Thor Nystrom’s Georgia Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)

by BettingPros Staff |
Jul 18, 2023

This comprehensive breakdown will give you an in-depth overview of the Georgia Bulldogs. You’ll get a closer look at the roster, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections.

In the world of sports betting, it’s not always about who wins or loses, but by how much. After taking into account the returning starters and recent developments, I will share my projections that may differ from the popular opinion (and the lines provided by sportsbooks).

Georgia Preview & Win Totals Bets

Note: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.

Here are my stats from last summer's win total series:

2022 win totals final standings:

Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%

System Discrepancies vs Vegas number:

Same number as Vegas: 7
System 0.1-0.5: 31-20 | 60.8%
System 0.6-1: 16-27-1 | 35.5%
System 1.1-1.5: 12-4 | 75.0%
System 1.6-2.0: 8-2-1 | 80.0%
System 2.1+: 2-0 | 100%

System Breakdown:

System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 7 defense

Kirby Smart left Alabama and has turned Georgia into a sort of Crimson Tide-hybrid: His teams play like Nick Saban's did before Saban hired Lane Kiffin. But Smart seems to be - is it heresy to suggest? - taking things to a place not even Saban could. The last two years, Georgia has lost eight first-rounders, five Day 2 picks, and 12 Day 3 picks. And yet the Bulldogs are still rightly favored to three-peat as national title winners. And that's only in part because they probably still have the nation's most-talented roster.

The offensive and defensive lines, along with the secondary, are all indisputably top-three units in the country. The offensive skills are loaded. The linebacking corps might be the best in the country. This team has two questions, and two questions only: 1) Can Carson Beck emerge as Stetson Bennett's replacement (and will Brock Vandagriff save the day if Beck can't?), and 2) After two consecutive national titles, will we finally see some complacency start to set in? At this number, we have no margin for error - one loss is an under.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 11.7
Las Vegas Win Total: 11.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

Last year, my system called for a ridiculous 11.7 regular-season wins. It was convinced the Bulldogs were going undefeated, and in a strong position to repeat. Broken record this year: My system has spit out an identical 11.7 wins. Georgia, once again, has hit the schedule lottery: The Bulldogs' schedule ranks No. 56 in Phil Steele's preseason metrics - the easiest SOS in the entire SEC. Georgia plays a breezy non-con schedule and avoids both Alabama and LSU in the SEC. Margins are too close for me to wager... but I definitely wouldn't bet against Georgia.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
UT-Martin	Georgia	-55.5	1
Ball St.	Georgia	-44.1	1
South Carolina	Georgia	-22.9	1
UAB	Georgia	-42.8	1
Georgia	Auburn	-15.0	0.93
Kentucky	Georgia	-18.9	0.994
Georgia	Vanderbilt	-33.0	1
Georgia*	Florida	-18.1	0.99
Missouri	Georgia	-23.0	1
Ole Miss	Georgia	-15.5	0.93
Georgia	Tennessee	-10.6	0.84
Georgia	Georgia Tech	-32.8	1

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Thor Nystrom’s Georgia Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)

Georgia Preview & Win Totals Bets

1. Georgia Bulldogs

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