The Players Championship 2025: Picks & Golf Predictions

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 12, 2025

The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is here, and we're breaking down the best bets, value plays and expert picks for this week's signature event!

Can Scottie Scheffler complete the three-peat? Is Collin Morikawa primed for a win after a strong showing at Bay Hill? We analyze Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and other top contenders, plus deep-dive into longshots like Michael Kim and Si Woo Kim, who could make a splash.

Stay locked in for our One-and-Done selections and key trends from Sawgrass! Our discussion includes updated odds, expert parlays, strategic one-and-done picks, a comprehensive look at the field and a deep dive into the course’s unique characteristics. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to golf betting, our insights will help you make informed decisions. Don’t forget to subscribe for weekly episodes covering the highs and lows of PGA betting.

The Players Championship 2025 Best Bets & Predictions

Betting Overview & Picks for the 2025 Players Championship

🏌️ Tournament Breakdown:

Event: 2025 Players Championship
Course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, FL)
Par/Yardage: Par 72, 7,352 yards
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-20, won by 1 stroke over Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman, and Wyndham Clark in 2024)
Field Size & Cut Rules: 144 players, cut to top 65 + ties after two rounds

🏆 Key Course Insights:

Signature Pete Dye Design: Known for visual deception, narrow fairways, and small greens.
Water Hazards: All but one hole features water-accuracy is key.
Famous Finishing Holes:
- #17 Island Green: One of golf's most iconic par 3s, where tournament dreams can be shattered.
- #18 Par 4: Demanding tee shot with water all along the left side.
Weather: Wind expected to pick up Friday (10-15 mph) and Saturday (15-25 mph), adding volatility.
Key Stats for Success:
- Strokes Gained: Approach - Second shot course with tight landing zones.
- Scrambling & Short Game - Essential to save strokes on undulating greens.
- Par 5 Scoring - These are the best birdie chances on the course.
- Bogey Avoidance - Double bogeys and worse are common at Sawgrass.

?"? Official Betting Picks & Analysis

?"? Outright Winner Picks:

🏆 Xander Schauffele (+1800)
- Elite ball-striker & one of the best all-around players in the field.
- Runner-up finish here last year.
- Bounced back at Bay Hill after a poor first round.
Justin Thomas (+2000)
- 2021 Players Champion, strong course history.
- Four top-10s this season.
- Best scrambling numbers of anyone in the field.
Wyndham Clark (+5500)
- Runner-up here in 2024.
- Strong approach game & short game, which fits Sawgrass well.
- One of the best putters in the world.
Shane Lowry (+4000)
- Top-20 here in three of the last four years.
- One of the best wind players in the world, a key factor with Saturday’s weather.
Sahith Theegala (+9000)
- Superb short game & scrambling numbers.
- An aggressive player who thrives in high-variance tournaments.
- Course fit suggests he can contend at a massive value.

?"? Top-10/Top-20 Bets:

Si Woo Kim (Top-10, +450)
- Former champion at TPC Sawgrass (2017).
- Consistently plays well on Pete Dye courses.
Michael Kim (Top-10, +600)
- On fire lately, finishing 13th or better in five straight events.
Denny McCarthy (Top-20, +400)
- One of the best putters on tour, which could be key on Sawgrass' firm, fast greens.

?"' Key Betting Strategy for TPC Sawgrass:

✅ Avoid Betting Scheffler Pre-Tournament: His odds are too short at +360, but if he's a few strokes back heading into Sunday, a live bet may have value.
✅ Target Elite Approach Players & Scramblers: Precision is more valuable than distance here.
✅ Look for Wind Specialists: Saturday's 15-25 mph winds could shake up the leaderboard.
✅ Bet on Pete Dye Specialists: Players with strong history on Dye courses tend to perform well.

The Players Championship 2025 Timestamps:

Introduction – 0:00:00
Arnold Palmer Invitational Recap – 00:00:23
TPC Sawgrass – 00:06:24
Favorites – 00:11:40
Scottie Scheffler – 00:12:16
Xander Schauffele – 00:13:31
Justin Thomas – 00:14:10
Rory McIlroy – 00:15:27
Collin Morikawa – 00:15:43
Ludvig Åberg – 00:16:09
Hideki Matsuyama – 00:16:20
Russell Henley – 00:16:32
Shane Lowry – 00:16:56
Collin Morikawa 2 – 00:17:18
Ludvig Åberg 2 – 00:18:19
Mid Range – 00:18:58
Wyndham Clark – 00:19:30
Daniel Berger – 00:20:33
Si Woo Kim – 00:21:13
Keegan Bradley – 00:21:40
Viktor Hovland – 00:22:00
Brian Harman – 00:23:00
Jason Day – 00:23:18
Sepp Straka – 00:23:26
Sahith Theegala – 00:23:51
Lucas Glover – 00:24:36
Joel Dahmen – 00:24:59
Patrick Fishburn – 00:25:46
Michael Kim – 00:26:28
Aaron Rai – 00:26:46
Matt Fitzpatrick – 00:27:00
Christiaan Bezuidenhout – 00:27:20
Nicolai Højgaard – 00:27:39
Betting Cards – 00:27:58
One-And-Done Picks – 00:30:08
Closing – 00:31:15

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What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

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A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

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