The Case for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win Super Bowl LV
Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs won their second Super Bowl in franchise history. This year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempt to win their second Super Bowl after winning the first in their only appearance in Super Bowl XXXVII. Though the Buccaneers are 3.5-point underdogs, there will be plenty of bettors who will pass on taking the points and opt for a moneyline bet on the underdogs.
This article will take an in-depth look at various betting trends with regards to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Currently, the Buccaneers are +150 moneyline underdogs to win the Super Bowl. (All odds via BettingPros consensus)
Here are the top three reasons why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win Super Bowl LV.
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Tom Brady’s Experience Matters
With all due respect to Jameis Winston’s league-leading 5,109 passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns from a year ago, he was not close to making the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a contender. Once Tom Brady signed as a free agent, the greatest quarterback of all-time made Tampa Bay an instant contender.
Brady’s six Super Bowl wins are already the most of any player in league history, and he looks to add to his already impressive resume with a seventh ring this season. Though Brady is just 4-5 ATS in his nine previous Super Bowls, this year marks just the second time he has ever been an underdog in the big game. In that game, Brady led the Patriots to an outright upset of the St. Louis Rams as 14-point underdogs against an offense dubbed the “Greatest Show on Turf.†Kansas City’s offense possesses a similar kind of explosiveness that those Rams teams had, but Brady will not simply need to rely on an elite defense to win those games at this stage of his career.
Tom Brady threw for 940 yards in his last three home games to end the regular season. The 313.3 YPG average in that span was third-best in the league. Meanwhile, Kansas City allowed 284.7 passing yards per game on the road in that same time frame, which ranked fifth-worst in the NFL. Thus, the Chiefs will not be the only team on the field on Sunday with an explosive passing offense. Also, Brady and the Buccaneers will be playing in the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium as the first team ever to play in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.
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The Buccaneers are the Healthiest They Have Been All Year
While the Kansas City Chiefs are expected to get many key pieces like Le’Veon Bell and Sammy Watkins back for Sunday, the players that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be getting back should have more of an impact on the game. Wide receiver Antonio Brown missed the NFC Championship with a knee injury but is not expected to be limited in the Super Bowl. Brown was held to 11 yards on three catches in the regular-season meeting with the Chiefs. However, he then averaged 72.8 YPG and scored five touchdowns over the next five games that he was completely healthy for. Brown is a difference-maker in this offense, and Tampa Bay’s three-wide receiver sets with him, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin is downright scary.
Speaking of scary, Tampa Bay’s No. 1 ranked run defense in the regular season got a boost in the NFC Championship with the return of defensive tackle Vita Vea. Vea had two sacks in five regular-season games. Still, his presence in the defensive line interior will make it easier for linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David to shoot gaps in the running game while giving them more freedom to drop back in pass coverage.
Poor ATS Teams Do Not Fare Well in the Super Bowl
The Kansas City Chiefs are just 8-10 ATS this season. That ties them with the 1979 Rams with the second-worst ATS record for a team to reach the Super Bowl. The only team worse than them from an ATS standpoint was the 1997 Packers, who entered the Super Bowl with a 7-10-2 ATS record. Both the 1997 Packers and 1979 Rams lost the Super Bowl by combined scores of 62-43. Thus, the Chiefs would be the worst ever ATS team to win a Super Bowl if they were to beat the Buccaneers, and Tampa Bay is out to make sure they are not on the wrong side of history.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.