but only managed 48 yards on three receptions, one of them being a 30-yard gain. Metcalf was targeted three times in the red zone but caught just one and did not score a touchdown. Metcalf had 166 air yards and a 41% air-yard share, making him the quintessential buy-low candidate based on his opportunity alone. Atlanta has allowed 7th-most receiving yards (81) and third-most targets (9.6) to opposing No.1 WRs this season.

The Falcons have allowed the 6th-most completions per game to quarterbacks this season (23.2). Geno Smith is on a five-game streak of going OVER his pass completion prop with at least 26 completions in every game since Week 2. Metcalf has three games with 100-plus yards and three with fewer than 60 yards this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, Bijan Robinson has faced a light box on 62.2% of his carries this season, the 3rd-highest among running backs (minimum 25 carries).

Robinson has generated the fastest average speed among running backs by the time he reaches the line of scrimmage at 11.54 mph. When facing light box defenses, Robinson pairs this speed with shiftiness in space, as he has forced 15 missed tackles against light boxes (1st) for an extra 81 yards gained from such missed tackles (T-3rd). The Seahawks have allowed a league-high 6.3 yards per carry on designed runs when utilizing light box defenses this season.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Sides

  • The Lions are 18-8 ATS as a favorite. The Lions are 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 13-6 ATS over their last 19 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Lions have won their last 11 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last seven games against the Vikings.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 11 games. They are 5-0 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • All but five of the Vikings' last 19 games have been decided by eight points or less (73%).
  • The Vikings have scored first in each of their last four games.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, undefeated teams (5-0 or better), playing at home, and coming off a bye week are 9-0 all-time and have won by an average of 19.8 points.

Totals

  • Each of the last five games between the Lions and Vikings has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Lions' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Vikings' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 4-1 toward the under this season. 2-0 toward the under at home this season, averaging 40.5 points per game.
  • Teams averaged 42 points in Minnesota, 2-6-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
  • The Vikings are 2-8-1 toward the under in Minnesota since the start of 2023.

Overall:

The Vikings under Sam Darnold have been nearly flawless. They’re 5-0 straight up and ATS. They've exceeded expectations every single week against every opponent, although things did get a bit dicey in the second half against the New York Jets in London.

Minnesota was limited to just two field goals. Overall, the Vikings only had one touchdown drive. The team missed running back Aaron Jones (who is questionable to play this week).

Darnold posted his worst PFF passing grade of the season, or at least that's what I assumed. In Week 4, Darnold posted an even worse PFF passing grade.

In fact, since Week 4, only Will Levis has a lower PFF passing grade than Darnold. A stark difference from Weeks 1-3 as PFF's third-highest graded QB. More film on Darnold in this offense might be starting to expose him a bit. And he's hardly been mistake-free. Darnold has thrown an interception in four of five games this season. The Lions’ defense has forced seven interceptions this season, including an interception in all five games, per Next Gen Stats.

Detroit loves to play man coverage, and that wasn't super successful for the Vikings’ passing game against the Jets.

Per Next Gen Stats, Darnold completed just two of 10 passes for 53 yards against the Jets’ man coverage in Week 5 after having led the NFL in yards per attempt (12.3), touchdown passes (9), and total EPA (+27.7) against man coverage through the first four weeks of the season.

Darnold completed just 1 of 6 passes for 27 yards when targeting Justin Jefferson against man coverage in Week 5. In Weeks 1-4, Darnold completed 7 of 10 such passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns when targeting Jefferson, the most such yards between any QB-receiver duo during that span. The Lions’ defense leads the NFL in interceptions (6) and completion percentage over expected allowed (-12.9%) when playing man coverage this season.

It's very possible that with Halloween around the corner, we start to see Darnold turn back into a pumpkin. He's been exposed a bit in the last two weeks. Although I think his rest-of-season outlook relies somewhere in the middle of Weeks 1-3 and Weeks 4-5, I'm not fully convinced on backing him as a slight home favorite against the ATS champion Lions.

Then again, this also feels like a potential let-down spot for the Lions. They lost their best defensive player for the season, Aidan Hutchinson. We know that, typically, this Lions offense doesn't play nearly as well on the road as it does at home.

The Vikings defense might be the No.1 unit in the NFL.

Coming off additional rest, I think the Vikings will be able to throw the kitchen sink at Goff. And even if they can't completely stop the Lions’ run game, they can provide more friction than any defense Detroit has faced thus far. We've already seen Detroit's offense stall out against Tampa Bay and Arizona this season.

When these lines first opened, I was blown away by the total being over 50 points. The Lions have scored 40-plus points in back-to-back weeks, but we know that's not sustainable.  The Vikings create game environments that tend to go under the total, especially when they play at home.

I'm slamming the under at 50.5 points. Minnesota and Detroit is a matchup between two teams that rank first and sixth respectively in EPA/play allowed on defense this season.

Props:

David Montgomery has scored a TD in all five games this season

Jameson Williams has over 75 receiving yards in four of five games this season. No team has allowed more fantasy points to WRs this season than the Vikings (per game).

Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over his rushing yards lines (50.5) in four straight games to go along with the over on his rushing attempts prop (10.5) in every single game this season. In two games against Minnesota last season, Gibbs averaged 55 rushing yards and 14 carries per game.

My Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Sides:

  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Eagles are 10-12 O/U since the start of 2023, but they are 3-9 toward the over on the road.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last seven games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 4-11-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 21 games - 13-8 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last six road games.
  • The Giants are 9-5 ATS over their last 14 games.
  • The Giants have lost eight of their last 12 road games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1). They are 1-2 ATS at home this season.

Totals:

  • The Eagles are 11-12 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 4-9 toward the over on the road.
  • Six of the Eagles' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 7-3 toward the OVER at home since start of 2023
  • The Giants are 6-9 toward the over in the last 15 games
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in seven of their last 12 games.
  • Six of the Giants’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Giants' last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

The Giants and Eagles both boast top-six red-zone defenses this season. Given the familiarity of these NFC East divisional rivals, my initial lean on this contest strongly shades toward the under. I got it early at 45.5 back on Monday, but I still like it down to 42.5 points. Points will be a premium in this spot, regardless of how many touchdowns Saquon Barkley scores in a "revenge" game against his old team, even though Barkley will be slated for a strong outing against a run defense that ranks 31st in yards per attempt and rushing yards allowed over expectation (+184). Before last week’s disappointment, Barkley had rushed for at least 84 yards in all four games for the Eagles, including 95-plus in three.

The Eagles’ road games heavily trend towards unders, as do the Giants at home. If you are looking for points, MetLife Stadium ain't it.

New York's defense showed up in the bright lights against the high-powered Bengals offense in Week 6, and they typically play better at home. This same matchup totaled just 37 points in New York last season, and I'd expect more of the same in Week 7.

Ultimately, I feel the Eagles have too much talent and a motivated Barkley to cover the three-point spread. All the on-paper matchups highly favor the Eagles on both offense and defense.

Philly's played in a bunch of weird games this season and were fighting an uphill battle to cover a massive 9.5-point spread against the Browns last week. But had it not been for a blocked FG touchdown return (10-point swing), the Eagles might be viewed differently going into this matchup.

Still prefer the under as the best play. Note that the Giants' OL took another major hit in Week 6, losing LT Andrew Thomas to a season-ending injury.

Props

DeVonta Smith had a solid day in Week 6, catching three of his four targets (16% Target share) for 64 yards and a touchdown, including a 45-yard catch. Smith's production always booms when someone else in the receiving corps misses time. Most notably, last season, he went over 57.5 receiving yards in every game that Dallas Goedert missed in 2023. He has also gone over 57.5 receiving yards in every single game this season (four games).

Wan'Dale Robinson has recorded the most targets (49) and receptions (33) on targets short of the sticks this season, resulting in the 2nd-most receiving yards (244) on such targets.

Robinson has been effective in space, recording the 2nd-most missed tackles forced (12) among wide receivers this season.

The Giants have averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 38 inside rushes with Tyrone Tracy on the field, compared to 3.5 yards per carry on 55 inside rushes with Tracy off the field this season.

Tracy has recorded a league-high 119 rushing yards on inside runs since Week 5, including 6.3 yards per carry. Matchup: Opposing offenses have run between the tackles on just 34.5% of designed runs against the Eagles’ defense this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

My Picks

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams

Sides

  • The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
  • The Raiders are 10-5-1 ATS over their last 16 games.
  • LV is 12-6-1 ATS at home. They are 4-3-1 as a home underdogs ATS. But just 2-5 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last six road games.
  • The Raiders have lost eight of their last 10 road games.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 2-10 as underdogs straight up. 1-4 as underdogs this season (2-3 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers.
  • The favorites have won 15 of the Rams' last 16 games.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Raiders' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line and 13-9 toward the under.
  • Four of the Raiders' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Eight of the Rams' last 12 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 10-8 toward the O/U in their last 18 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only five times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

Overall:

The Rams are coming off a much-needed bye week, with reinforcements returning to their starting lineup. WR Cooper Kupp is a game time decision to return after suffering an ankle injury earlier this season. Tackle Joe Noteboom will also miss another game this week.

The last time we saw L.A., they fell just short of a victory against the Green Bay Packers at home, losing 24-19. But a deeper look at that matchup inspires confidence in this Rams team moving forward. They held the Packers to one conversion on third down (1 for 8). They outgained the Packers in total yards. Losing the turnover battle hurt them the most as did failing to punch the ball in the red zone on a first and goal from the 8-yard line. However, the pick-six leveled the playing field.

Regardless, this offense moved the ball efficiently into Packers' territory on every single drive. With Kupp potentially back in action and a strong run game fueled by a rested Kyren Williams, I like the Rams offense.

The Rams defense is obviously the main concern regarding their ability to cover the 6.5-point home spread.

But the Raiders don't have much to work with on offense. Davante Adams is a Jet. Jakobi Meyers is still hurt. They can't run the ball against any opponent. And the Rams' biggest strength on defense regarding rushing the passer can exploit the Raiders. LA ranks 8th in pressure rate.

I'm not going to overthink this one. Sean McVay, off a bye week, gives the Rams a significant edge over this undermanned Raiders squad. Favorites tend to prevail in Rams' contests, and I see no reason to go away from that trend in this matchup.

The Rams’ offense has every advantage against the Raiders’ porous defense, and I'm unsure Las Vegas has the firepower to strike back. LA's defense showed a little bit of something against the Packers and Rams by limiting third-down conversions, and that should help them dominate this contest.

As for the total, I liked the under early in the week at 44 points. It's down to 43.5 points, and I'll continue to hammer it because I just don't have much faith in the Raiders’ offense behind an immobile second-year quarterback. The Raiders offense tends to disappoint on the road - aside from the Baltimore game earlier this season.

Props:

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Aidan O'Connell doesn't run. Per Next Gen Stats, O'Connell has not attempted a single scramble rush on any of his 442 dropbacks since entering the NFL in 2023. O’Connell is the only quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era to not record a single scramble rush attempt on any dropback (min. 150 dropbacks).

Kyren Williams scored a touchdown in all five games this season and scored seven TD overall. Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight regular season appearances.

My Picks:

  • Rams -7
  • Under 43.5

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders

Sides

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Panthers have lost 14 of their last 16 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 14 of their last 15 games against NFC opponents.
  • Dave Canales went 8-2 ATS with Baker Mayfield on the road in 2023 and is 1-1 in that category this season with Dalton.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games. They are 4-1 ATS and straight up in their last five games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last nine home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites.

Totals

  • Ten of the Panthers' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers' last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Commanders' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-2 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 13-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Panthers have a 21.75 implied team total.

Overall:

Well, I can tell you one thing. I'm not taking the Panthers with the points this week. I’m recalibrating my approach after continuously backing them with points week after week with no success. We've got the league's best rushing offense against the league's worst rushing defense.

The Commanders should be able to control the ball and pace of play with their elite rushing attack. Washington dominated the last two bad defenses it's faced this season - Arizona and Cleveland - and I'd expect more of the same against Carolina.

Now the question is, can the Panthers keep the game close enough to cover? Or to at least put this game over the massive 51.5-point total? A game between two of the worst teams in the NFL last season has the highest projected total on the slate. What a world we live in.

I'm hesitant to pull the trigger on the over, given that both teams will seek victory with their ground game more than through the air.

The Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard has been a beast, and I expect him to get heavy usage in this game.

Per Next Gen Stats, Hubbard has run for 485 yards and two touchdowns across 86 carries this season, generating +129 rush yards over expected, 5th-most in the NFL.

Hubbard has done an excellent job at getting downhill quickly, averaging a 2.55 seconds time to the line of scrimmage, the quickest among any ball carrier with at least 40 carries this season. Hubbard has taken advantage of light boxes as well, with 355 of his rushing yards coming with less than seven defenders in the box, 78 yards more than the next closest player. The Commanders have utilized a light box on 70.3% of their defensive snaps this season, the 6th-highest in the NFL, allowing 5.5 yards per carry on such snaps (19th in the NFL).

Hubbard has gained more yards than expected on 55.4% of his carries this season, the highest among running backs (min. 50 carries).

In total, Hubbard has generated +129 rushing yards over expected in 2024, 5th-most in the league. Hubbard has been effective rushing outside the tackles, recording the most yards per carry on such rushes among running backs (7.9, min. 25 carries) and the 4th-most RYOE (+110). The Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most yards per carry to outside rushes this season (5.9).

Needless to say, Carolina will to their best to establish the run to keep their defense off the field in all facets. Because I think the Commanders pass defense at home can play better than most expect. Who leads the NFL in the fewest passing yards per game at home this season? Washington.

I've often cited how Dallas plays better at home, but maybe that was more a trend related to Dan Quinn. Because in eight full quarters of football played in the nation's capital, the Commanders have allowed just 15.5 points per game (2-0 toward the under). And when Washington holds teams to under 20 points, games go toward the under.

Give me the under at 51.5 points.

Props:

Hubbard has over 90 rushing yards in his last four games this season. The Commanders have allowed 715 rushing yards to opposing running backs (5th-most in the NFL). Every running back they have faced has gone OVER their projected rushing totals this season.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

Sides:

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 14 of the 49ers' last 18 games.
  • SF is 13-6 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023. So far, in 2024, they are 2-1 ATS at home. Covered against Patriots/Jets, not against Arizona.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread twice in their last 10 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-9 ATS as road favorites in their last 18 games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Chiefs' last 18 games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the 49ers.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog (87.5%) per BetMGM-highest ATS percentage for any QB as an underdog or favorite among starting QBs.

Totals:

  • Six of the 49ers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 2-1 toward the over at home, averaging 47 points per game.
  • Nine of the Chiefs' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line (11 of the last 14).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 2-1 toward the over at home this season.
  • Each of the 49ers’ last four games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line. The 49ers’ Defensive/Special Teams have scored a touchdown in each of their last two home games.

Overall:

Is the Chiefs offense bad? No. It's just not been very flashy. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs offense has recorded the 2nd-highest overall success rate this season (50.2%) behind only the Lions (50.3%), despite generating an explosive play at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL (10.3%).

The Chiefs’ lack of explosiveness specifically centers around their rushing offense-the Chiefs have generated an explosive play on just 4.0% of their run plays this season, the lowest rate of any offense in a season since 2016. However, the Chiefs have recorded a 51.3% rushing success rate this season, the second-highest of any offense in a season since 2016 (2024 Rams, 52.8%). Of the Chiefs’ six explosive runs this season, two have been Patrick Mahomes scramble attempts.

The TLDR version of the Next Gen Stats. The Chiefs have been efficient on offense. Nothing more. Nothing less. They rank seventh in first downs per game.

But coming off a bye week, I bet they look to generate more explosive plays with rookie Xavier Worthy. Andy Reid spoke about Worthy's development: “He keeps getting better, and that's exciting."

They could use Worthy a lot in this matchup. The 49ers defense has allowed 278 deep passing yards this season, the sixth-most in the NFL.

I also expect KC to run the ball effectively. Per Next Gen Stats, Chiefs rushers have been tackled for a loss or no gain on a league-low 9.4% of their designed runs this season, the lowest rate in a season by any offense in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

In a similar vein, Chiefs rushers have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 31.3% of their designed runs this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL behind the Rams (30.3%). The 49ers defense ranks below-average in both percentage of designed runs tackled for a loss or no gain (16.5%) and percentage of designed runs contact behind the line of scrimmage this season (37.0%).

As for the 49ers offense against KC's defense.... here's what I expect.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs have played man coverage on two-thirds (66.7%) of their total snaps with a single high safety this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL behind the Jaguars (72.0%).

Overall, the Chiefs have allowed 6.1 yards per attempt when playing man coverage this season, identical to their average last season (6.1). Brock Purdy faced man coverage on 63.4% of his dropbacks against the Chiefs defense in Super Bowl LVIII, his second-highest rate faced in his career (incl. postseason). The 49ers are 1-3 when Purdy has faced man coverage on at least 50% of his dropbacks.

I also expect KC to thwart SF's run game. Jordan Mason is banged up and has slowed down dramatically since his hot start. His rushing yards have dropped in three straight games. And no team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to RBs this season than the Chiefs. Fourth in fewest yards per carry allowed (3.7), 6th in fewest EPA/rush allowed, and third in rushing yards allowed above expectation (-0.30).

Betting on this game can really come down to a few simple principles. Bet on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games as underdogs. And the 49ers have been one of the most overrated teams at home dating back to last season. Take the Chiefs off the bye. Andy Reid, with extra time to prepare, is the exact spot to back Kansas City.

Every game the 49ers have lost this season has been within six points. 10/10 I will bet on Mahomes in a close game.

Props:

JuJu Smith-Schuster was the top target, hauling in seven receptions on eight targets (23% Target share) for 130 yards, including a long catch of 50 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, JuJu added 83 yards after the catch (+16 YAC over expected), the highest mark by a Chiefs receiver this season.

Smith-Schuster's massive game will boost his receiving lines. But I'd expect Xavier Worthy's role to increase in full post-bye week fashion, so I would be hesitant to go overboard for Smith-Schuster even after the big Monday night game in Week 5. Worthy ran more routes (32 vs 28) than Smith-Schuster. Justin Watson ran more routes than Smith-Schuster as well (29). Smith-Schuster also picked up a hamstring injury this week. It’s not good for a player who has struggled to produce while banged up.

Worthy was targeted six times (17% Target share) in Week 5, catching three passes for 25 yards with a rushing touchdown. The last six most comparable WRs to Worthy have gone OVER their receiving yards prop against the 49ers. The 49ers defense has allowed 278 deep passing yards this season, the 6th-most in the NFL. They also rank eighth-worst in EPA/target on passes of 20-plus air yards this season.

Brandon Aiyuk has been held under 50 receiving yards in five of six games this season. And more tight coverage is coming his way against this KC's man-heavy defense. Brock Purdy has thrown into a tight window (less than 1 yard of separation) on a league-high 23.2% of his total attempts this season.

Purdy has thrown 5 of his 15 total tight window completions to Jauan Jennings, each occurring between Weeks 2-4 this season. The Chiefs defense has forced a tight window on 19.0% of passes this season, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

If you recall, back in the Super Bowl, separation was a big issue for Deebo Samuel in this matchup. He was targeted 11 times but finished with just three catches for 33 yards.

Samuel has been held under 45 receiving yards and averaged four receptions the last two times he has faced Kansas City. Aiyuk has averaged nearly nine targets and 66 receiving yards per game in his last two matchups against the Chiefs. Samuel has fewer than four receptions in three straight games and in six of his last 10 contests.

If I had to make an educated guess on which of these 49ers WRs has the “big” game against KC, I’d envision it would be Aiyuk and not Samuel.

George Kittle has been targeted on 31.4% of his 35 routes run inside the red zone this season, both of which lead all tight ends this season (min. 15 such routes). Kittle has caught 10 of his 11 red zone targets for 65 yards and five touchdowns, including three receptions for 24 yards and two touchdowns on four tight window targets. George Kittle has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances.

My Picks:

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