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North Carolina vs. San Diego State: NCAA Tournament First Four Predictions

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While most college basketball fans wait in anticipation for the non-stop March Madness action on Thursday and Friday, often some of the most suspenseful early games of the NCAA Tournament take place in the First Four.

The lack of upsets for the most part in conference tournaments meant the NCAA Tournament selection committee was able to include several bubble teams, including one of the sport’s most storied universities in North Carolina.

Here are our best bets for the First Four game North Carolina vs. San Diego State.

2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>

Best NCAA Tournament Bets for the First Four: North Carolina vs. San Diego State

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

North Carolina vs. San Diego State

This line has been on the rise ever since the Tar Heels opened as 2.5-point favorites. It is not hard to see why UNC is a popular favorite, as it is the more public team in this matchup.

North Carolina has just two wins against teams in the NCAA Tournament field (vs. American and UCLA), and its 1-12 record in Quad 1 games is what nearly kept it out of the field altogether.

UNC’s struggles this year were in large part because it never found a true replacement for veteran big man Armando Bacot, and it was routinely exposed by physical teams with strong frontcourts.

San Diego State ranks in the top 19 nationally in both two-point and three-point percentage allowed. The Aztecs are also the best rim-protecting team, leading the country in blocked shot percentage.

I expect Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs will impose the kind of physicality on North Carolina that it has struggled with all season.

The Tar Heels covered just 38.7% of their regular season games, while the Aztecs are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) after a loss. Meanwhile, San Diego State returned 47.1% of the minutes from a team that reached the Sweet 16 last year (losing to eventual national champion UConn). That experience should benefit it in this First Four matchup.

Bet: San Diego State +4.5 (-115)

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

EAST REGION

MIDWEST REGION

SOUTH REGION

WEST REGION

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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