Tennis Betting: 2020 US Open Men’s Final
The Men’s US Open Final is upon us and one player 27 years old or younger will win their first-ever Grand Slam title. No. 2 seed Dominic Thiem won his semifinal match as a small underdog over No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev while No. 5 seed Alexander Zverev stormed back from two sets down to win a five-set thriller as a big favorite over No. 20 seed Pablo Carreno Busta. Who will be the one to break through for their first-ever major championship?
How they got here:
Dominic Thiem def. J. Munar 7-6, 6-3 (walkover)
S. Nagal 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
M. Cilic 6-2, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
F. Auger Aliassime 7-6, 6-1, 6-1
A. De Minaur 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 D. Medvedev 6-2, 7-6, 7-6
Alexander Zverev def. K. Anderson 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 7-5
B. Nakashima 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 6-1
A. Mannarino 6-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
A. Davidovich Fokina 6-2, 6-2, 6-1
B. Coric 1-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-3 P. Carreno Busta 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3
Here is a look at the current odds (courtesy of FanDuel) for the men’s final along with our advice on the best bet.
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Dominic Thiem (-470) vs. Alexander Zverev (+320)
It was evident even before the Thiem-Medvedev semifinal that whoever won that match would be favored in the final. However, I must admit I did not envision Thiem being this big of a favorite. Thiem’s big odds are likely a direct result of how dominant he looked against Medvedev, bludgeoning the ball and overpowering him all match. He had fewer winners than Medvedev (29 to 22) but also had 11 less unforced errors.
Alexander Zverev showed tremendous poise and mental fortitude for a 23-year old playing in his second ever Grand Slam semifinal. Zverev had been 0-6 in majors after losing the first two sets before his semifinal win. After going down two sets, he did not panic and kept the same attacking approach he had at the start of the match. Zverev was supremely confident in his serve as his second serves were routinely faster than 120 mph. He did pay the price with eight double faults throughout the match, but he figured a strong second serve would benefit him more over the course of the match than taking some speed off and simply getting the ball in. Zverev had a whopping 71 winners but 57 unforced errors, which furthers the point of how aggressive he was all match.
Thiem clearly has the experience edge in this matchup. Not only is he four years older, but he will be appearing in his fourth major final. He has been runner-up in the last two French Opens as well as the last Australian Open. Zverev optimists would say that means Thiem has all the pressure as he has yet to break through in any of his prior three trips to a Grand Slam final.
The two have met nine times with Thiem holding a 7-2 edge. This will be their fourth meeting at a Grand Slam (twice at the French Open, once at the Australian Open) with Thiem winning all of those matches. Twice Thiem won in four sets and his other win came in three sets.
While all the trends seem to favor Thiem, one concerning thing ahead of Sunday’s final is the status of an ankle injury he tweaked in the Medvedev match. He was able to gut through it in the third set en route to a win in a tiebreak, but he was down a break early in that set and noticeably winced in pain from time to time.
There is no denying Thiem is the likely winner of this match, but I cannot justify laying -470 odds either. Thus, we will get creative and look for set props to provide more value.
Best Bets: Dominic Thiem to win the first set (-230), Dominic Thiem to win three sets to one (+250)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.