Texas A&M Aggies vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2, 4-2 in SEC) put a four-game win streak on the line when they meet the No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 3-2) Saturday. The kickoff at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and broadcasts on ESPN.
Texas A&M smothered the No. 17 Auburn Tigers 20-3 last week, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. The Aggies held the Tigers to just 226 total yards on a 3.2 yards-per-play average. Auburn QB Box Nix completed only 48.8% of his passes and had 26.2 QBR vs. Texas A&M’s stout defense. The Aggies are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) and 3-6 Over/Under (O/U) with the 42nd-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Ole Miss handled business against former head coach Huge Freeze’s Liberty Flames in Week 10 with a 27-14 victory as 7.5-point home favorites. Ole Miss’s only loss in the last four games was at Auburn, 31-20, as 3-point underdogs. The Rebels have a multipronged rushing attack: Ole Miss has four players with more than 430 rushing yards and two running backs with 10 TDs. The Rebels are 5-3-1 ATS and 3-6 O/U with the nation’s 19th-hardest schedule.
The Aggies are 2-0 overall and ATS vs. the Rebels since hiring head coach Jimbo Fisher in 2018. The Under cashed in both meetings. However, 2020’s Texas A&M-Ole Miss game was canceled due to the COVID-altered schedule.
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Details
- Opening Line: Texas A&M -1
- Current Line: Texas A&M -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 56.5
Action Report
Now that bettors steamed Texas A&M up from a 1-point favorite on the opener, there’s a split in the betting market for this game. According to Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on Ole Miss at the time of publishing. But, more than three-fourths of the bets placed are on Texas A&M.
We have a similar situation for the total. Texas A&M-Ole Miss opened with a 58.5-point total but has been lowered to the current number since. However, roughly 90% of the money and more than 60% of the bets are on the Over.
Trends
In the Fisher era (2018-present), Texas A&M is 9-7 ATS vs. ranked teams, 17-14 ATS vs. SEC teams and 7-0 ATS as a road favorite with a +9.8 spread differential. The Under has cashed in six of Texas A&M’s seven games as a road favorite since 2018. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin was hired at the beginning of last season. The Rebels are 1-2 ATS as a home underdog with a -12.7 margin of victory, 6-8 ATS in conference play and 2-4 ATS vs. ranked teams.
Handicap
Each team is elite on one side of the ball and below-average on the other. Ole Miss is led by Heisman Trophy contender in QB Matt Corral who has thrown the third-most passing yards in the SEC and is responsible for the second-most TDs in the conference (26). But, the Rebels have the third-worst defensive predicted points added (PPA) in the SEC, the worst defensive success rate and fewest defensive line yards per snap.
Texas A&M’s defense, on the other hand, is underrated because it sits in the shadow of the almighty Georgia Bulldogs. The Aggies rank third in the country in defensive PPA and second in points per play allowed. Texas A&M’s defense is second in the SEC in line yards per snap and success rate, behind Georgia. However, the Aggies rank in the bottom-third of the SEC in offensive PPA, offensive line yards per snap and points per opportunity.
That said, there’s still value in Texas A&M -2.5 even though we’d be getting to the party a little late. This is a better spot for the Aggies who are undefeated as a road favorite since Fisher took over. Furthermore, Fisher is a better head coach than Kiffin who I trust a lot more in a primetime nationally televised game. Fisher has the defense to slow Ole Miss and Corral down. The Rebels only scored 27 points last week vs. a non-Power 5 school and just 20 points vs. Auburn.
Finally, I have confidence Texas A&M will get its run game going vs. Ole Miss. For instance, the Aggies have rushed for at least 219 yards in three straight games. Also, Ole Miss’s defense has the worst rushing PPA, rushing success rate, and second-worst rushing explosive rate in the SEC. The fact of the matter is Texas A&M will have an easier time executing than Ole Miss Saturday.
PICK: Texas A&M Moneyline (-125 on DraftKings)
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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.