Super Bowl LX Line Movement Predictions (Seahawks vs. Patriots)
The stage is set for Super Bowl LX, which will take place on Sunday, February 8th, from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. Kick-off is slated for 6:30 p.m. ET, and it's a Super Bowl XLIX rematch between the Seattle Seahawks (16-3) and the New England Patriots (17-3). New England won that game 28-24.
There's no shortage of ways to get in on the action for the Big Game, including betting on sides and totals, as well as an endless menu of props. If you want the best number on the side and the total, you've come to the right place. Below, I'll dive into the opening betting lines and break down where the numbers could move over the next two weeks.
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Super Bowl LX Line Movement Predictions
Opening Betting Lines for Super Bowl LX
Following Sunday's NFC Championship, the Seahawks opened as 3.5-point favorites against the Patriots. The total was initially offered at 45.5 points. You can compare odds across all sportsbooks using our Betting Pros Odds Comparison Tool.
Predicted Line Movement on the Side
We've seen immediate money come in on the Seahawks, bumping them out as far as 5-point favorites on Monday, January 26th. Most domestic sportsbooks, however, are holding around Seattle -4.5, juiced -110 each way. Personally, I'm not surprised by the move, and I also don't think this is where we'll see the line settle.
When you look at a lot of the narrative surrounding the Patriots, there's quite a bit of talk of them being potential frauds due to playing the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. They also drew playoff matchups against an injury-plagued Chargers' offensive line, a Texans squad without Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz and a Broncos squad led by Jarrett Stidham under center.
Now, whether the Patriots are frauds or not is up for debate, but this narrative could drive the betting markets. Between the wary outlook on New England, combined with how dominant the Seahawks have looked in their two postseason contests, I wouldn't be surprised to see this spread move out closer to the 5.5-point range.
Additionally, we're sitting in "no man's land" right now, with a spread north of four points, but also fewer than six points. If we ever get as high as six points, I would expect an immediate buyback on the Patriots. Six is one of the key numbers in NFL spread betting, along with three, seven and four. A spread of five or 5.5 could be considered insignificant, as only nine out of 272 NFL games this season (3.3%) ended with a margin of exactly five points.
The last variable to consider would be injuries. Both teams escaped their Conference Championships largely unscathed. New England linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle) picked up a knock, while Seahawks linebacker Drake Thomas (shoulder) was listed as questionable on Sunday. With weeks to recover, I would expect them both to play in the Big Game. Even if they don't, neither is impactful enough to move the spread by any meaningful amount. It's also worth noting that Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs will likely play, even though he's dealing with an off-the-field matter.
It's also worth mentioning travel. The bodies and minds of New England players should be adjusted due to the team traveling West earlier in the week to do the media rounds, practice, etc. Travel and location shouldn't have any impact on the game; therefore likely won't drive the spread in any direction.
Predicted Line Movement on the Total
From an opening line of 45.5 points, the total has since been bet up to the 46-to-46.5-point range. Initially, I was shocked to see the upward movement this early, since public bettors - who typically enjoy betting overs - don't place their bets until the days leading up to the game.
After looking back at previous Super Bowl totals, this is the lowest over/under that has been offered since Super Bowl L in 2016 between the Broncos and the Panthers (43). It finished 24-10 in favor of Denver. Only two Super Bowls across the last 21 have closed with a line of 45.5 or lower - Super Bowl XLV between the Packers and Steelers with a total of 45.
Where do we go from here? Considering we have two Super Bowl-debuting quarterbacks, one of whom is in just his second season in the NFL, I'd imagine the total would trend downward in the coming weeks. Additionally, these defenses have been menacing this season. Seattle was first in points allowed per game (17.1), while New England was second (17.3).
The only other aspect to consider would be the field conditions. Levi's Stadium is an outdoor venue with a natural grass surface, which you could argue plays slower than a turf track in a dome. This could be a partial reason for a lower opening over/under as well.
Finally, I have to mention the weather. As of this writing (January 26th), it's a bit early for any meaningful forecasts. With that said, World Weather predicts a 20% chance of precipitation with 4.5 miles per hour (MPH) winds on February 8th. If you're looking to get involved with betting the Super Bowl LX total, keep an eye on the weather as we approach kick-off.