Super Bowl LVII Odds & Picks: The Case for the Under to Hit (2023)
Betting the under in the Super Bowl might be deemed un-American.
It’s human nature to root for fun and entertainment. It’s much easier to root for something to happen than to root for something not to happen. That’s why the over is a popular bet among casual bettors. But as unpopular as betting an under can be, it’s plenty profitable. In fact, the last seven games during this year’s playoffs have gone under the total. And winning money is the most fun experience of all, right?
The Super Bowl LVII matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles features two of the league’s three best offenses, according to DVOA. It features a battle between two dynamic quarterbacks and two of the game’s best offensive coaches. The total reflects that, as it sits at 50.5 points.
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Super Bowl LVII Odds & Picks: The Case for the Under to Hit (2023)
On the surface, Super Bowl LVII feels like an over bettor’s dream. So how can the under come through? Here’s the case for a lower-scoring game than expected.
Both Patrick Mahomes & Jalen Hurts Enter the Game Banged Up
The health of both quarterbacks will be worth monitoring entering Sunday’s game. Both are going to play, no doubt. But Patrick Mahomes enters the game a few weeks removed from a high ankle sprain, while Jalen Hurts has been dealing with a shoulder injury since December.
The off week between the conference title games and the Super Bowl certainly helps. But Mahomes’ mobility was clearly limited in the AFC title game, while Hurts didn’t look great throwing the ball in the NFC Championship despite not being asked to do much.
Both Mahomes and Hurts might not be at their very best on Sunday, which could give the under some sneaky value.
Chiefs Could Be Short-Handed
To make matters worse, Kansas City’s receiving core is banged up. Mecole Hardman was placed on Injured Reserve Monday with a pelvis injury. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are questionable entering Super Bowl week with knee and ankle/hamstring injuries, respectively.
None of these players are enormous losses to Kansas City’s offense. But collectively, their absences could take a toll. Kansas City would need Marquez Valdes-Scantling, rookie Skyy Moore and Justin Watson as the next men up. Valdes-Scantling stepped up in the AFC Championship but has been an inconsistent threat, with just 42 catches on 81 targets during the regular season. Moore and Watson combined for just 37 receptions during the season.
Kansas City’s passing game obviously runs through Travis Kelce. But if those three wideouts can’t play or are limited, Philadelphia might be enticed to double-team Kelce the entire game, which could cause the entire unit to sputter.
Kansas City Could Rely On Its Ground Game More
When you have the league’s best quarterback on your side, you’re obviously going to be a passing team. The Chiefs only ran the ball on 38% of plays this year, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. But we could see Andy Reid rely more on his running game for several reasons. The first is the aforementioned potential injuries at wide receiver. With fewer trustworthy options, Reid could try to keep his offense ahead of the chains with more runs than usual.
But strategically, Kansas City may be better suited to run the ball a bit more. The Eagles have a tremendous pass defense but are susceptible to the run. Part of that is by scheme, as Philly’s defense is built to prevent explosive plays through the air. But the Eagles rank 21st in run defense DVOA. Philly also ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards against, while the Chiefs offensive line ranked third in that same category.
A commitment to the ground game could keep the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush honest while keeping the clock moving. The faster the clock moves, the more likely the under comes through.
Eagles Front Seven Could Recreate Super Bowl LV
I’m saving the most important point for last, and it might guide my entire betting strategy in this year’s game. But my prevailing thought entering this game (and it’s still early in the week) is that we could see a similar script as Super Bowl LV.
In that game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominated a Chiefs offense that still had Tyreek Hill by a 31-9 margin. The Bucs relied on their ferocious pass rush to harass Mahomes all game, sacking him three times and hitting him 10 times in total.
There are some similarities between that Buccaneers’ defense and this year’s Eagles’ defense. The Bucs recorded 48 sacks and ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate in 2020. The Eagles led the league by a wide margin with 70 sacks and an 11.2% adjusted sack rate. The Bucs faced a Chiefs offensive line that ranked fourth in adjusted sack rate. The Eagles will face a Chiefs line that ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate.
Life could be really hard on Mahomes once again, and he’s got a worse supporting cast this time around that could enter the game short-handed. That could spell disaster against the best pass rush in the NFL, but it could mean good news for under bettors.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
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