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Steelers vs Browns Picks & Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 12 Thursday Night Football

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As we march further into November, the NFL season is heating up, and Week 12 brings us a crucial AFC North showdown under the Thursday night lights! I’m Andrew Erickson, here to guide you through every angle of this prime-time clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns, in an AFC North slugfest

With rain, wind and potential show showers playing a role, this game promises to bring fierce competition, strategic maneuvers, and plenty of drama.

I’ll be diving into expert insights on the spread, total, and standout player props for this pivotal showdown. Whether you’re crafting the perfect same-game parlay or looking for top prop bets, I’ve got you covered for this high-stakes AFC North face-off.

Get ready for a game that’s sure to thrill fans and bettors alike. So, grab a warm drink, settle in, and prepare to place your bets on this Thursday night showdown. This is just a taste of what’s to come when the full BettingPros Week 12 Primer drops later this week!

NFL Week 12 Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Steelers have won 11 of their last 14 games.
  • The Steelers are 14-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
  • The Steelers have scored first in each of their last five games.
  • As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-2 ATS (71%).
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Browns have lost 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites and 9-6 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 5-3 as home underdogs (4-2 over the last six games as home underdogs).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 home games.
  • Cleveland is 9-5 on the ML at home.
  • The Browns have won four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns have scored last in nine of their last 10 games.

Totals:

  • The Steelers are 5-5 toward the under this season. 2-3 O/U at home this season (41 points per game).
  • Four of the Steelers’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Steelers' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Steelers’ last 15 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Browns' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Browns’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Browns’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Browns’ last 15 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 1512-1 toward the over in their last 28 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8).
  • The Browns are 2-3 toward the over at home (42.2 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 10-4 toward the under at home.
  • Each of the Browns’ last eight November games at Huntington Bank Field has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Steelers flexed their legitimacy as an AFC contender with a massive win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. It was the exact spot to back the Steelers as home underdogs, now winners of five straight games.

Some might view this as a classic letdown spot for Tomlin when heading on the road for another AFC North matchup. In their last five matchups, Pittsburgh is 3-2 versus the Browns, with Tomlin's Steelers 0-2 on the road (and ATS).

But Tomlin's Steelers have been solid as road favorites, rocking a 2-1 ATS record this season. They are 4-1 on the road overall and against the spread.

I also think they can take advantage of the Browns’ defense, which was just truck-sticked by the New Orleans Saints.

The Cleveland Browns’ run defense has been susceptible to big plays, allowing the second-highest explosive run rate in the NFL this season (15.3%), per Next Gen Stats. However, they have also allowed just a 37.6% rushing success rate this season, the seventh-lowest in the league.

So, if Pittsburgh draws up a run-heavy game plan, there might be many stalled drives if they don't hit on a big run. Najee Harris isn't an explosive runner, so this could be a sneaky spot for Jaylen Warren to be more productive. Warren has gone four straight games with at least 37.5 rushing yards. He also has seven red-zone touches with zero TDs scored this season. Regression is coming.

I also think Pittsburgh will succeed more in the red zone than last week.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Browns have recorded 80 defensive plays in the red zone this season (the fifth-fewest) and have allowed the sixth-highest red zone success rate in the league.

In fact, no team has a worse red zone defense at home this season than the Browns (85%).

The Steelers are tied for third in most red zone attempts per game over the last three weeks (4.0).

As for Cleveland's offense, this is a bad spot for them across the board. According to Next Gen Stats, the Browns have already used 12 different offensive line combinations with at least 10 snaps this season, tied for the 2nd-most in the league. This number could rise to 13 in Week 12 due to uncertainty surrounding their left tackle options.

Dawand Jones was just placed on IR and Jedrick Wills Jr. is questionable.

Jameis Winston averaged a season-high 11.2 air yards per attempt in Week 11 and the most by a Browns quarterback in a game this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, Winston has averaged 10.1 air yards per attempt this season, the 2nd-most in the league. Winston has attempted an intermediate pass (10-19 air yards) on a league-high 33.8% of attempts in 2024, completing 53.1% of such passes, just below the league average (54.5%). The Steelers have allowed the 2nd-lowest completion percentage (38.6%) and the lowest completion percentage over expected (-12.0%) on downfield passes this season.

For Winston to keep things close, he needs to drop back 40-plus times and air the ball out. This just doesn't seem like the spot for him in any capacity compared to previous weeks.

As for the game total, it's hard to have a lot of faith in this game going over unless we get a defensive TD. The total has already come down three points since it opened at 39.5 points to 36.5 points with concerns about the weather. Cleveland, during this time of year, is notorious for producing poor weather conditions, and that's the exact case here. At the time of this writing on Wednesday, the forecast calls for colder temperatures just above freezing with a mix of rain and snow. Wind is 12 miles per hour, which isn't a huge concern, but gusts will be up to 20 miles per hour.

I'm typically in the camp where the weather is overblown unless we get very extreme conditions. But considering the Ravens-Steelers game last week scored 34 points total after closing with a 48.5 projection, Thursday night's game could be 60 degrees and sunny and STILL go under 36.5 points.

I still think the Browns’ defense is solid, having played well at times against the Chargers, Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens. Even in last week's game, it was tied heading into the fourth quarter before the Browns collapsed, giving up huge plays that led to 21 unanswered points by New Orleans.

The spread has moved from Steelers -4.5 to -3.5 likely due to the uncertainty regarding the weather and Tomlin's track record versus the Browns. But as I've done successfully the last few weeks with certain matchups, sometimes it's as simple as just zooming out.

8-2 Steelers versus the 2-8 Browns. Only 3.5 points? This is Tomlin's year to win the Coach of the Year award. They take care of business against the Browns.

Take the Steel Curtain and the under. Everything back to normal for the Steelers.

And given the question marks around this game and the weather, take advantage of using the BettingPros Same Game Parlay builder. If this game gets ugly quickly, take Winston and the unders on all his Browns WRs, etc. Plug the under in the builder, and the tool will guide you through correlated bets. Make Thursday night football as fun as it can be.

Props:

Nick Chubb has scored at least one touchdown in six of his last eight appearances with the Browns as home underdogs. Nick Chubb has recorded 58+ rushing yards in each of his last 10 appearances against the Steelers.

Russell Wilson has recorded 186+ passing yards in each of his last eight appearances. Very possible the weather kills this, but the number is just so low at 183.5 passing yards. Only one QB the Browns have faced this season has failed to hit this number.

Darnell Washington caught 2 of his four targets for 42 yards in Week 11, averaging 21 yards per catch, with a long of 25 yards and 19 yards after the catch. He was targeted once in the red zone without a catch (intercepted). 39% route participation. He has 12 targets in the last four games, and there is a visible connection between him and Wilson when Washington is on the field. The big tight end also ran the most routes in Week 11 since Wilson took over as the starter. I love his anytime TD odds for TNF. Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season.

He has also gone more than 10.5 receiving yards in three of those four games. Take the over.

George Pickens led the passing attack with eight receptions on 12 targets for 89 yards, averaging 11.1 yards per catch, with a long of 37 yards and 28 yards after the catch.

One red-zone reception from two targets but no touchdowns. 38% target share and 89 air yards.

Still, the best might be yet to come. Keep in mind he only had two TDs this season despite being in the top 10 in yards among WRs. The dude has been balling with Wilson under center, with a 30% target share and 48% air yards share, averaging 91 receiving yards per game. Buy HIM aggressively.

A line of 60.5 receiving yards for Week 12? Child, please. Again, if the weather is overblown, this is an insane value on the Steelers passing attack.

According to Next Gen Stats, since his departure, no Browns receiver has a target share higher than 23%, while four receivers have over a 19% share. (Cedric Tillman: 22.2%, David Njoku: 20.6%, Jerry Jeudy: 20.0%, Elijah Moore: 19.4%)

Moore has gone over 35.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games. The Steelers are a slot funnel defense. The nine most comparable receivers to Moore have surpassed their receiving yards against Pittsburgh.

My Picks:

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