Super Bowl LV: Chiefs at Buccaneers Game Odds & Picks (2020)
There have been 54 Super Bowls played, but this year’s 55th version between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs will feature several firsts. For starters, the Buccaneers will become the first team to ever play in their home stadium in a Super Bowl. Second, this is the seventh Super Bowl with a matchup between Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, but the first one to ever have a matchup between the quarterbacks that won the last two Super Bowls in Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians is the oldest head coach to make his first Super Bowl appearance. Between him and Chiefs coach Andy Reid, this is the oldest matchup of head coaches in a Super Bowl. This year’s Super Bowl will also be the first to have a female official working the game. And for a bit of a different historical perspective, it will be the first one ever played in a pandemic and will have just 22,000 fans.
Will Tom Brady add to his record of most ever Super Bowl wins and take home a seventh championship, or will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs become the first team since Brady’s Patriots in 2003 and 2004 to win back-to-back Super Bowls?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Chiefs -3; O/U 57
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Start Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: November 29, 2020 – Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24
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KC
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-3
-117
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o56.5
-109
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-162
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TB
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+3
-105
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u56.5 -112
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+143
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Overview
Since their Week 12 loss to the Chiefs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won seven straight games behind an offense that has been one of the hottest in the league for the last two months. Tampa Bay has averaged 34.3 PPG over the last seven games, and last week proved they are still capable of putting up points when Tom Brady is not playing his best. Brady threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns in the NFC Championship game against the Packers but also threw three interceptions, and his 55.6% completion percentage was his third straight game under 56%. The Buccaneers defense put Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers under relentless pressure, sacking him five times and forcing Green Bay into two turnovers. Tampa Bay finished the regular season with the league’s best run defense, and that talent was on full display as they held the Packers to just 67 rush yards and 4.2 YPC. Though the Buccaneers were out-gained 381-351, they held a nine-minute advantage in time of possession and converted 64.2% of their third-down conversions.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won six of their seven games since beating the Buccaneers in Week 12, with their only loss in Week 17 when they rested many starters against the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes is 25-1 SU in his last 26 games as a starter, and the Chiefs as a team have won 23 of their last 24 games as favorites. Many were beginning to wonder if something was wrong with Kansas City, as they went nine consecutive games from Week 9 to the Divisional Round without covering a spread. However, the Chiefs were saving their best for the most important game, as they dominated Buffalo 38-24 in the AFC Championship game. Kansas City amassed 439 total yards and had 6.9 yards per play. Their defense held the Bills to just two scores out of five red-zone trips and sacked Josh Allen four times. However, Kansas City’s win was costly as Pro Bowl left tackle Eric Fisher tore his Achilles and will miss the Super Bowl as a result.
Trends
- Patrick Mahomes is 27-14 ATS in his career as a single digit favorite.
- Favorites are 2-0 ATS in the last two Super Bowls and 3-1 in the last four. Favorites are also 27-25-2 ATS in the 54-year history of the Super Bowl.
- The under has hit in the last two Super Bowls. Over the last 20 Super Bowls, the over and under is split 10-10 and the over/under is 26-26-1 overall.
- AFC teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six Super Bowls.
- Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 SU in nine previous Super Bowl appearances.
- Andy Reid-coached teams are 6-2 SU after bye weeks in the playoffs and 18-3 SU off bye weeks in the regular season.
Bottom Line
Kansas City’s Week 12 win over Tampa Bay was one to remember for Tyreek Hill. He became the third wide receiver ever to have 200+ receiving yards in a quarter and finished the game with 13 catches for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Hill was not the only Chiefs player who had a career day in that game. Mahomes had the second-most passing yards in the first quarter of a game in the last 40 seasons. He dazzled in other areas as well.
While Tampa Bay will likely employ a much different game plan to limit Hill’s big-play ability, Kansas City’s offense is too creative and multi-dimensional. Andy Reid is one of the game’s best play-callers and will put his other skill players in position for success even if the Buccaneers are taking Hill away. Tight end Travis Kelce in particular, could be in line for a big day. He and the rest of the Chiefs tight ends had 45 receptions in the last six weeks of the regular season, which was third-best in the NFL. By contrast, Tampa Bay allowed 6.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends over the last six weeks of the regular season, third-worst in the league.
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Much will be made of Kansas City’s revamped offensive line given Eric Fisher’s injury. The Chiefs are now without three starting offensive linemen in the Super Bowl. In addition to Fisher’s injury, the Chiefs have been without starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz since Week 6, and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opted out of the season before it even started. That could be problematic when facing a Buccaneers defense that tied for fourth in the league in the regular-season with 48 sacks.
Another angle that bettors will use to back the Buccaneers is that Tom Brady is unflappable in big games, and his experience of playing in nine other Super Bowls will be the deciding factor. However, if we are playing the experience card, the nod has to go to the Chiefs. 33 members of the Chiefs have played in a Super Bowl, and 31 have won one, which speaks to the consistency from last year’s roster. By comparison, the Buccaneers have six players that have played in a Super Bowl, and just four have ever won one.
Tom Brady’s presence alone strikes fear in many opponents. However, Patrick Mahomes has too much confidence to be intimidated by Brady. Mahomes has won two games in four head-to-head meetings and has averaged 348.0 passing yards to Brady’s 300.5. Mahomes also has 11 touchdowns and three interceptions compared to Brady’s six touchdowns and five interceptions in those four meetings. Taking things further, Mahomes has a QBR of 88.5 this season when not pressured, compared to Brady’s 83.3. When each quarterback is pressured, Mahomes has a 75.6 QBR compared to Brady’s 10.6. Simply put, Mahomes has been much better than Brady, dating back to the start of his career.
Mahomes’ 25-1 SU record as a starter cannot be overlooked, and the fact that Tampa Bay is playing in their home stadium will not be as much of an advantage considering how tickets have been allotted. The Chiefs’ offensive line problems should keep the score down, but Mahomes will pick apart any look the Buccaneers throw at him. Also, Kansas City’s defense has been playing better of late, and Brady will not be able to get away with completing less than 56% of his passes or throwing three more interceptions with Kansas City’s explosive offense on the other side.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.