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Ravens vs. Commanders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)

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Introducing the Week 6 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 6 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Ravens vs. Commanders.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 6 Betting Primer>>

Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens

Sides:

  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 11 games. They are 4-0 ATS and straight up in their last four games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last nine home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites.
  • Lamar Jackson is 34-34-0 (50%) ATS as a favorite.
  • Baltimore is 12-5 on the money line as home favorites. But just 7-11 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 13-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 9-4 ATS as road favorites.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Commanders' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-2 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 12-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Ravens have a 29-point implied team total.
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (six of their last nine), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 4-1 toward the over this season.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in seven of the last 10 games (eight of the previous 13).
  • Nine of the Ravens’ last 10 games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Lamar Jackson versus Lamar Jackson 2.0. Get your popcorn ready, folks.

Jayden Daniels and the red-hot Commanders offense are headed to Baltimore to take on the Ravens as 7-point underdogs.

It's a large spread, given the hype building around the rookie sensation, but clearly, the market is not overreacting to the Commanders’ offensive achievements. It’s odd because this game is viewed as the “game of the week,” but that’s usually not the case with TD-based spreads.

The Commanders' offense ranks first overall in EPA/play. First in EPA/pass and EPA/run. They can throw it and run it at an elite level.

However, their numbers are slightly boosted by the opponents they have faced-Bengals, Cardinals, Giants, Browns, etc. It's impressive nonetheless from a rookie QB-led offense, but the opponents’ schedule has not gone unnoticed.

However, is this Ravens’ defense built to stop it? Yes and no. Baltimore's defense is great against the run - the fewest rushing yards allowed per game. Given that they have their own mobile quarterback, I'd presume they have the defensive discipline and coaching to combat Daniels's rushing to the greatest extent. They were able to limit Josh Allen's production back in Week 4.

Also, consider that the Commanders' backfield is banged up. Brian Robinson Jr. is missing practice with a knee injury.

I think we might see a "down" game from Washington's rushing attack, forcing a more traditional dropback passing game from Daniels.

Can he still be effective? Of course. Baltimore ranks second in most passing yards allowed per game this season.

However, the lack of receiver depth behind Terry McLaurin might show up here if they are playing catchup.

Double-digit targets for guys like Zach Ertz, Luke McCaffrey, etc., aren't a recipe for Washington’s success.

As for the Ravens offense, it's another game where they can impose their will in any way. However, the Commanders’ defense has played better in back-to-back weeks against mobile QBs like Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson.

But it's safe to say this Ravens offense is a different animal. Or should I say Big Dog? Derrick Henry is going to have plenty of rushing room in this contest. Per Next Gen Stats, The Commanders have allowed 2.1 yards before contact per carry to running backs this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL. They've also allowed a league-high 23 explosive runs (10+ yards) on just 110 total carries (20.9% explosive run rate, 32nd in the NFL).

From both offensive sides, I think we see the Commanders throw more and the Ravens run.

As I alluded to earlier, the Commanders pass defense might be coming around after two strong games, but the run defense remains abysmal.

Last week I said that the only way CIN-BAL would go under the total would be if Henry just bleeds the clock running the ball. First down after first down, without any game-breaking long runs. I feel the same this week, except I am more confident projecting a run-heavier approach from Baltimore at home.

All in all, I can't back the Ravens at home against the plucky Commanders bunch. Even if it takes a backdoor cover, I can't get past Baltimore's 7-11 ATS record as home favorites. Then again, the public’s perception of this anticipated great game is not reflected in the point spread in my opinion. After initially being on Commanders +7, I think I am just avoiding sides altogether for fear we get a disappointing game where the Ravens just dominate at home.

But I think I like the under on the game total the most. It's still a rookie QB starting on the road in a hostile environment. I think they might become one-dimensional and be unable to showcase their full offensive strengths. Baltimore constantly underwhelms at home, and this run-heavy approach combined with a potential newfound "strong" Commanders pass defense will send this game WAY under 51.5 points.

Nine of the Ravens’ last 10 games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total points line.

Props:

Justice Hill has rushed for at least 14.5 rushing in four straight games.

The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most receptions on defense this season. I expect the Commanders to throw in this spot, so I am looking at overs for the two top-receiving targets. Terry McLaurin’s two overs on his receptions props this season (Weeks 2+4) came in contests with Daniels attempting 29 throws. His pass attempts prop line is set at 31.5 attempts. Every QB the Ravens have faced this season has attempted at least 28 passes. The projections love the OVER on TMC, with the number forecasted for 5.6 catches.

Tight end Zach Ertz caught just two of his eight targets (30% Target share) for 10 yards. Ertz was targeted four times in the red zone but only caught one pass, with no touchdowns. Ertz left a boatload of production on the table (70 air yards), but the usage is positive for him in a plus-matchup versus the Ravens in Week 6. Baltimore is second in yards, targets, and catches to TEs this season.

My Picks:

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