Premier League Matchday 3 Picks & EPL Predictions (2025)
We're fresh off a profitable 2-1 betting weekend in the Premier League, and I'm looking to stay hot as we grind out one more weekend of play before heading to the international break. Below, I'll dive into three of this weekend's contests from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch. Here are my top English Premier League picks for Matchday 3.
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Premier League Matchday 3 Preview & Best Bets (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Leeds United (+240) vs. Newcastle United (+250), DRAW (+110) | O/U 2.5 (-130/+105)
Let's get things started on Saturday afternoon in this contest between Leeds United and Newcastle United. Leeds United is back in the top flight for the first time since 2022-2023, where they had a three-year run before getting relegated back to the EFL Championship. They'll take on Newcastle United this weekend, and kick-off is set for 12:30 p.m. ET from Elland Road in Leeds.
I'll take a plus-money flier on Newcastle United in this road clash. The Magpies have yet to secure a win this season, going 0-1-1 out of the gate. They nearly pulled out a 2-2 draw against Liverpool last weekend, but conceded a 90'+10' goal. Let's not overreact just yet, as Newcastle United has played a tough schedule to start the campaign. I think Eddie Howe and his men right the ship this weekend against a lesser opponent.
Interestingly, Newcastle United leads the Premier League in expected goals against (xGA) with a mark of 0.9 through the first two matchdays. Meanwhile, Leeds has only one goal through two matches, and they're also coming off a 5-0 rout at the hands of Arsenal. Ultimately, I believe Newcastle United is simply a tier above the hosts, and I'm willing to bet they'll take care of business and secure three points.
Bet: Newcastle Moneyline (+110)
Nottingham Forest (-145) vs. West Ham United (+400), DRAW (+290) | O/U 2.5 (-105/-120)
Sunday's four-match slate kicks off with a fun matchup between Nottingham Forest and lowly West Ham United. The Irons are still searching for their first result after starting the campaign 0-0-2. Kick-off is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
It has been a rough start to the season for West Ham United, and I don't anticipate seeing any improvements when they head to a hostile The City Ground on Sunday morning. Specifically, I'm looking to fade the Irons' offense, which is 18th in scoring (one goal) and 19th in expected goals (xG) with a mark of 1.3 this year. In their one road match, Graham Potter's men were blanked in a 3-0 defeat to recently-promoted Sunderland.
Now, West Ham United will be tasked with trying to score on a Nottingham defense that has been quite impenetrable during their time in the top flight. Specifically, in 2024-25, the Trees ranked second in clean sheets (13). At home last year, they were first in goals allowed (16) and fifth in xGA (19.8). Nottingham Forest has conceded in both matches so far, but this is an opponent that they should have no issues shutting down in front of their home crowd. I'll take Nottingham Forest to record a clean sheet.
Bet: Nottingham Forest Team Clean Sheet: Yes (+125)
Liverpool (+120) vs. Arsenal (+225), DRAW (+250) | O/U 2.5 (-135/+105)
We have an early-season whale of a matchup in the middle of Sunday's schedule, as reigning champion Liverpool hosts red-hot Arsenal. Both clubs are 2-0-0 out of the gate. Kick-off is slated for 11:30 a.m. ET from Anfield in Liverpool.
I'm going to sit back and root for goals in this match, so mark me down for the over. With how good Arsenal's defense has been in recent years, I initially thought that we'd see more low-scoring matches between the clubs. However, after looking back at the head-to-head history, they've combined for four or more goals in five of the last six Premier League meetings, including logging exactly four goals in three straight games.
This match is being played at Anfield, which, in my mind, skews to more scoring. I think we see a 2-1 final, or maybe we're in for a third consecutive 2-2 draw. Mostly, the big concern for me is Liverpool's defense. They have allowed four goals in their first two matches, including conceding twice to Newcastle last weekend, while the Magpies only had 10 men. Offensively, the Reds are first in scoring (seven goals) and the Gunners are second (six goals) this season. I'm fine with laying the vig and playing the over in this early-season clash of titans.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (-135)