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NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Monday (April 24)

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Yesterday, we had three separate same-game parlays lose thanks to a single leg. Brutal. It feels like we’re knocking on the door of a big pay day, so let’s get straight into my favorite SGP picks for Monday’s batch of Game 4’s.

Monday’s Best NHL Same Game Parlay Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers

  • Leg 1: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-160)
  • Leg 2: Artemi Panarin Anytime Goalscorer (+200)
  • Leg 3: Jesper Bratt Anytime Goalscorer (+240)

Kudos to the Devils. New Jersey looked left for dead after dropping their first two games of the series in ugly fashion. However, the young Devils made some adjustments and played a much tighter Game 3. That strategy worked, as the Devils held the Rangers to just five high-danger opportunities at 5-on-5 play. Akira Schmid played great in his first postseason start, stopping 35-of-36 shots and out-dueling Igor Shesterkin.

The Devils were deserving winners Saturday night, winning the expected goals battle 3.23-2.52 at 5-on-5 play. But I wonder if they can bank on Schmid to be terrific three more times to win this series.

This has been a tricky series to figure out, so for that reason, I’m staying away from the side in this SGP. Instead, I’ll roll with a juiced under, assuming New Jersey will try to replicate their Game 3 effort Monday night. And I’ll pair it with a couple of goalscorer props with Panarin and Bratt, both of whom have yet to light the lamp in this series.

Parlay Odds: +2200

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Leg 1: Lightning Moneyline (-105)
  • Leg 2: Steven Stamkos Anytime Goalscorer (+145)
  • Leg 3: Matthew Knies Anytime Goalscorer (+300)

Imagine a world where the Tampa Bay Lightning outplayed their opponent in a playoff game but lost because of goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played an enormous role in this Lightning run of dominance, but he has not been great in this series. Throw out Marc-Andre Fleury, who has played just one game, and Vasilevskiy ranks dead-last among goaltenders this postseason in goals saved above expected. Vasilevskiy allowed four goals on 27 shots in Game 3 and gave up a questionable goal in overtime.

If Vasilevskiy had been just average, the Lightning probably would’ve won going away. The Bolts dominated at 5-on-5 play, holding 65% of the possession, putting up 46 scoring chances, and holding Toronto to just 13 high-danger opportunities in the game. According to expected goals, Tampa won the game 3.37-1.72 at 5-on-5 and 4.09-2.62 in all situations.

Maybe the Leafs just have Vasilevskiy’s number, which is a plausible theory considering how many times these teams have played over the years. But I just find it hard to believe that Ilya Samsonov will continue to out-duel Vasilevskiy for the rest of the series. On home ice, I expect Tampa to take care of business, and I don’t mind a bet on the Bolts to win the series, either.

I also expect Stamkos to lead the charge in Game 4 and get his first goal of the series. Finally, I’ll take a shot on the youngster Knies to get on the board after an impressive start to his playoff career.

Parlay Odds: +1400

Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets

  • Leg 1: Jets Moneyline (-105)
  • Leg 2: Jonathan Marchessault Anytime Goalscorer (+185)
  • Leg 3: Kyle Connor Anytime Goalscorer (+125)

Remember way back in Game 1 when the Jets looked capable of not only beating Vegas in this series but making a run in the Western Conference? That was fun. After that game, I threw a few bucks on Winnipeg to win the West. The Jets rewarded me by not looking nearly as great ever since.

While Winnipeg deserves credit for rallying back from a 4-1 third-period deficit, they couldn’t complete the job and fell in OT. Frankly, the game should’ve never come down to overtime. The Golden Knights dominated at 5-on-5, holding an expected goals margin of 3-1.65.

Vegas has asserted itself as the better team in this series and now holds the advantage in several key analytical categories, such as possession, scoring chances for, and expected goals at 5-on-5. The biggest difference has been on the blue line, where the Golden Knights possess far more depth than Winnipeg. Now, the Jets won’t have Josh Morrissey manning the blue line after he suffered a lower-body injury.

It also doesn’t help that goaltender Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t been great in this series, ranking 15th in goals saved above expected. Hellebuyck was supposed to give Winnipeg its biggest edge in this series against Knights netminder Laurent Brossoit. Instead, Brossoit has been on par, if not slightly better than his counterpart.

All that being said, I am going to lean toward the Jets one last time, and it’s because I’m expecting a sharper performance out of Hellebuyck in Game 4. I could see Hellebuyck stepping up, similar to how Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger stepped up in yesterday’s Game 4 win over Minnesota. Oettinger had given up four goals on just 24 shots in Game 3 but was dazzling in Game 4, stopping 32-of-34 attempts. Hellebuyck is certainly capable of carrying his team to a win, and I could see that happening Monday night in a must-win game.

As far as goal scorers, I like Jonathan Marchessault to get his first goal of the series, as well as the red-hot Kyle Connor.

Parlay Odds: +950

Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken 

  • Leg 1: Over 6 Total Goals (-130)
  • Leg 2: Jared McCann Anytime Goalscorer (+160)
  • Leg 3: Bowen Byram Anytime Goalscorer (+340)

The Kraken has given the defending champs everything they can handle through the first three games, but I get the sense the Avalanche finally figured out their former netminder, Philipp Grubauer, in Game 3. Colorado scored five goals on 33 shots in Game 3, and the over cashed midway through the second period. Colorado took control in Game 3, dominating in possession, scoring chances, and expected goals at 5-on-5. I’m wondering if this could be a sign of things to come for the rest of this series.

That being said, Avalanche goaltender Alexander Georgiev has looked shaky in this series and ranks 16th in goals saved above expected. The Kraken clearly has the firepower to get pucks past him and stay in this series.

I’m going to pass on the side here and instead give out the over once again. We’ve got two really talented forward groups going up against two shaky goaltenders, and I don’t think Saturday’s 10-goal outburst was a fluke. In fact, I feel it probably should’ve happened in Games 1 and 2.

I’ll go back to the well on Jared McCann finally breaking through with a goal in Game 4. I’ll also take a chance on Byram, who is actually second on the team in shots behind Nathan MacKinnon.

Parlay Odds: +1000

Check out our other best bets for Monday:

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