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Raiders vs. Steelers: NFL Saturday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 16)

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On Saturday, the Raiders and Steelers will square off in Pittsburgh for a Christmas Eve showdown. Both teams sit at 6-8 coming into the game. The winner will be clinging to hope in the AFC Playoff picture, while the loser will be effectively eliminated from playoff contention. 

With a total of 38.5 and the Steelers favored by 2.5 points, this should be a pretty competitive game. I’ll be playing this three-leg parlay, offered on Draftkings Sportsbook.

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Raiders vs. Steelers: NFL Week 16 Christmas Eve Saturday Night Football Same Game Parlay (2022)

Leg 1: Raiders +6.5 (-240)

After a 2-7 start to the season, the Raiders have been playing well lately. They’ve won four out of their last five games to get back in the AFC Wild Card race. While they’ve had some fluky games in that stretch, like last week’s crazy win over New England, they’ve executed in key late-game situations to win close games. 

With freezing temperatures and possibly snow in the forecast in Pittsburgh, we should be in for a low-scoring matchup Saturday night. With the Steelers coming in averaging under 18 points per game, and Kenny Pickett coming off of an injury, I don’t expect their offense to put up big numbers. 

Given the Raiders’ recent successes, the Steelers’ offensive struggles, and a low total in this game, the value in getting Raiders +6.5 is worth paying for. Even if Las Vegas doesn’t come away with a win, they should be able to keep things close.

Leg 2: Davante Adams 90+ Receiving Yards (+170)

Historically, the Steelers have been known for their defense. This year, that’s not quite the case. This is especially true in the passing game – Pittsburgh allows the fifth most yards per game to opposing WRs, and the most yards per reception in the NFL. This will be a major problem against the Raiders’ offense, which is at its best when focusing on star WR Davante Adams.

Adams has been boom or bust this season, but he’s capable of putting big numbers on the board when he gets enough target volume. He’s averaging 6.9 catches for 109 yards per game over his last seven games. Over this stretch, he’s averaging a whopping 11.9 targets per game. Adams has tallied a reception on more than half of his targets in five of these seven games.

Given Pittsburgh’s high yardage allowed per catch, Adams should be able to post a big game with his target volume. I like his chances of posting double-digit targets, and if he can continue to haul in more than half his targets, it will put him in a good spot to break 90 yards.

Leg 3: Najee Harris Anytime TD (+120)

While the Raiders have played well lately, they’ve been an excellent fantasy matchup for opposing RBs this year. Las Vegas has allowed opposing RBs to score 15 times in 14 games – only seven teams have allowed more TDs to opposing RBs. 

Najee Harris on the other hand, has finally picked up his scoring after a slow start to the season. Harris has 5 TDs in his last 5 games, and multiple red zone attempts in five of his last six games. 

Given the possibility of sloppy weather requiring Pittsburgh to lean on their run game and the Raiders’ struggles against the run, I love Harris to score a TD this week. This play is negatively correlated with the Raiders’ +6.5 play, but there’s plenty of room for both legs to hit. The inverse correlation also boosts our parlay odds significantly.

Parlay Odds: +700

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