Saturday’s Under the Radar College Basketball Bets (2/22)

Last week, it was easy to gravitate more to the “under-the-radar” games since there was just one ranked vs. ranked matchup on the weekend slate. This weekend, there are five games between Top 25 teams. None of those games are bigger than #3 Kansas at #1 Baylor. That game will go a long way in not only determining the Big 12 regular-season championship but also who will enter the NCAA tournament as the #1 overall seed. 

While the casual bettors will focus more on the high-profile matchups, we believe there is an edge to be had in looking at the less-talked-about games. This week, we take a look at three games involving “bubble teams” that have serious NCAA tournament implications. We are getting to the time of year where all the bubble teams’ resumes are being analyzed and scrutinized. Teams are constantly jockeying for positioning off the “last four in” and “first four out” lines and doing what they need to be considered safe in the field. No, they are not as eye-popping of matchups as Kansas-Baylor, but they will be fun nonetheless. 

Here is this week’s trio of under-the-radar bets for Saturday (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Last Week: 2-0

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Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers (-2.5, O/U 133.5) 2:00 PM EST

No Isaiah Livers for Michigan against Rutgers? No problem. The Wolverines played without their leading scorer last game, as he was seen on the bench in a walking boot for an ankle injury. However, they still went to the RAC where Rutgers had not lost all year and handed the Scarlet Knights their first home loss. The Wolverines have now won six of their last seven games, and are likely closer to safely in the field as opposed to being on the bubble. They are playing outstanding defense of late, allowing less than 68 points in each of their last eight games.

At 14-13, Purdue is in much more desperate need of a win. They have lost three straight conference games by an average of 10.7 PPG. They are 5-2 at home in conference, including wins over Iowa and Michigan State. Just one player (Eric Hunter Jr.) averages more than 30 minutes per game, as the Boilermakers routinely play as many as ten guys. 

Most of the betting action will be on Michigan given how much better they have been playing of late than Purdue. However, I am happy to fade the public and take the desperate home team. The Boilermakers should have confidence given they took Michigan to double overtime in Ann Arbor. In the rematch, the change of venue will make all the difference.

Pick: Purdue Boilermakers -2.5

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-1, O/U 137.5) 4:00 PM EST

Usually, we associate the “Bedlam” rivalry with the meetings on the football field between these universities. However, this time the rivalry plays out on the hardwood. Oklahoma could not take advantage of a golden opportunity to down the #1 team in the country on their home floor. At one point they cut Baylor’s second-half lead down to one. However, Baylor immediately responded with a 6-0 run and it never got closer after that. The loss leaves the Sooners with a 6-7 conference record. They need as many wins as they can get down the stretch to impress the tournament committee. Will there be a hangover effect after playing the country’s top-ranked team?

This game will come down to which team gets more out of its stars. Can the Sooners contain the relentless penetration of Isaac Likekele? Will the Cowboys have enough answers for the three-headed attack of Kristian Doolittle, Brady Manek, and Austin Reaves? Oklahoma won the first meeting between these teams in Norman 82-69. In that game, they shot 50% from the field. Look for some regression to the mean as far as those percentages go. Oklahoma State has won their last two home games, and I like them to make it a third. 

Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys -1

Rhode Island Rams at Davidson Wildcats (-2.5, O/U 139.5) 5:30 PM EST  

This A-10 battle is a fascinating matchup of strength vs. strength. The Wildcats are the #1 three-point shooting team in the conference, averaging 37.8% from long range in conference games. They shoot 37% from three for the entire season, which ranks 28th in the country. Rhode Island meanwhile is the #1 team in the A-10 at defending the three. They allow conference opponents to shoot just 24.6% from the three-point line. They rank seventh in the entire country allowing opponents to shoot just 28.2% from three for the season.

In a game that projects to go down to the wire, it is typically wise to side with the team that shoots better from the free-throw line. Davidson makes 77% of their free throws, while Rhode Island averages 69%. For that reason and the fact that Davidson is at home is why I like them to cover.  

Pick: Davidson Wildcats -2.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.