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NFL Week 8 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my year-to-date results (assumes one unit per prop):

Week Units ROI Record
YTD +1.4 2.9% 17 – 30
4 +0.6 5.2% 5 – 7
5 +5.8 44.6% 4 – 9
6 -7.0 -63.6% 2 – 9
7 +2.0 17.8% 6 – 5

 

NFL Week 8 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars

Etienne scored his first TD of his career last week as he finally took over the backfield from James Robinson. If it wasn’t official enough based on recent week’s usage, James Robinson was traded to the Jets so now there is peace of mind moving forward that Etienne is the clear lead back. Etienne is averaging over 15 opportunities and 114 yards per game over the last three weeks. Denver has been a difficult matchup through the air this season as they have the third-ranked defense in terms of passing yards allowed, but Breece Hall was able to break off a long TD run last week. With Etienne averaging over 6 yards per carry, I think he has a good chance to find the end zone again this week.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are second in the league in rushing attempts per game (30.6) behind only the Eagles. The main difference between the two teams is the Eagles (6-0) have been winning games, while the Falcons (3-4) have not. Regardless of the score, the Falcons’ game plan is to run the ball and they get a rare opportunity as 4-point home favorites this week against the Panthers. Allgeier has been the main beneficiary of the absence of Cordarrelle Patterson, averaging 13.5 rush attempts in the last four weeks. He has 10 red zone carries during that span, including three carries inside the five.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

The Cardinals are tied for last in the league with the Raiders in TDs allowed to TEs (6). They are also allowing the most catches per game (7.3) to TEs this season. Irv Smith has had modest yardage totals this season, but he has found the end zone twice. After being hampered by an injury during training camp, I think the Vikings’ bye should help Smith be more involved in the game plan moving forward, especially in a favorable matchup this week.

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions

The Lions have given up 163 yards per game and have allowed 12 TDs rushing this season, both rank second to last in the league. Mostert has taken over the backfield in Miami and has averaged 19 opportunities (rushes+targets) per game over the last four weeks. He has two TDs over that span and should have a great chance for a third this week.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys

Pollard has the opportunity to be the lead back this week with Elliott expected to be out with a knee injury. The last time Pollard had the chance to lead the backfield was Week 15 of 2020. He ended up playing 90% of the snaps, totaling 122 yards and two TDs. Pollard should have plenty of opportunity to match those totals as 9.5-point home favorites against the Bears this week. The Bears trail only the Browns and Lions in rushing TDs allowed this season.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

  • Hunter Renfrow
  • Anytime TD Odds: +210 (BetRivers)

Renfrow has been hampered by injuries this season but returned to full practice on Thursday. He has yet to find the end zone this season after scoring nine TDs last year. It is worth noting top WR Davante Adams has been dealing with an illness this week but does intend to play Sunday. The Saints have given up six TDs to WRs in the last three weeks, allowing a league-high 34.7 PPG during that span. I like the odds for Renfrow to get his season back on track this week.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Stevenson has been the workhorse for the Patriots over recent weeks and he has been productive. He is averaging 121 yards with the 23.3 opportunities he has been getting the last three weeks. He ranks second in the league in carries inside the five-yard line during that time and has reached the end zone three times. Even in Damien Harris’ return, Stevenson played 77 % of the snaps and had 19 opportunities. If the volume continues, Stevenson should have a good chance at a TD against the Jets, who rank 24th in the league in rushing TDs allowed (8).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

The Steelers’ secondary has given up the most receiving yards to WRs in the league (210 yards/game). Brown continues to be a key piece to the high-scoring Eagles offense and averages 2.5 yards per route run (7th in the NFL). The Eagles have the third-highest implied team total (27.0) so we should expect them to put up a few TDs this week. Brown has as good a chance as anyone on this offense to find the end zone this week.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

While Derrick Henry (-185) would be the easy choice to write up for this game against the last-ranked run defense of the Texans, I’ll take a chance on Dameon Pierce at longer odds. In his last 4 games, Pierce has three rushing touchdowns and is averaging over 100 yards per game. During that span, he ranks fourth in the league in opportunities per game at 24.3. The Titans’ run defense has been strong this season, ranking fourth in yards allowed and first in rushing TDs allowed (1). Given the volume, I think the Texans’ explosive rookie can overcome the matchup and score this week.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

While McCaffrey would have likely been a major part of the game plan regardless, Deebo Samuel ruled out this week should only benefit McCaffrey’s usage. He had 10 touches last week on just 28% of the snaps so the volume should be no concern. The Rams have only given up two TDs to RBs, but I think McCaffrey should be able to overcome the tough matchup and score this week.

Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts

Ehlinger gets his shot at starting this week and I think taking a chance at long odds on the sixth-round second-year player out of Texas could pay off. The Colts’ game plan should revolve around Jonathan Taylor in Ehlinger’s first start. That said, Ehlinger did utilize his legs during his four years at Texas. He had 33 TDs on the ground and the thought is he may take off a few times in this game as most young starters do when they are not comfortable in the pocket. At +700 odds, I think it’s worth the risk as 3-point home favorites against the Commanders.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

With the Giants trading Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs, it is clear they have trust in the rookie second-rounder Robinson that this regime hand-picked in the offseason. In the two games since Robinson returned from injury, the Giants have utilized him all around the field and Jones targeted eight times on 29 routes last week. He should continue to see increased snaps for a Giants team lacking WR talent and should have the opportunity to find the end zone as he did two weeks ago.

(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

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