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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons Odds & Game Pick

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What was originally billed as a battle between two of the NFC’s heavyweights, now reads as more of a David and Goliath story. Highlighting shoddy personnel decisions this summer, the Falcons have been an embarrassment on the defensive side of the ball. Seattle has emerged as one of the NFC’s best teams behind the always reliable Russell Wilson, and a revamped defense led by all-pro Bobby Wagner, that now includes former first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -3.5 on Seattle. The over/under total opened at 54 points. The point spread has held steady at -3.5 on Seattle at all but one sportsbook. The over/under total has actually dropped for this contest, moving from 54 to 53.5.
  • Current Line: Seattle -3.5 at FanDuel SportsBook
  • O/U: 53.5 at FanDuel SportsBook
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 27th
  • Last Meeting: Atlanta defeated Seattle 34-31 – November 20th, 2017

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Seahawks at Falcons >>

Overview

The Seattle Seahawks sit at 5-2 on the season. They have won all three of their road games this season, and look to have a cakewalk of a path to a 4-0 road record. Russell Wilson continues to do more with less, and Chris Carson has reignited the Seahawks run game once again in 2019. The Seahawks have reasserted their desired identity on both sides of the ball and have looked like one of the best teams in the league in the process. Seattle appears to have a minimum of five more wins on their schedule and should be on their way to the postseason if they can avoid any major injuries to key players.

Seattle saw their second home loss of the season in Week 7 against an improved Baltimore Ravens powered by Lamar Jackson and a pick-six from recent trade acquisition Marcus Peters. The Seahawks will look to right the ship against an Atlanta Falcons squad that NFL Network analyst Steve Smith recently called the ‘get right team’.

The Atlanta Falcons have been an abject disaster this season. They sit at 1-6 thanks to a defense that ranks among the worst in the league. The Falcons have allowed the second-most points per game in the entire NFL, only the Miami Dolphins have been worse. The Falcons mysteriously declined to address their obvious holes on the defensive side of the ball, instead choosing to double down on the offensive line in both free agency and the first round of a 2019 NFL Draft that was one of the deepest defensive classes in recent memory.

Fast forward seven weeks into the 2019 season and the Atlanta Falcons have become sellers ahead of next week’s trade deadline. They have already dealt away veteran receiver Mohamed Sanu, and have been shopping former first-round pick Vic Beasley. If the Atlanta Falcons are to avoid being a four or five-win team, coach Dan Quinn is going to need to find a way to maximize the strengths of a talent deficient pass rush and secondary.

Trends

  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • The over is 7-1 in the last eight contests between these two teams. 
  • Seattle is 3-0 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Seattle is 3-4 ATS on the season. 
  • Atlanta is 1-2 ATS at home this season. 
  • Atlanta is 1-6 ATS on the season. 
  • Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last four road contests. 
  • Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six road contests against teams with losing home records. 
  • Seattle is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Seattle is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 October contests. 
  • Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a double-digit home loss. 
  • Atlanta is 2-5 in their last seven home contests. 
  • Atlanta is 1-4 in their last five contests against the NFC. 
  • Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests following a double-digit home loss. 
  • Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 contests.
  • Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • The over is 6-1 in Seattle’s last seven contests against teams with losing records.
  • The over is 6-1 in Seattle’s last seven road contests. 
  • The over is 5-1 in Seattle’s last six contests against the NFC.
  • The over is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight contests following a loss ATS. 
  • The over is 12-4 in Seattle’s last 16 contests.
  • The under is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven home contests. 
  • The over is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven October contests. 
  • The under is 13-4 in Atlanta’s last 17 contests against teams with winning records. 
  • The under is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven contests following a double-digit home loss.  

Prop Bets

No prop bets were offered for this contest as this game was still off the board on Thursday. If you find this contest available at the opening line, you should favorite the book as they welcome winners. This game has likely been off the board as there is uncertainty surrounding Matt Ryan’s availability for Week 8.

Bottom Line

This is one of the easiest lines of the week but is also one that sportsbooks seem to have kept hidden. This contest was off the board at most of our listed sportsbooks throughout the week. There has been some dramatic line movement at FanDuel and this is likely what the books were trying to insulate themselves from. Suffice it to say that if you can find the opening line of -3.5 on Seattle still available, you need to jump on it right away. Even the FanDuel line of -5.5 still boasts some value. The Atlanta Falcons have an average scoring margin of -10.2 points, and will likely allow more than their season average of 31.9 points to a hot Seattle Seahawks team. They will not be able to stop the passing attack, and they are going to have a really rough time with Chris Carson, who has looked like one of the best running backs in the league for the second straight year. Lock Seattle in at -3.5 before the rest of the books follow suit and bump this line to -5.5.

Pick:  Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-110)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 8

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-2)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6)
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11)
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5)
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.