Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Odds & Game Pick
In a battle for last place in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Atlanta to face the Falcons for the first time this season. Both teams sit with three wins, but Atlanta comes into this one winning back-to-back games. But with a number of notable injuries for Atlanta, will home-field advantage be enough to pull out the divisional win?
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Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds and Info
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Opening Lines: ATL -4.0, O/U 53.0
- Moneyline: TB (+182) | ATL (-210)
- Spread: TB +4 (-105) | ATL -4 (-115)
- Total: 51 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, GA
- Start Time: 1 pm ET
- Coverage: FOX
Injuries
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE William Gholston (Q), LB Jason Pierre-Paul (Q), LB Carl Nassib (Q), LB Anthony Nelson (Q), CB M.J. Stewart (Q)
- Atlanta Falcons: TE Austin Hooper (Out), RB Devonta Freeman (Q), CB Desmond Trufant (Q), DE Adrian Clayborn (Q), DE John Cominsky (Q), S Kemal Ishmael (Q)
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Overview
The tale for Tampa Bay this season is the passing game. They are averaging 285.6 passing yards per game, which is the fourth-most in the league. Unfortunately, they surrender 290.9 passing yards, which is the second-most in the league. Jameis Winston and the talented receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been asked to do a lot this season since they need to put up points for this team to stay competitive. But while their pass defense struggles, the run defense has actually been terrific, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush this season, which is the third-best in the league. Expect to see the ball in the air often on both sides.
Much like Tampa, the passing game can be highlighted for the Falcons. They average 300.3 passing yards per game, which is the third-most in the league, and surrender 261.7 yards through the air, which his the seventh-most. The Falcons have managed to win two tough divisional games in a row, with wins over the Saints and Panthers, both on the road. The defense for Atlanta came to play in both, limiting both opponents to under 10 points. Back at home, one would assume this re-energized defense comes to play again, facing an offense that will want to funnel targets to their top two receivers. Offensively for Atlanta, the Falcons are again without breakout tight end Austin Hooper, and it appears running back Devonta Freeman will be out again, leaving Brian Hill to be the lead back. After winning two games while being underdogs, it will be interesting to see if the Falcons can continue this level of play as home favorites.
Trends
- The total has hit the over in the last five games for Tampa Bay.
- The total has hit the over in five of Tampa Bay’s last six games against Atlanta.
- Atlanta is 5-0 straight up in its last five games against Tampa Bay.
- The total has hit the under in seven of Atlanta’s last eight home games.
- The Falcons lead the all-time series with the Buccaneers, 27-24.
- Last Meeting: December 30, 2018 — The Falcons defeated the Buccaneers, 34-32, at Raymond James Stadium.
Prop Bet
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
First Half Spread: Atlanta Falcons -3 (-110)
During these back-to-back divisional wins, the Falcons have gotten out to early leads against defenses that are much tougher than Tampa Bay’s. The Falcons had a seven-point first-half lead in New Orleans and a 20-point lead at Carolina. At home in Atlanta, the Falcons should keep this going, passing against the porous defense and making enough plays on defense to cover this halftime spread.
Bottom Line
These back-to-back wins have been incredibly impressive for Atlanta. They used their bye week to re-energize the defensive side of the ball, taking on the personality of their head coach, allowing 12 total points over the past two weeks. The biggest part of their blowout win last week was their four turnovers forced, and now they face Jameis Winston, who is known for being careless with the ball, throwing 18 interceptions already this season. If they continue to force turnovers and limit Tampa’s offense at all, they should win this game behind Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company.
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.