NFL Week 9 Touchdown Scorer Odds & Picks: Dolphins vs. Chiefs (Germany)

by Mike Fanelli |
Nov 04, 2023

Sunday morning we have a special matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany. Millions of dollars will get bet on this game but which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs TD Scorer Prop Best Bets

All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins First TD Scorer: Tyreek Hill (+290)

Hill is the front-runner to win the Offensive Player of the Year award. The superstar wide receiver has been outstanding this season, leading the league in receiving yards. More importantly, he has eight receiving touchdowns, the most in the NFL. Hill has scored at least one touchdown in all but one game this season. Furthermore, the superstar wide receiver has scored the first Miami touchdown in nearly half the games this year, including two consecutive contests.

Most of the media's attention has been on the Chiefs' offense, but their defense has been outstanding this season. However, they haven't faced an offense like Miami's in 2023. Yet, Kansas City has given up seven receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the 11th-most in the NFL. More importantly, the Chiefs have surrendered at least one offensive touchdown in all but one game this year. Seven of those first touchdowns allowed were passing scores, with four going to a wide receiver. It's a revenge game for Hill so don't be surprised if he scores more than once.

Kansas City Chiefs First TD Scorer: Rashee Rice (+800)

Many will bet on Travis Kelce to score the first Chiefs touchdown in the game. Surprisingly, the future Hall of Fame tight end hasn't had the first Kansas City touchdown in any game this year. Unfortunately, there hasn't been any go-to guy early in games for Patrick Mahomes. However, I am going to back the rookie wide receiver. Rice had the first Chiefs touchdown of the season in Week 1. The former SMU star is also the only wide receiver on the team with more than one receiving touchdown.

More importantly, Rice has an appealing matchup. The rookie runs nearly 60% of his route from the slot (per Fantasy Points Data) which means he will face slot corner Kader Kohou for Miami. The second-year cornerback has allowed an 83.3% completion rate. According to PFF, Kohou has given up three receiving touchdowns in coverage this year, accounting for 25% of the team's total. With Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard on the outside, Mahomes should target the rookie early and often on Sunday.

Anytime TD Scorer: Raheem Mostert (-115)

Miami has the best offense in the NFL. They can beat you with their wide receivers or their running backs. Despite playing in only four games, De'Von Achane is eighth in the NFL with five rushing scores. Unfortunately, the star rookie won't play this week. However, Mostert will. The veteran running back leads the league in rushing scores (10). More importantly, he has scored at least one touchdown in all but two games this season, including four scores over the past three weeks.

Kansas City has shut down opposing rushing attacks this year and has surrendered only two rushing touchdowns to running backs. The Chiefs have also given up only two receiving scores to opposing running backs this year. However, Javonte Williams had a receiving score in Week 8, and Joshua Kelley had a rushing touchdown in Week 7 against Kansas City. While the AFC West division leaders have limited opposing rushing backs this season, Mostert might be the best one they've faced in 2023.

Anytime TD Scorer: Travis Kelce (-125)

While Kelce hasn't scored the first Kansas City touchdown once this season, he remains the go-to target for Patrick Mahomes. The future Hall of Fame tight end leads the team with four receiving touchdowns despite missing Week 1. Last week, the Chiefs were a disaster, however, Kelce had been on an unstoppable run. Over the previous three games, the superstar averaged 10.3 receptions on 11 targets for 123.3 receiving yards per contest. More importantly, he found the end zone twice in those three games.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have given up three receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the eighth-most in the NFL and they have struggled to slow down the position. Miami has surrendered at least 70 yards or a touchdown to tight ends in all but the games this year. Two weeks ago, Dallas Goedert scored the first Philadelphia Eagles touchdown against the Dolphins. Kelce is 12th in the NFL with four receiving touchdowns. This matchup could determine who has the No. 1 seed come playoff time. Expect Kelce to find the end zone at least once against the Dolphins.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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