Saturday’s Under-the-Radar College Basketball Bets (2/29)
Growing up, I was fascinated by the oddities of the concept of a Leap Day. Now, I curse them once every four years as they just delay the arrival of March, the most glorious month for college basketball fans. A very exciting week is on tap in the world of college basketball. By week’s end we will have our first two NCAA tournament tickets punched. Many conference tournaments begin this week, but only the Mountain West and Ohio Valley conferences will claim their champions by the end of next Saturday.
With the March feel in the air, we turn our attention to a trio of under-the-radar games for Saturday. Each game will have implications on conference tournament seeding as well as the NCAA tournament at-large field.
Here are this week’s under-the-radar bets for Saturday (odds courtesy of FanDuel). Last Week: 1-2 (3-2 YTD)
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Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers (Florida -1, O/U 131) 2:00 PM EST
When analyzing the Florida Gators lately, the glass can be viewed as half-empty or half-full. They have won four of their last five games, but are just 2-4 in their last six conference road games. On the season, Florida is 3-6 in true road games. The Gators are playing elite defense of late, holding opponents to 66 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games.
Tennessee has played well at home this year, boasting a 10-5 home record. The Volunteers have five players averaging in double figures. They are not a very deep team, as six players average more than 29 minutes per game.
With a potential look-ahead game to Kentucky looming for Tennessee, the smarter betting angle is the under. Like Florida, the Volunteers are also playing great defense of late. Tennessee has held opponents under 70 points in six of their last seven games. With Florida and Tennessee ranking 8th and 12th respectively in scoring in the conference, look for another low-scoring slug-fest in this one.
Akron Zips at Buffalo Bulls (PK, O/U 154.5) 2:00 PM EST
Akron and Buffalo is a battle between two of the top teams in the MAC East division. While both teams have the firepower to make noise in March, each team will need to win their conference tournament in order to have the opportunity to do so.
Both teams had winning streaks snapped in their last games played. Akron’s five-game winning streak ended at the hands of Bowling Green. The loss cannot be blamed on Akron’s star guard Loren Cristian Jackson. Jackson scored 35 of the team’s 60 points, while the rest of the starters combined for 8-38 (21%) shooting. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s four-game winning streak ended at Ohio. Buffalo is two games behind Akron for second place in the division.
This is the second time these two teams will meet, as Buffalo won at Akron 77-74 earlier this season. The reason things will be different in the rematch is the ability for Loren Cristian Jackson to take over a game. He is shooting 48% from three-point range against D-1 opponents. The Zips shoot threes in bunches and are strong from the free-throw line, shooting 76.6% as a team. When they are hot, they can beat some of the best teams in the country. Akron’s road winning percentage (63.6%) almost equals Buffalo’s home winning percentage (64.3%). Look for the Zips to take the rematch.
Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins (Arizona -3, O/U 136.5) 10:00 PM EST
If you heard that Oregon was currently one of two teams atop the Pac-12 standings, that likely would not surprise you. What may surprise you is learning that UCLA is the other team tied for first place. Coach Mick Cronin has done one of the most impressive coaching jobs in the country this season. The Bruins were left for dead after an 8-9 start to the season. However, UCLA has since gone 10-2, and sit at 11-5 in conference.
Arizona is in the midst of a two-game losing streak and is coming off an uninspiring 57-48 loss at USC. Six Pac-12 teams have done the LA road trip and played USC and UCLA in back-to-back road games this year. Four of those teams lost both games. The other two teams split the two games on the road trip. After Arizona and Arizona State both lost the first games of these road trips on Thursday night, it will remain that no Pac-12 team has swept at USC and at UCLA in back-to-back games.
The Wildcats struggled to score against USC without their third-leading scorer, Josh Green (11.9 PPG). Their star freshman guard is also ruled out for the UCLA game with a lower back sprain. Max Hazzard (5.3 PPG) also missed Arizona’s last game due to “personal reasons.†As the Wildcats enter this game with a depleted roster, UCLA looks like the right side. The Bruins’ momentum is too difficult to ignore, and they will remain atop the Pac-12 standings as we enter next week.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.