Super Bowl LVII: Notable Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends
Do you need more reason to back the favored Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, other than they went 16-1 SU with a healthy Jalen Hurts as their starting quarterback this season? It is very easy for bettors to sift through historical betting trends and make those trends fit the narrative of the team they are looking to back. While we are not trying to influence any bettor, we are still elaborating on the most relevant historical data supporting each side of this Super Bowl matchup.
Yesterday, we looked at the most glaring trends that supported the Kansas City Chiefs as underdogs. Today, we provide reasons that support the Philadelphia Eagles as worthy of either a moneyline or against-the-spread play.
Here are the most significant trends in favor of the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
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Notable Betting Trends Supporting the Philadelphia Eagles
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Coaching Experience Does Not Matter For Super Bowl ATS Success
Since 2000, 12 times a coach who has coached in a Super Bowl faced a coach who hasn’t. In those 12 instances, the coach with Super Bowl experience went 3-8-1 ATS and 7-5 SU. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 1-2 SU in three Super Bowl appearances, and his 37 postseason games are second only to Bill Belichick. However, this trend suggests Nick Sirianni and his Eagles are destined for ATS success in his first trip to the Super Bowl, and a cover would also mean a SU win as the Eagles are -1.5 point favorites.
Players’ Super Bowl Experience Matters Just as Little
As little as coaching experience matters from an ATS perspective, players’ experience also has mattered less than one would expect. The team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has won ten of the last 16 Super Bowls. Five Eagles (Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Jake Elliott, Fletcher Cox, and Brandon Graham) remain from the 2017 Eagles Super Bowl roster. Philadelphia has nine players with Super Bowl experience that have played in a combined ten Super Bowls, while Kansas City has 19 players that have played in a combined 30 Super Bowls. Ten of those 19 have played in multiple Super Bowls, but again, recent trends say one can ignore that experience advantage.
History Says Big Super Bowl Favorites Entering the Playoffs Do Not Win
Entering the playoffs, the Chiefs had +350 odds to win the Super Bowl, the shortest odds of any team in the last 40 years. The teams with the next-highest odds (2021 Packers, 1982 Raiders, 2002 Eagles, 2015 Patriots) all either lost in the Divisional Round or the Conference Championship.
Favorites have Dominated the Super Bowl
Favorites are 27-27-2 ATS but are 36-20 SU in all Super Bowls. Another interesting trend is that teams that win the Super Bowl are 47-7-2 ATS, covering at an 86% clip. Thus, if the Eagles follow the .643 winning percentage of all favorites in the Super Bowls before them and win outright, chances are they will cover the spread also.
Super Bowl Champions are Usually Good ATS Teams
There has only been one Super Bowl champion who has ever finished the season with an ATS record below .500. The Los Angeles Rams entered Super Bowl LVI with a 10-10 ATS, then failed to cover as -4.5 favorites despite beating the Bengals 23-20 to finish 10-11 ATS on the season. Kansas City is 7-11-1 ATS (28th-best ATS record in the league), while Philadelphia is 10-9 ATS (13th-best) entering this game. Thus, history says the Eagles should cover and win.
Philadelphia Has Been Dominant With a Healthy Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson
After a 13-1 start to the season, Philadelphia struggled down the stretch with two losses in its final three games. However, the Eagles went 14-2 SU with a healthy Lane Johnson and 15-1 SU with Jalen Hurts under center. Johnson, in particular, means so much to the Eagles’ success, as Philadelphia has lost 11 of 15 games without him since 2020.
Jalen Hurts Has Made Bettors Money
Jalen Hurts is 21-3 SU (87.5%) as a favorite over the last two seasons. In addition, if one wagered $100 on the Eagles moneyline in each of those games, bettors would have netted $463 in profits. Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins is the only more profitable quarterback as a favorite in that span.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.