Oregon Ducks vs. Seton Hall Pirates Odds and Game Pick

by Mike Spector |
Nov 27, 2019

The #11 Oregon Ducks take on the #13 Seton Hall Pirates in just the second-ever meeting between the schools. This matchup is a first-round game of the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis. This eight-team tournament has a loaded bracket which also features ranked teams like #6 North Carolina and #8 Gonzaga. The winner of this game will take on the winner of the Gonzaga-Southern Miss game in the semifinal round.

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Details

Opening Lines: Oregon -2 (at BetOnline.ag)
Current Line: Oregon -1.5
O/U: 139
Location: Imperial Arena, Nassau, Bahamas
Start Time: 9:30 ET
Last Meeting: March 17, 2000- Seton Hall def. Oregon 72-71

Overview

Oregon enters this game with a 5-0 record, winning their games by an average of 17 PPG. Their 5-0 start is their best since their Elite Eight season of 2015-16. While the Ducks have not played a game outside Oregon yet, they are certainly battle-tested. Oregon beat then #13 Memphis 82-74 when they were at full strength before James Wisemanâ€™s suspension. They also beat another likely tournament team in Houston, 78-66 in their last game.

The Ducks rank 59th in the nation in scoring offense and 106th in points allowed. While their free-throw shooting has been poor (ranking 221st- 67.7%), they have been sensational from three-point range, ranking 7th in the country with a 42.7 three-point percentage. Oregon is led by a dynamic backcourt of Payton Pritchard and Anthony Mathis, who are combining for 34.4 points per game. These two were high school teammates, and their chemistry on the court is a real difference-maker for the Ducks early on.

Seton Hall comes into this game at 4-1, with their only loss coming at the hands of #3 Michigan State. That game was a thriller in East Rutherford, as the Spartans held on for a 76-73 victory. Outside of that loss, the Pirates are winning their games by an average of 28.5 PPG. Seton Hall ranks 21st in the country with 84.4 PPG, and 109th in the country allowing 64.2 PPG.

The Pirates are led by one of the best players in the nation, senior guard Myles Powell. If the season ended today, Powell would have a great argument to be named Player of the Year. He is averaging 22.6 PPG, while shooting 42% from the floor and 41.9% from three-point range. Sandro Mamukelashvili has added size and versatility down low. In addition, point guard Quincy McKnight has been a pest defensively, constantly harassing the other teamâ€™s best guard on a nightly basis.

Trends

Oregon is 9-0 ATS in their last nine neutral site games
The under is 12-4-1 in Oregonâ€™s last 17 games as a favorite
Oregon is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall
Over is 10-2 in Seton Hallâ€™s last twelve neutral site games
Seton Hall is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
The over is 6-2 in Seton Hallâ€™s last 8 games

Bottom Line

This matchup sets up to be a fascinating early-round tournament game between two major conference contenders. It will be an aesthetically pleasing game, as both teams play efficiently and like to push the pace. Two of the best backcourts in the country will be on display, as Pritchard and Mathis go toe-to-toe with Powell and McKnight.

The biggest difference in this game will be who can control the backboards. Oregon comes into the game ranked 161st in rebounds per game, while Seton Hall ranks 64th in the same category. Size is not Oregonâ€™s strength, but their lack of size has not really been exposed. When Oregon played Memphis, the Ducks were smart to go after Memphis big man James Wiseman in the first half, drawing two fouls on him early. As a result, Wiseman only played about five minutes in the first half, and Oregon was able to build a nice cushion. Wiseman only played 22 minutes, but still finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds. If he had played his normal minutes, the result could have been a lot different.

Seton Hall has the size to give the smaller Ducks problems. Their frontline of Mamukelashvili (6-10), Ike Obiagu (7-2) and Romaro Gill (7-2) are tough to keep off the glass. In addition, guards like Quincy McKnight and Myles Cale have the length to bother the perimeter shooters of Oregon. Seton Hall is allowing opponents to shoot just 29.1% from three-point range this year, and I expect them to hold Oregon under their season average as well. Quincy McKnight will use his defensive prowess to disrupt Payton Pritchard and slow down the Oregon attack.

The Pirates will make this more of a grind-it-out half-court game than the Ducks are used to. That, along with the rebounding edge the Pirates have are too much to ignore. Look for Seton Hall to learn from their mistakes from the Michigan State game and close this game out late. Take Seton Hall +1.5.

Pick: Seton Hall (+1.5)