Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan is not quite the marquee it used to be, but these two former league MVP’s still have enough left in the tank to provide viewers and bettors with an intriguing showdown. These two teams are going in opposite directions this season, but if Atlanta can win the first of their two meetings this year (they meet again in Week 17) they will possess the same divisional record as Tampa Bay. Let’s dig in.
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TB
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-5.5
-115
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o47.5
-115
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-263
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ATL
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+5.5
-105
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u47.5
-105
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+215
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View consensus picks from experts for the Buccaneers at Falcons >>
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Overview
The 8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had an up and down season. The excitement level about this team, especially from its fan base was at a fever pitch leading up to the season. They opened at 6-2 but did have a slightly concerning loss to the Chicago Bears, that most chalked up to being Tom Brady growing pains in adjusting to the offense. The defensive unit was one of the best in the league, and Ronald Jones finally started to look like the running back they hoped he’d be when he was drafted. They would lose again to the Saints to drop to 6-3, and would then proceed to go 2-2, with losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City. On one hand, all of their losses have come to teams that lead their division and/or conference. On the other hand, they are 1-4 against playoff teams with better records and 3-4 against teams that would make the postseason if the season ended today.
The Atlanta Falcons have some decisions to make. They have already sacked both coach and general manager, and quite frankly owner Arthur Blank needs to look in the mirror as well. Multiple years of reaching in the first round has set the team back, as has the decline phase of Matt Ryan’s career. The defense has some playmakers but is still not complete enough to allow the Falcons to compete, especially in the NFC South. Todd Gurley has flashed but has been much too inconsistent. He will never be what he once was, but the Falcons usage or lack of usage of their offseason signing suggests he may not be long for the team. His backups? They are backups for a reason. Atlanta needs to overhaul its running back room, cornerback room, and offensive line if they wish to salvage the final years of Matt Ryan’s career.
Trends
- Buccaneers 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite
- Falcons 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records
- Over is 8-1 in Buccaneers last eight contests against the NFC South
- Under is 4-0 in the Falcons last four contests overall
- Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta
Prop Bets
Calvin Ridley over 80.5 receiving yards (-110)
With Julio Jones ruled out against Tampa Bay, and the Atlanta Falcons pegged as -5.5 to -6.5, Ridley is an excellent bet to see at least 81 receiving yards. Ridley has averaged seven receptions for 102.2 receiving yards per game in the five contests in which Julio has been sidelined over the past two seasons. He will be facing an overrated cornerback group and should hit at least 81 receiving yards, but is a good bet to cross the 100-yard barrier as well. Ridley has averaged 85.8 receiving yards per game on the season, and if he gets close to the 10.8 targets per game average that he has enjoyed when Julio has been sidelined over the past two seasons, then he should crack the total with ease. Consider this a multi-unit play for Week 15.
Bottom Line
The spread for this contest is reasonable enough, especially given Tampa Bay’s Jekyll and Hyde nature this season. Atlanta has struggled defensively for most of the season, but Tampa Bay has had their own struggles on offense. They will be without starting running back Ronald Jones and are running out of time to start clicking before their postseason run begins. 5.5 points as a road favorite is sure to spark action on both sides, but the lean is on Tampa Bay. The line has moved to -6.5 at most other sportsbooks, so this is a number to lock-in as soon as possible. 74 percent of the experts in our consensus have tapped Tampa, even at -6.5. Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite and has a good chance to cover again if you can lock in -5.5 at BetMGM. The good version of the Buccaneers covers this line easily against an Atlanta Falcons team without Julio Jones. However, since which version of the Buccaneers we will see is in question, we will keep this to a one unit play.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.