Tennis Betting: 2020 US Open Men’s Semifinals
How rare is it to have none of the “Big Three†left in the semifinals, let alone the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam event? You would have to go all the way back to the 2004 French Open for the last time neither Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal were one of the last four men remaining at a Grand Slam event. Neither Federer or Nadal were in the draw to begin with, and Djokovic was disqualified from the tournament after hitting a line’s judge with a ball.
Thus, the Big Three’s reign of 13 consecutive Grand Slam titles will end. In addition, not since the 2014 US Open will a men’s Grand Slam event be won by a first-time winner. Given what the draw looked like to start the tournament, three of the four men who made it to the semifinals are not considered surprises. Three of the top five seeds in No. 2 Dominic Thiem, No. 3 Daniil Medvedev and No. 5 Alexander Zverev are through to the semifinals. They are joined by the No. 20 seed Pablo Carreno Busta. Which one of the four will be the next added to the list of Grand Slam winners?
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How they got here:
Dominic Thiem def. J. Munar 7-6, 6-3 (walkover)
S. Nagal 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
M. Cilic 6-2, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
F. Auger Aliassime 7-6, 6-1, 6-1
A. De Minaur 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
D. Medvedev def. F. Delbonis 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
C. O’Connell 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
J. Wolf 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
F. Tiafoe 6-4, 6-1, 6-0
A. Rubley 7-6, 6-3, 7-6
A. Zverev def. K. Anderson 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 7-5
B. Nakashima 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 6-1
A. Mannarino 6-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
A. Davidovich Fokina 6-2, 6-2, 6-1
B. Coric 1-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-3
P. Carreno Busta def. Y. Uchiyama 4-6, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, 6-3
M. Krueger 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
R. Berankis 6-4, 6-3, 6-2
N. Djokovic 6-5 (walkover)
D. Shapovalov 3-6, 7-6, 7-6, 0-6, 6-3
Here is a look at the current odds (courtesy of FanDuel) for the semifinal round, and what the best bet is for each contest.
Pablo Carreno Busta (+210) vs. Alexander Zverev (-265)
Alexander Zverev has widely been perceived as the face of the Next Generation, the youthful group of men’s players who will eventually succeed the Big Three. This is Zverev’s second straight semifinal appearance at a Grand Slam as he lost in the semifinals of the Australian Open. Now, he looks a fair price to finally break through to his first major final.
Carreno Busta is no stranger to the US Open semifinals as he lost to eventual runner-up Kevin Anderson in four sets in 2017. He and Zverev have met just once in their careers at the 2018 ATP Masters in Miami. That tournament was also played on an outdoor hard surface and Zverev won in straight sets 7-6, 6-2.
Throughout the tournament thus far, Zverev has struggled mightily with his second serve. In addition, he has clearly taken an aggressive approach in all his matches as he has accumulated a lot of winners as well as a bunch of unforced errors. However, he has also had to navigate a tougher draw than Carreno Busta and has seemingly made his path to the finals look easier. Carreno Busta had the fortune of saving his legs in one short set in the Djokovic match but negated any advantage of fresher legs he would have had by going five sets in two of his five matches.
Carreno Busta will not get rolled over in this match, but Zverev will ultimately prove to be too tough. Instead of laying the big -265 odds, we will opt for a better value with a prop bet instead.
Best Bet: Alexander Zverev to win three sets to one (+270)
Daniil Medvedev (-132) vs. Dominic Thiem (+108)
Both men have looked awfully impressive en route to the semifinal round. Medvedev has yet to drop a set and his serve is on fire, having been broken just three times all tournament. He is looking to get back to the finals for a second consecutive year where he lost a marathon five-set match to Rafael Nadal.
Thiem has dropped just one set thus far but easily dispatched of his last two toughest opponents in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals. He had to overcome a former US Open champion in Marin Cilic, and the quality of opponents he has faced thus far should serve him well as preparation for the tricky Medvedev.
The two men have met three times thus far with Thiem holding a 2-1 advantage. Thiem has won on clay and indoor hard, but the only time they met on the outdoor hard surface was their most recent match at the 2019 ATP Masters 1000 in Canada which Medvedev won 6-3, 6-1. It is this result and Medvedev’s more successful history in their short US Open careers which has him the slight favorite. It is a shame this is a semifinal match, as these two are clearly the most talented players left in the field. This match appears too close to call, but one thing to be confident in is that this match will not be a short one.
Best Bets: Over 3.5 sets (-230), Total Match Games OVER 41.5 (-120)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.