Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds and Game Pick (2021)
When Tom Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the off-season, we knew we were going to be treated to at least two matchups between Brady’s Bucs and Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints. Now, the two most accomplished quarterbacks of all-time in terms of passing yards and touchdowns square off for a third time this season- and possibly the last time of their careers- with a trip to the NFC Championship game on the line. Will the Saints get the best of the Buccaneers for a third time, or will the Buccaneers win when the stakes are the highest?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Saints -3.5; O/U 51.5
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
- Start Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: November 8, 2020 – Saints 38, Buccaneers 3
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TB
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+3
-110
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o51.5
-112
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+143
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NO
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-3
-110
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u51.5 -109
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-165
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Overview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished one game behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South standings and thus make the trip to the Superdome for this Divisional Round matchup. Tampa Bay enters on a five-game winning streak for which their offense is mostly responsible. The Buccaneers have averaged 35.8 PPG over the last five games, and Tom Brady has thrown for 345 or more yards in five of the team’s last six games. However, just one of those five wins came against playoff competition, and four of those games came against teams ranked 27th or worse in total defense. Tampa Bay had a 1-5 SU record against playoff teams in the regular season, and they averaged just 21.8 PPG over those six games. The Buccaneers get a big boost on defense for this matchup as they activated leading tackler Devin White off the reserve/COVID-19 list. However, running back Ronald Jones has not practiced this week as he is working through a quad injury while starting right guard Alex Cappa’s season is over after fracturing his ankle in last week’s win over Washington.
The New Orleans Saints have won three straight games by an average of 19 PPG. As opposed to the Buccaneers, the Saints had a winning 3-2 record against playoff teams in the regular season. Drew Brees arguably has not played with a better defense in his time in New Orleans, as they finished the regular season ranked fourth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense. They have allowed 16 points combined in their last two games and have held five opponents to single digits this season. The Saints are getting healthy at the right time, as Brees had a full complement of skill-position players to work with. Wide receiver Michael Thomas did not look rusty at all after a three-game absence. New Orleans’s biggest injury concern is defensive end and sack-leader Trey Hendrickson, who missed last week’s game with a stinger. Hendrickson was a disruptive force in the two regular-season meetings with Tampa Bay, registering three sacks and many pressures on Tom Brady.
Trends
- The Saints are 10-0 SU in their last ten games agains NFC South opponents.
- The over is 6-0 in the Buccaneers’ last six games as road underdogs.
- New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Tampa Bay.
- The Buccaneers have been leading at halftime in four of their last five games against NFC opponents.
- The over is 29-13 in domed playoff contests.
- The over is 71-51-2 in all of Drew Brees’s career starts at the Superdome.
- New Orleans is 7-1 ATS and outright in games that Michael Thomas plays this season.
- Drew Brees is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Tom Brady. Brees’ 5-2 record is the best among 17 quarterbacks to face Brady at least five times (including the playoffs).
Bottom Line
Bettors that decide whether or not to pick the Buccaneers or the Saints in this matchup will have to answer one key question: is Tampa Bay simply overmatched by the Saints, or can they make the necessary adjustments to win in their third meeting?
There are several intriguing trends for when teams meet for the third time in the postseason. David Bearman’s tweet undermines the school of thought that it is difficult to beat a team three times in a season.
Further, in the four of these instances where the line was less than four points, the home team is 4-0 ATS.
Thus, the Saints can be thought of as kryptonite that the Buccaneers cannot solve. Granted, one of their meetings was in Week 1 when Tampa Bay was still learning how to gel with all their new roster pieces? But how does that explain the Week 9 meeting where New Orleans won 38-3?
Though Tom Brady is playing as well as any quarterback remaining at the moment, New Orleans has had his number. One of the biggest reasons for their success against Tampa Bay’s offense is Marshon Lattimore’s ability to negate Mike Evans’ big-play potential.
If Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians had more to his resume than three playoff appearances in eight seasons, I might give Tampa Bay more of a chance this week, citing the coaching staff’s ability to make adjustments. However, bettors should have much more confidence backing Sean Payton and the Saints, who will stay one step ahead of anything new that the Buccaneers will throw at them.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.