Predicted Line Movement for Super Bowl LVII (2023)
A week has passed since the first Super Bowl lines came out, and there has already been a lot of movement. At first, there was massive variety among all sportsbooks’ numbers, as Kansas City was as high as -2.5 point favorites at PointsBet and Circa. At the same time, Philadelphia opened as slight favorites at DraftKings and FanDuel. Since then, all sportsbooks have moved to the Eagles being favored, reaching as high as -2.5 at several sportsbooks before being bet back down to -1.5 as the most common consensus number.
The total is also up slightly from its original number, moving from a consensus of 49.5 to 50 and, more commonly, 50.5 as of Monday morning.
With millions of more dollars to be wagered throughout the week and before kickoff, what will it mean for the point spread and O/U numbers as Super Bowl Sunday draws near?
Here is a look at the early Super Bowl LVII line and predicted movement.
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Super Bowl LVII Game Info
Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, AZ
Coverage: FOX
Last Meeting: October 3, 2021 — The Chiefs defeated the Eagles 42-30 in Philadelphia.
Super Bowl LVII Betting Odds
(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Moneyline: PHI: (-122) | KC: (+104)
Spread: PHI: -1.5 (-110) | KC: +1.5 (-110)
Total: 50.5 (Over: -110) | Under: (-110)
Super Bowl LVII Early Wager Analysis
As of Saturday night, DraftKings was reporting most states’ point spread betting splits were skewed to Philadelphia. Of the 20 states with legal sports betting, only Kansas and Louisiana had taken more handle on point spread bets for the Chiefs. By contrast, the handle on the Eagles’ point spread odds was at least 70% in 17 of the other 18 states.
The total had much more even betting splits across the 20 states, as the Over had seen more handle in 11 of them.
Saturday afternoon also had a key moment from a betting perspective, as that was when the first seven-figure bet for the Super Bowl came in, which David Payne Purdum pointed out on Twitter.
Super Bowl LVII Injury Updates
Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain looked fine in the AFC Championship Game, as he finished 29-of-43 for 326 yards and two touchdowns. With him being a full practice participant much of last week, the focus this week will be around the health of Kansas City’s wide receiving corps. Andy Reid has already said he doubts Mecole Hardman will play, while Kadarius Toney participated in walkthroughs. There is also optimism surrounding JuJu Smith-Schuster’s chances of being available on Sunday. And as of this writing, cornerback L’Jarius Sneed is still in concussion protocol, and linebacker Willie Gay is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Philadelphia is in much better shape from an injury standpoint, as none of its projected starters even have as much as a questionable tag at the moment.
Super Bowl LVII Spread and Total Movement Predictions
Aside from territories closer to Kansas City, Philadelphia has drawn much more early betting attention. The Eagles’ point spread handle is more than 4/1 at several states, and while the biggest bets likely will come in later in the week, sportsbooks are in a position where they need the Chiefs to cover. Thus, do not be surprised if the lines move to -2 or -2.5 at some point this week, but any +3’s for Kansas City will likely be gobbled up quickly by Chiefs backers.
While the point spread betting splits are much more egregious in most states, the O/U has seen much better two-way action. Philadelphia scored 31 points against the league’s top-scoring defense last week but allowed just seven points to a team that had won 12 consecutive games and is the NFL’s top pass defense. That has likely led to indecision among bettors at this point.
The Eagles are 10-9 to the Over this year, but the Under has cashed in both of their playoff games. The Under has also cashed in both of Kansas City’s playoff games, and it was a more profitable Under team this year, cashing it in 11 of 19 games. In addition, the Under has cashed in five of the previous seven Super Bowls. Lastly, going back to 2002, Super Bowl totals of 48+ points have gone Under nine of 11 times. Thus, even if Kansas City gets positive news on the injury front over the next two weeks, bettors will likely get wind of these trends and prevent the total from ballooning, meaning an O/U of 51 is likely the highest it will climb.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.