Projected 2019 NFL Win Totals: AFC West

Alllllright! We’re on to the AFC West! What is the purpose of deriving Season Win Totals for 2019 from 2018 final power ratings? I’m glad you asked! I laid out the methodology and the thought process behind making these projections essentially a baseline for the rest of the offseason, in this piece. This is the last of the AFC previews. You can catch up by reviewing the AFC North, AFC South, and AFC East respectively.

The AFC West draws the AFC South and NFC North as rotational opponents, with one team each from the AFC East and AFC North divisions. As a division in aggregate, the AFC West is just slightly behind the NFC South’s combined win total of 34.4, with 34.2 wins projected across these old AFL rivals of the Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers.

As a division, the home field advantage (HFA) estimation will be crucial in handicapping individual games next fall, with the Raiders currently “To Be Determined” for where they’ll play “home” games in 2019, and the Carson-Los Angeles Chargers having the lowest HFA in the league due to the diminutive size of the stadium (The StubHub Center, home to the MLS’s LA Galaxy club), and the vast number of transplants in Southern California that rally around their home state team, while the Chargers themselves are quasi-orphans, having abandoned their longtime San Diego fan base, yet a long ways and another year from entering their permanent home in Inglewood with the Rams.

Kansas City: 11.4 Wins

Unsurprisingly, the back-to-back-to-back defending division champion Chiefs come in with the highest win total projection at 11.4 (second in the NFL to only the Patriots). In what might be a surprise, the Chargers come in right behind the Chiefs in my projections. I’ll lay out just how close the teams are shortly, but for now let’s look at how the Chiefs season looks to play out.

The Chiefs project to be nothing short of dominant at home in 2019, enjoying no less than a 4.5 point, 67.3% win probability cushion vs. the Chargers. The Chiefs other two division opponents forecast to be relative walk-overs with 85% and 95.6% win probabilities as 10.3 and 15.1 point favorites vs. the Broncos and Raiders respectively. Against the Ravens, Kansas City should be 5.8 pt favorites (70.4% probability), with each other game within a percentage point or two, right around 80% win probability. Specifically, the Chiefs remaining home games calculate out to 8.4, 8.5, 8.9 and 9.2 point favorites vs. the Colts, the Vikings, the Texans, and the Packers, in that order.

On the road the Chiefs look to be favored at Denver (-3.8 pts, 65.3%), Oakland (-8.8, 80.5%), Jacksonville (-6.3, 71.7%), Tennessee (-4.5, 67.3%) and Detroit (-7.4, 76.3%). However, in games that have a great chance to be primetime games, the Chiefs will be a coin-flip at Chicago (pick’em, 50%), and slight underdogs at the Chargers (+1.8, 47%) and at New England (+2.1, 46.4%). Is it me, or does New England get three home games for every one road game in the regular season vs. their top-tier opponents? It just seems like two-thirds of the regular season matchups with Manning were in New England. The Chiefs seem to always play there. Ditto Baltimore and Indianapolis. Then you add in the Seahawks, the Packers, and the Texans. The league has sent the Pats to the Steelers for a couple years, but that was a ritual win up until this year. I digress…

Denver: 7.4 Wins

We’ll close with the Chargers nipping at the Chiefs’ heels, and jump now to my lifelong fandom, the Denver Broncos.

There’s no team that I have power ranked closer to perfectly average (which would be a 0.0 rating) than the Denver Broncos who I have rated 0.11. So averagely-average. However, the Broncos 2019 home/road schedule projects to be on the challenging side, therefore the numbers only project them to win 7.4 games — 4.6 at home, and only 2.7 on the road.

Denver portends to be an underdog at home only twice; vs. the Chiefs (+3.8 pt dog, 35% win probability) and vs. the Chargers where they project to get +2.8 points, translating to a 43.0% win probability. Denver also looks to be a coin flip with the Bears (technically a +0.5 pt dog, for a 49.2% likelihood of winning). In the other five games on the home slate, Denver ranges from a slight favorite vs. Cleveland (-1.6, 52.9%) to a substantial favorite vs. the TBD Raiders (7.8, 78.6%). The Broncos have a 64.0%, 68.7% and 72.1% win probabilities in their remaining three games against the Titans, Jaguars, and Lions respectively.

On the road, Denver is a 50/50 coin-flip at Buffalo, and a slight favorite at TBD vs. the Raiders (-2.0, 53.4%), but that’s where the opportunity for wins end from a probability standpoint. The other five road games look rough. From a 9.8 pt dog (17.0%) and 8.6 pt dog (19.7%) — at the Chiefs and Chargers — to four games hovering around 32-33% win probability (as 4.3 to 4.7 pt dogs) (at Houston, Indy, Minnesota and Green Bay). As we sit here in February, were the Broncos to get the same level of play as last year, it wouldn’t translate to more than three road wins. My mom will be pissed if Denver loses five road games this year unless they somehow go undefeated at home. So please, for my mom’s sake, over-perform expectations!

Raiders: 4.8 Wins

I guess we have to breakdown Oakland, as they’re one of the 32 NFL teams, and they’re assigned to the AFC West (even though they’re not assigned to a home field right now)…but I really don’t want to. They’re just gross, and as a lifelong Broncos fan, I hope they lose every game. Once again, I digress.

For the Raiders I have 4.8 wins, 3.2 coming at home and 1.6 on the road.

Oakland should be slight favorites vs the Lions and Bengals at home (-1.5, 52.5% and -2.2, 54%), a coin-flip vs. the Jaguars (-.3, 50%), less than an FG home dog to the Broncos and Titans (+2.0, 46.4% and +1.5, 47.5%). The other games remaining on the “home” slate, the Raiders look like longshots to Kansas City, Los Angeles (Chargers), and the Bears. The Raiders project to be giving 8.8 points to KC, 7.7 (19.5%) to LAC, and 5.4 (21.4%) to Chicago (31.4%).

On the road, the Raiders sole chance to win — they’re not favored once — will be at the NY Jets at +2.6, 44% likelihood. The other seven games look “U-G-L-Y you ain’t got no alibi, you ugly!”  The Raiders go to KC, Denver and LAC of course in division (15.0, 7.8 and 13.3 point underdogs), but then also have to go to Houston, Indy, Green Bay and Minnesota where they’ll be getting 9.0 (19.3%), 9.5 (18.9%), 8.3 (20.5%),  and 9.4 (19.0%) respectively. Not pretty.

Los Angeles Chargers: 10.9 Wins

Alright, back to the Chargers, who I teased earlier as ‘right on the Chiefs heels’ as the fourth highest rated team in the NFL. They are just a complete team, and a very good roster, 1-53. I have the Chargers coming in at 10.9 wins, with 5.88 forecasted at home, and a solid 5.05 on the road. If the Chargers were to win every game they’re favored in, they would have a 14-2 season. Again, my numbers (created by their efficiency!) really likes this team.

I don’t have the Chargers as an underdog one time at home. The most competitive game forecasts to be vs. the Chiefs, of course. Los Angeles looks to be a narrow -1.8 pt fave (53%). The Chargers look to be slightly more than an FG home favorite vs. the Steelers (3.3, 63.0%). In the rest of the home schedule, LAC looks to be significant favorites of 75.0% to 89.9% win probability. Going undefeated at home should be the goal for the Chargers in 2019.

On the road is where the Chargers will determine their home field advantage, or lack thereof, in the playoffs. The Chargers are basically a coin-flip (+0.5, 49.7%) at Chicago, and a 4.5 pt. dog (32.7%) at Kansas City, but are favored in every other road game on their slate. Those six games in which LAC looks to be favored are at Oakland and Denver in division, and then off to Jacksonville, Tennessee, Miami, and Detroit. They will range from -2.8 pt. faves at Denver (58.7%) to a high of -8.5 pt. favorites (80.3%) in that remaining slate. As I said, win the games you’re favored in, Los Angeles, and you’ll be 14-2 again.

Jared Still in a featured writer for BettingPros. For more from Jared, check out his archive and follow him @jaredstill.