Saturday’s Best Bets: Final Four, NBA, MLB & NHL Picks (4/1)

by BettingPros Staff |
Apr 01, 2023

No matter your sport of choice, there’s always sports betting action to be had. We’ll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

Today’s Best Bets

Here are today’s best NBA bets.

NBA Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat

Saturday's matchup between Dallas and Miami has plenty of playoff implications as both are fighting for positioning in their respective conference Play-In tournament standings.

Dallas has been in a state of turmoil for much of the season as things are starting to slip away. One aspect of the game that has alluded them is First Basket props, not that there is really any correlation with actual wins. They've been particularly bad at scoring first field goals at under a 40% rate. This is in part due to a bad success rate on opening tips. Against an above average jump ball player in Bam Adebayo, the edge against Dallas is stronger.

I'm going to target Adebayo to score first in this game. Dallas has given up first field goals to opposing big men at a rate of over 60% on the season. That is not an edge I can ignore. With two games on the schedule, Bam Adebayo is the strongest play on the board.

Pick: 0.25u on Bam Adebayo First Basket Scorer (+430)

Ryan Rodeman

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MLB Best Bets

Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases vs. Diamondbacks

Thirteen players on today's MLB slate have 10+ at-bats against the pitchers they face while posting an OPS of .850 or better. Yet only one has a higher OPS than Mookie Betts' career 1.145 OPS against Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner was durable last season, making 30 starts for the second time since 2017. However, that also coincided with his worst single-season WAR (-0.7), largely because his 43.2% hard-hit percentage allowed was the second-worst of his career, and his 30.3% fly-ball rate was the highest.

Bumgarner ranked in the 11th percentile in barrel rate and the 13th percentile in hard-hit contact allowed last year. However, his numbers suggest further regression is expected, as his 4.88 ERA bested his 5.53 xERA.

Betts crushed left-handed pitching last year, as he tied for fourth with Aaron Judge with a 174 wRC+ against southpaws (min. 100 plate appearances). Betts got off to a slow start with an 0-for-4 performance on Opening Day, but he homered yesterday, and we expect him to continue that positive momentum.

Bet: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at DraftKings)

Mike Spector

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NHL Best Bets

Anaheim Ducks (+365) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-490) | O/U 7.5 (+136/-168)

The race in the Pacific will likely come down to the end, and the Oilers will be right in the middle of it being just three points behind. The league's top offense continues to excel, going 15-2-1 in their last 18. They have scored at least three goals in 17 of them.

The Ducks will finish with one of the worse records in the league and will be in contention for the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. They already have some young talent to build on, including Troy Terry and Trevor Tegras. Aside from that duo, there isn't much depth on the roster.

The Ducks' defense has been awful. The goaltending has been even worse. An offense like the Oilers feature should roll all over John Gibson. The over is large, but it has a great payout. Edmonton can put up more than a large share of this number against average opponents.

Pick: Over 7.5 (+136)

John Supowitz

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Final Four Picks

UConn Huskies vs. Miami Hurricanes

Miami's been unstoppable offensively. Over the last two games, the Hurricanes have dropped 89 on Houston and 88 on Texas.

That's ridiculous. But the magic will soon run out. UConn held the nation's best offense to 54 points in its Elite Eight game against Gonzaga. Ultimately, Drew Timme's foul trouble helped, but that's why UConn will do it. UConn is aggressive on both ends of the floor.

They're also deep. UConn has great guard play from Andre Jackson. He reminds me of Josh Giddey at this point. Then they've got shooters like Jordan Hawkins and Joey Calcaterra. Their bigs include Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, and neither has been stopped throughout the Tournament.

UConn has dragged down 38.5% of offensive rebounds this season and should have a field day inside. Miami has allowed opponents to shoot 51.6% from inside the arc. So a guy like Sanogo and even Clingan should get some easy buckets around the rim.

UConn will get more second chances along with better looks from the floor. I'll back UConn to finally put away Miami in the Final Four.

Bet: UConn -5.5 (-110)

Jason Radowitz