Matthew Freedman’s Super Bowl LVII Player Projections
In this piece are my personal Super Bowl LVII projections for every skill position player.
Each week I post my player prop bets in my AMA channel within the FREE BettingPros Discord, and I’ll do the same for the Super Bowl. After I’ve posted my prop bets in Discord, I’ll track them in my official Super Bowl LVII betting card.
My personal player projections are incorporated into our official Super Bowl LVII FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources you should use.
Based on my long-term and 2022-23 success, I believe my player projections can be leveraged in the prop market.
Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>
NFL Player Prop Record
- Conference Championship: 6-1 (+5.33 units)
- 2022-23 NFL Season: 257-199 (+40.2 units)
Freedman’s Super Bowl LVII Player Projections
My projections are organized by projected passing yards for quarterbacks, rushing yards for running backs and receiving yards for wide receivers and tight ends.
Super Bowl LVII QB Projections
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD |
| Patrick Mahomes | 24.7 | 37.4 | 281.4 | 1.95 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 16.7 | 0.13 |
| Jalen Hurts | 20.7 | 31.6 | 239.6 | 1.42 | 0.58 | 9.6 | 46.8 | 0.56 |
Super Bowl LVII RB Projections
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD |
| Miles Sanders | 12.6 | 57.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 12.2 | 51.9 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 14.9 | 0.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6.1 | 24.3 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 24.7 | 0.2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 4.2 | 18.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 0.0 |
| Boston Scott | 2.6 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Ronald Jones | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Super Bowl LVII WR Projections
| Player | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD |
| A.J. Brown | 4.9 | 72.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5.1 | 62.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2.8 | 43.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3.9 | 43.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2.6 | 28.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 5.9 | 0.1 |
| Quez Watkins | 1.5 | 16.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Justin Watson | 1.0 | 16.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1.2 | 13.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0.9 | 9.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Super Bowl LVII TE Projections
| Player | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD |
| Travis Kelce | 6.5 | 76.1 | 0.6 | 0.04 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4.4 | 52.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Noah Gray | 1.4 | 14.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jody Fortson | 0.5 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blake Bell | 0.3 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Freedman’s Super Bowl LVII Player Prop Notes
There are two guidelines to keep in mind — one for player props in general and one for the Super Bowl in particular.
- For player props, the under tends to be the sharp side.
- For the Super Bowl, if you like an over you should bet it early, but if you like an under you should bet it late.
Unders have historically been sharp for a number of reasons, perhaps most importantly because people (i.e., recreational bettors) like to bet on something to happen. Winning a bet is more fun if someone does something vs. if someone fails to do something.
If a wide receiver catches a pass to hit the over on his receptions prop, you get an immediate rush of excitement in that instant if you bet the over. But if you bet the under, at no point in the game do you get a comparable thrill. If you lose your bet, you get the feeling of pain and loathing right when it happens. But if you win your bet, it’s not as if you get a shot of adrenaline right as the game ends. All you get is extra money in your sportsbook account. And that’s cool — but that’s not exactly fun.
And casual bettors want to have fun. Sure, they want to win — but to this type of bettor having fun might be even more important than winning.
And no event attracts action from recreational bettors like the Super Bowl — and that gets us to our second guideline. If you like an over, it usually makes sense to bet it early because the odds are decent that the line will move up the closer we get to kickoff, thanks to the influx of over-skewed money coming in from people who are just looking to bet on something to happen. And because of that general dynamic, if you like an under it often makes sense to wait to bet it until the market is more mature and the Super Bowl is only a few days (or hours) away.
And I tend to like unders — so I expect that I won’t be betting on many player props until the market has reached something of an equilibrium point.
Again, I’ll post in my AMA channel in the BettingPros Discord and then in my official Super Bowl LVII betting card whenever I do make player prop bets.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
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