Sports Betting Strategy: How Many Points Is an NFL Starting QB Worth?

Today’s NFL looks much different than the game I (and maybe you) grew up with. Gone are the days of smash-mouth football. The league has consistently tweaked the rules to promote offense and encourage teams to move the ball through the air. Because of those changes, quarterback has become the most valuable position to fill when building a team. A team’s fortunes (and betting line) can move south in a hurry if their franchise QB goes down, and the experts agree.

“Absolutely (the QB) has become more important as time has gone on. It’s a combination of the rules and how dynamic they are now,” said the head oddsmaker of a well-known sportsbook. “The best QB is as impactful as a full touchdown on the spread. Others (just) a point or two.”

But how do the experts make that line adjustment if a backup is forced into action?

“The adjustment all depends on the capability of the backup,” said Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of superbook operations for Westgate. “There’s no specific formula, analytical analysis or … algorithm that’s activated. It’s based off of our opinion, which includes (the backup’s) past performances, experience and the opinions of about five (experts) in the room.”

Those opinions, however, are coming from people who have watched, listened to and analyzed more football than anyone not collecting a paycheck from the NFL office or any of the league’s franchises. I’d go as far as to say those “opinions” are really “facts.”