Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets Odds & Game Pick (2021)
I want to preface the rest of this betting preview by saying one thing: please don’t hate me once you’re done reading.
Betting on the NFL sometimes requires you to make decisions that make you uncomfortable. Betting on the New York Jets at home against the Tennessee Titans this week might feel as uncomfortable as wearing a heavy, fuzzy sweater while running a marathon in 95-degree heat.
This is why we love betting, right? Let’s breakdown this AFC showdown between the Jets and Titans:
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Details
- Opening line: Tennessee -6.5
- Current line: Tennessee -7.5
- Total: 44.5
Same Old Jets?
Adam Gase and Sam Darnold are gone. Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson are here. But some things never change. The New York Jets are once again horribly inept and put all of their terriblenesses on display in their most recent loss to the Denver Broncos.
The Jets clearly aren’t learning from the mistakes made during Sam Darnold’s tenure. Poor Wilson has next to no help. His offensive line allowed five sacks and nine quarterback hits to Denver. When Wilson wasn’t under duress, his receivers let him down with four dropped passes. Wilson only made things worse with two more interceptions.
During the 26-0 drubbing, the Jets put up 162 total yards on 53 plays. The running game was non-existent, posting 43 yards on 13 carries. They had 11 first downs and went 4-for-13 on third-down attempts.
Everything with New York’s offense is broken right now. However, the Jets defense is improving under Saleh and represents a glimmer of hope. The Jets are allowing just 5.4 yards per play and only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. It’s an unheralded unit that plays hard despite being put in awful situations by its inept offense.
New York’s defense will be without a key player, as safety Marcus Maye is out 3-to-4 weeks with an ankle injury.
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How good are the Titans?
Tennessee has righted the ship after an embarrassing season-opening loss. However, I’m still questioning the strength of this team.
Tennessee’s best moment of the season came in Week 2, when they rallied on the road to knock off the Seattle Seahawks. However, that win doesn’t look as good after the Seahawks squandered an early 17-7 lead last weekend against Minnesota. That game might’ve said more about Seattle than it did Tennessee.
The Titans’ identity is pounding the rock with Derrick Henry, wearing down the opposing defense, and utilizing play action to strike big plays.
Henry is once again leading the league with 353 rushing yards, but Tennessee’s passing game might not be at full strength Sunday. Tennessee’s star receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, are both dealing with injuries heading into Week 4. Brown’s hamstring injury could cost him a game or two, while Jones’ status is completely up in the air.
Jones battling through an injury is nothing new, as he’s done it before in Atlanta. But Tennessee’s lack of skill position depth could be felt this week. Chester Rogers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and a plethora of obscure tight ends would need to step up if both Jones and Brown are out or even limited. Tennessee’s passing game has felt off early on, and things could get even worse for Ryan Tannehill, who’s averaging just 5.9 net yards per attempt.
And if the Titans can’t put up points, they could be in big trouble. Tennessee’s defense is still a hot mess. The Titans have allowed 6.1 yards per play and 7.3 net yards per pass attempt. They’ve done a slightly better job of getting pressure and have seven sacks on the season. But Tennessee has only one takeaway in three games; even the Jets have two takeaways on the season.
Bottom Line
Well, we’ve come to the part where I’m going to recommend betting on the Jets, who are 0-3 against the spread. Backing this team even at home makes me sick, but it feels like a spot where this offense could maybe, just maybe get right.
Believe it or not, the Jets have pieces on offense. And while they’ve been completely inept through three games, they have gone up against three tough defenses in Carolina, New England, and Denver. Tennessee’s defense isn’t close to the same caliber of those three aforementioned teams, and I expect Wilson and this offense to have more success moving the ball.
I’m also concerned about this Titans offense with Brown and Jones banged up. New York’s secondary is the weak link of this defense, but Tennessee might not be able to exploit this unit if their stud receivers are out. And while Derrick Henry will get his, the Jets have a solid front seven that can contain him.
Finally, I expect New York to be fully motivated after hearing about how terrible they are all week. Meanwhile, Tennessee is coming off of a huge rally over Seattle and a huge divisional win over Indianapolis, the biggest threat to them in the AFC South. With a road trip to Jacksonville on deck, it wouldn’t stun me if the Titans came out a little flat.
The lookahead lines had this at Tennessee -3.5, so to see this line inflate to -7.5 feels like too much of an overreaction. Lord help me, I’m going to recommend betting on the New York Jets. Like I said, please don’t hate me.
The pick: Jets +7.5
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.