Thor Nystrom’s Kentucky Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of the Kentucky Wildcats. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, Pac-12 and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Kentucky Preview & Win Totals Bets
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Kentucky Wildcats
Returning Starters: 10 offense, 5 defense
Kentucky is going to look much different this fall, with QB Devin Leary and RB Ray Davis swapping in for Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez in the backfield. Call me a heretic, but I think the Wildcats improved at those two spots. In sum, returning OC Liam Coen - who spent last year as the LA Rams' OC - has 10 returning starters on offense to work with. Kentucky's offense is going to be closer to its 2021 heyday (32.3 PPG) than last year's debacle (20.4).
The defense has finished top-25 in four-of-five seasons and has a shot to do it again. The front seven will be strong so long as major injuries aren't suffered at linebacker - depth is a question there unless someone emerges in camp. Kentucky's safeties are very good. How good the defense ultimately is may come down to the CB room. It's inexperienced, but it's entirely in the mold of how HC Mark Stoops wants to play on the outside, with tall, long athletes who get their hands on you off the line.
- Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.5
- Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
- Thor's Bet: Over
This Kentucky roster is better than people think. And the schedule also lines up pretty well for the Wildcats. My system has them favored in their first five games, four of them by 16 points or more. There's a strong chance Kentucky will be 6-1 heading into coin-flip games against Tennessee and Mississippi State. After hosting Alabama, two more coin-flip games close out the schedule (South Carolina and Louisville). The built-in fast-start means we're only going to need one or two of those coin-flips to go our way to go over this number.
| Away | Home | ATL | Win Odds |
| Ball St. | Kentucky | -27.3 | 1 |
| Eastern Kentucky | Kentucky | -39.5 | 1 |
| Akron | Kentucky | -30.8 | 1 |
| Kentucky | Vanderbilt | -16.4 | 0.95 |
| Florida | Kentucky | -3.6 | 0.6 |
| Kentucky | Georgia | 18.9 | 0.006 |
| Missouri | Kentucky | -6.2 | 0.7 |
| Tennessee | Kentucky | 1.5 | 0.48 |
| Kentucky | Mississippi St. | -1.6 | 0.52 |
| Alabama | Kentucky | 7.8 | 0.23 |
| Kentucky | South Carolina | -1.6 | 0.52 |
| Kentucky | Louisville | -1.1 | 0.51 |
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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