The Case for the Kansas City Chiefs to Win Super Bowl LV
The Kansas City Chiefs are attempting to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots did it in 2003-2004. If the Chiefs were to win the championship this year, they would also become the eighth franchise to win consecutive Super Bowls. With the Chiefs currently three-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, many bettors are likely to eschew wagering on the point spread and instead opt for a moneyline bet.
This article will take an in-depth look at various betting trends with regards to the Kansas City Chiefs. Currently, the Chiefs are -175 moneyline favorites to win the Super Bowl. (All odds via BettingPros consensus)
Here are the top three reasons why the Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl LV.
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The Chiefs are Synonymous With Winning
If you have not taken notice, the Kansas City Chiefs have won far more games than they have lost of late. The Chiefs are 23-1 SU in their last 24 games as favorites. Yes, they have two losses this year, but one came in Week 17 against the Los Angeles Chargers when they rested several key starters and kicked off as 6.5 point home underdogs.
Patrick Mahomes is 25-1 SU in his last 26 games as a starter and is 44-9 through his first 53 career games. Mahomes’ only loss in the last year and a half was a surprising 40-32 home loss in Week 5 to the Las Vegas Raiders. However, it is tough to pin that loss on their quarterback as Mahomes threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Mahomes’ 51.2% completion percentage in that game was his lowest this season, and he did throw an interception. However, that loss should be blamed more on their defense, who gave up 490 total yards and allowed the Raiders’ offense to possess the ball for more than 35 minutes.
AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls, and favorites are 35-19 SU in the 54-year history of the big game. Thus, these are two more trends that play in Kansas City’s favor.
Andy Reid is Great off Bye Weeks
It has become well-documented how good Andy Reid’s teams have been off bye weeks in his career. Reid’s teams are 6-2 off bye weeks in the playoffs and are 18-3 off bye weeks in the regular season. Many bettors will point to this trend not having as much relevance in this game as the Buccaneers also benefit from an extra week off. However, it still does not change the fact that Reid and his coaching staff have an extra week to game plan and develop new wrinkles that Tampa Bay’s coaching staff has not seen yet.
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Also, the fact that the Chiefs earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed this year was an even bigger advantage than normal, considering the top seeds were the only teams to earn byes this year. Thus, Kansas City enters the Super Bowl having played one less game than Tampa Bay, which means one less game’s worth of wear and tear on their bodies. Furthering this point, many Chiefs starters have played two fewer games than Tampa Bay’s starters considering Kansas City had nothing to play for and rested starters in Week 17, while Tampa Bay was still jockeying for playoff positioning until the end of the regular season.
Preseason Favorites Have Done Well Recently
The Kansas City Chiefs started the 2020 season as the preseason favorites at +400 odds to win this year’s Super Bowl. That bodes well for them leading up to the game, as three of the last four preseason favorites have gone on to win the Super Bowl. Despite an outstanding 14-2 record, the Chiefs appeared to suffer from a bit of a Super Bowl hangover considering they played many more close games than usual. They had a stretch of nine consecutive games where they failed to cover a spread before finally breaking that slump with a cover against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship.
That stretch left the Chiefs at 8-10 ATS on the season, and that makes them the fifth team in history to reach the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record. The 2012 Ravens were the only one of the previous four teams with losing ATS records to win the Super Bowl. However, Chiefs optimists would suggest that all this means is Kansas City is due for a breakout game, much like they had against Buffalo in their last game.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.