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The Longshots: Wednesday’s Top Underdog Plays (9/15)

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Do you want to win a lot of money without risking much? Who doesn’t? That is the basis this Longshots article series is built on. Three or four times per week, we will find a considerable underdog or funky special line to toss a small wager on and then root like hell for the upset! We will play all “dog” parlays, big event specials, or perhaps literally throw darts at a dart league prop. But, regardless of the sport, the payouts will always be 10 to 1 (+1000) or better. Additionally, we will include one LEAN on a 4 to 1 (+400) or better line for your consideration.

Most importantly, you should never wager money you aren’t willing to lose. Knowing your bankroll limitations is doubly true when betting on the long odds we recommend in these articles. Most pros recommend that you formulate a 1 unit value for standard bets, so bets placed here will be smaller than that — think 0.1 unit increments. Meaning, if you typically wager $10 on a -110 line, you should drop $1 on these 10:1 or greater odds.

Without further adieu, here are today’s longshots.

  • Longshots YTD: 0-15-0 | -1.5 units
  • Longshots of September: 0-3-0 | -0.2 units
  • Leans YTD: 3-9-0 | +0.7 units
  • Leans of September: 0-3-0 | -0.2 units

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Manchester City wants nothing more than to bring home the Champions League trophy this season, and they get a chance Wednesday to put that train in motion at home against RB Leipzig. Their Group A play starts by facing an RB Leipzig team in transition that is off to a poor start losing three of their first four Bundesliga matches, scoring only one goal. Man City comes in white-hot. They have won three straight in the Premier League, with eleven goals tallied over that span.

FanDuel Sportsbook lists the home team as -340 favorites, so we will have to dig a bit to find a nice longshot play for you. Pep Guardiola and his squad should be in command from the start, controlling the pace and securing plenty of scoring opportunities early. Because of that predicted game flow, our LEAN and LONGSHOT come from 1st half goal total lines. The LEAN is on these teams to combine for 2.5 or more goals in the first half (+480). The LONGSHOT is a total of first-half goals over 3.5 (+1550). We expect City to account for the bulk, if not all, the goals we need to cash. A fun midweek longshot to root together for regardless of your soccer allegiances!

Longshot Bet of the Day

Manchester City – RB Leipzig 1st Half OVER 3.5 Goals +1550

Lean

Manchester City – RB Leipzig 1st Half OVER 2.5 Goals +480

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Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.