Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Odds and Game Pick (2021)
Neither quarterback in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Green Bay Packers matchup is a stranger to conference championship games. Tom Brady is playing in his ninth conference championship game in the last ten years, while Aaron Rodgers is making his fifth appearance in the NFC Championship game but his first one at home. This is Brady’s 14th conference championship game appearance in his 21-year NFL career, and he has more conference championship wins than any other quarterback has appearances. With a win, the Buccaneers will be the first team to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Will history be made, or will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers get over the hump after losing in the NFC Championship game last year?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Packers -4; O/U 51.5
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Start Time: 3:05 pm ET
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: October 18, 2020 – Buccaneers 38, Packers 10
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TB
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+3.5
-118
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o51.5
-107
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+150
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GB
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-3.5
-103
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u51.5 -114
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-175
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Overview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won six straight games behind an offense that has been one of the hottest in the league for the last two months. Tampa Bay has averaged 34.8 PPG over the last six games, and last week proved they are still capable of putting up points when Tom Brady is not playing his best. Brady’s 199-yard output against the Saints was the first time he failed to throw 340+ yards in five games. However, the Buccaneers took control over the Saints by forcing four turnovers and holding New Orleans to 294 total yards. Tampa Bay had three touchdown drives that totaled 63 yards, highlighting how detrimental New Orleans’s turnovers were. One of the most important statistics from the game was that the Buccaneers rushed for 127 yards, proving that the tandem of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones can be a threat and gives opposing defenses one more thing to game plan for.
The Green Bay Packers have won seven straight wins, including a 19.7 PPG margin of victory in their last three games, all against playoff teams. Green Bay’s offense torched Los Angeles’s No. 1 ranked scoring and total defense last week. The 484 total yards and 28 first downs were the most the Rams allowed all year. Also, Matt LaFleur and the Packers coaching staff found ways to move wide receiver Davante Adams around and spring him free from shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Adams finished with nine catches for 66 yards and a touchdown, but it was Allen Lazard’s ability to stretch the field that gave Los Angeles fits. The Packers also ran for 188 yards and 5.2 YPC, and their No. 1 ranked offense from the regular season looks impossible to defend at the moment. Green Bay’s defense did allow an injured Jared Goff to complete 77.8% of his passes, so that is something to monitor against Tom Brady and his plethora of weapons at the wide receiver position.
Trends
- The over is 6-0 in Green Bay’s last six playoff games.
- Green Bay is 14-1 SU in their last 15 home games.
- The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five NFC Championship games.
- Tampa Bay has been leading at halftime in four of their last five games against NFC North opponents.
Bottom Line
There will be many bettors who will point to Tampa Bay’s 38-10 thrashing of Green Bay in Week 6 and wonder why the Buccaneers are such big underdogs this week. However, Buccaneers backers should know that regular season results do not always translate to the postseason after Tampa Bay avenged two regular-season losses to New Orleans last week. The Buccaneers held the Packers to 10 points when no one else held them to less than 22 all year. If Green Bay can do what they did to Los Angeles’s top-ranked scoring defense, the Buccaneers better be prepared to face a much different offense this time around.
Aaron Rodgers has a history of making the best defenses in the league look pedestrian in the playoffs. Rodgers has faced the regular season’s No. 1 ranked scoring defense three times in the postseason, and the Packers are 2-1 with an average of 28.3 PPG in those games.
Green Bay had a 10-0 lead before a Rodgers pick-six completely swung the game’s momentum in their first regular-season meeting. Tampa Bay again intercepted Rodgers and returned it to Green Bay’s two-yard line on the next possession. That is similar to how Tampa Bay beat New Orleans last week by converting turnovers into points. The Packers have committed just two turnovers in the last seven games, so the Buccaneers defense should not rely on takeaways in the rematch.
Though Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are used to playing cold-weather games in the playoffs from their time in New England, the same cannot be said for the rest of Tampa Bay’s supporting cast like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or Leonard Fournette.
Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians’ offense is clearly predicated on several deep throws to open up the middle of the field while also preventing many stacked boxes in the running game. However, throwing a deep ball accurately in 20-degree weather with blustery winds is a lot more difficult than doing it in the Superdome or Florida’s warm weather.
Wide receiver Antonio Brown reportedly avoided serious injury last week against New Orleans. Still, if he is limited in any way with a knee injury, that would allow Packers shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander to key in on either Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Mike Evans was held to just one catch for ten yards in the first meeting, while Godwin was held to just 9.6 YPC on five catches.
Green Bay’s dominance at home with winning 14 of their last 15 games cannot be understated. Their offense is playing too well to be slowed down in this one, and if they do not beat themselves, Aaron Rodgers should book a trip to his second Super Bowl.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.