Premier League Matchday 38 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
The Premier League wraps up on Sunday with Matchday 38. We're looking to close it out strong from a betting perspective, especially after posting a perfect 3-0 record during Matchday 37. Let's dive into a few of my top plays for Sunday's finale, Premier League Matchday 38, where all 10 matches kick off at 11:00 a.m. ET.
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Premier League Matchday 38 Preview & Best Bets (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brentford (+190) vs. Newcastle (+125), DRAW (+310) | O/U 3.5 (+100/-120)
Let's start over in Brentford, where the Bees host the Magpies to close the season. Brentford has solidified a spot in the Premier League next year, sitting 16th in the table with 39 points. Newcastle resides in seventh place, courtesy of a 17-6-14 record (57 points). This contest kicks off from Gtech Community Stadium.
At certain points this year, it looked like Thomas Frank's club could be heading down to the Championship. However, they've been playing well as of late, losing only one of their last eight contests (2-5-1). Considering they have a home-pitch advantage, I'm going to play them on the "Draw, No Bet" prop at plus-money. I believe they possess the offensive prowess (52 goals, 10th) to pull off an outright win.
They'll be hosting a Newcastle side, who, if we're being honest, has been a major letdown this season. Eddie Howe's squad is just 2-1-2 in their last five matches, with the wins coming against lowly competition in Sheffield United (20th) and Burnley (19th). Furthermore, the Magpies have been horrendous on the road this term, posting a record of 5-2-11. They're a high-variance team, but their road goal differential is just -6 (32:38). Let's take a flier on the Bees at home in this spot.
Premier League Matchday 38 Pick: Brentford To Win, Draw No Bet (+115)
Liverpool (-600) vs. Wolverhampton (+1200), DRAW (+800) | O/U 3.5 (-165/+130)
It looked like Liverpool was going to make a run at the title for Jurgen Klopp's final season, but the Reds came up short due to a mess of injuries mixed with general incompetence. They've locked in the third spot in the table (79 points), and they'll host a Wolverhampton side that's currently in 13th (46 points). This contest will be played at Anfield in Liverpool.
I wanted to figure out a way to back Liverpool in Klopp's final match, but I don't feel confident laying 2.5 goals with their defense, which has proven to be lackadaisical at times (41 goals conceded, third). I do not want to be backdoored by a late goal, which has been a frequent occurrence, considering the Reds have conceded five goals past the 70-minute mark in their last three matches. So, I'll take them to carry a lead into the half (-220), and I'll pair it with the full-game over 2.5 goals (-425). This same game parlay (SGP) provides a -150 payout.
I want to knock the total down to 2.5 goals, as I'm not sure Wolverhampton will be able to contribute to the total in this match. Maybe they'll get a late goal to push us over. However, this offense, which showed some life under Gary O'Neil early in the year, has completely fallen off lately. They've scored just five goals over their last five matches (1-0-4), bringing them to 47 goals on the year (17th). Chiefly, I'll play this over because Liverpool still possesses a dynamic offense, which enters the weekend ranked fourth overall (78 goals). There's a realistic chance they net three goals at the always-hostile Anfield.
Premier League Matchday 38 Pick: SGP: Liverpool First Half Moneyline & Full Game Alt Over 2.5 (-150)
Brighton & Hove Albion (+115) vs. Manchester United (+205), DRAW (+310) | 3.5 (-125/+100)
As for my final wager of the 2023-2024 Premier League campaign, I'm heading to Falmer, where Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Manchester United. This is an interesting top-10 match, as United sits in eighth (57 points), while Brighton sits in 10th (48 points). This one kicks off from Selhurst Park.
Brighton's a slight favorite in this match, which is a little bit surprising to me. The Seagulls have not been in the best of form lately, posting a 1-3-5 record over their last nine matches. At home, they're a pedestrian 8-6-4, meaning they've failed to cover a -0.5-goal line in 10 of those 18 matches. On that note, over the same nine-match sample size, they've managed to score just five goals (0.6 goals per game). I'll gladly sip the juice that comes with Manchester United to secure at least a point.
As for United, they finally got back in the win column last time out, taking down Newcastle in a 3-2 affair. Their offense has been questionable at times this season, but they've netted 55 goals, which is good enough for ninth overall. The Red Devils got pounded 3-1 by the Seagulls at Old Trafford earlier in the season, but that was in the midst of a hectic Champions League schedule. Since their group stage exit, Erik ten Hag's men have either won or drawn in 14 of their 21 Premier League matches. Let's back United in this road finale.
Premier League Matchday 38 Pick: Manchester United +0.5 (-140)