San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Week 5 brings us a marquee NFC West matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals. We can expect Kyler Murray to continue putting on a show, but we await injury news regarding the 49ers’ quarterback situation as Jimmy Garoppolo’s status remains unknown.
Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game.
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Details
- Opening Line: O/U: 53.5 |ARI -4.5
- Current Line: O/U: 50 | ARI -5.5
Overview
Arizona enters this matchup fresh off defeating the powerhouse LA Rams 37-20. Murray continued his stellar play, throwing for nearly 270 yards with 2 touchdowns and rushing for 39 yards.
The ghost of A.J. Green continues to spook defenses after hauling in another touchdown catch, while James Conner had two scores for the second week in a row.
San Francisco fell to the Seattle Seahawks 28-21 in Week 4 despite outgaining Seattle by over 200 yards. Costly turnovers and an injury to Garoppolo sunk this team in short order.
Though they’ve lost two straight, this 49ers team has been live in both, so we shouldn’t downgrade them significantly.
Below we’ll compare how these two team’s matchups metrically:
Numbers Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
Average Offensive Snaps
- SF: 68.0
- ARZ: 70.5
% Run Plays
- SF: 40%
- ARZ: 42%
% Pass Plays
- SF: 60%
- ARZ: 58%
EPA Per Run
- SF: -0.16
- ARZ: 0.06
EPA Per Pass
- SF: 0.24
- ARZ: 0.22
These teams are relatively similar in running and passing plays. Both teams’ running game leaves much to be desired but are nearly identical in EPA per pass. Regardless of who’s under center for San Francisco, Murray will be the superior signal-caller in this game, giving the ‘Cards the offensive advantage.
Trends
- Road team is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings
- 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West
Bottom Line
Arizona is coming off a significant win, only to turn around and face another division rival – the same position the Rams were in last weekend, whom they trounced. It’s easy to become enamored with a 4-0 team, but we shouldn’t forget the missed field goal as time expired in Minnesota and the sloppy game they played against Jacksonville. According to PFF, the Cardinals rank 29th in run defense, and we know the 49ers will consistently run the ball in Kyle Shanahan’s system.
I’ll be looking for San Francisco to establish the run game, win the possession battle, and keep the ball out of Murray’s hands. In a prime letdown spot for Arizona, this one should stay close.
Pick: San Francisco +5.5
Check out our consensus odds on all of this week’s NFL games >>
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.