In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each Pac-12 college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each Pac-12 college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Returning starters: 8 offense, 9 defense
Presumed 2024 No. 1 overall pick QB Caleb Williams will attempt to repeat as Heisman after throwing for 4,537 yards and 42 TD last year. The Trojans tied for No. 1 in offensive EPA and were No. 9 in explosiveness last year. HC Lincoln Riley used the portal cleverly to plug holes, signing Arizona’s WR Dorian Singer to address Jordan Addison's departure, South Carolina’s RB MarShawn Lloyd for Travis Dye's, and so on. A few highly-touted freshmen also may see heavy snaps, with five-stars WR Zachariah Branch and TE Duce Robinson both pushing for early playing time in camp. Riley's portal acumen will be tested at OL, where he's counting on three additions to start immediately.
DC Alex Grinch's first Trojans defense was bizarre. It ranked a rancid No. 105 in YPG allowed, No. 93 in PPG allowed, and No. 124 in YPP allowed. But USC also tied for No. 8 in takeaways per game, a big reason the Trojans led the country in overall turnover margin. USC loses upper-tier starters EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu and CB Mekhi Blackmon. Riley's No. 4 portal class included three projected front-seven starters in former ballyhooed DL Bear Alexander (Georgia) and Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M), along with plug-and-play former Oklahoma State LB Mason Cobb. Riley poached Blackmon's probable replacement CB Christian Roland-Wallace from Pac-12 rival Arizona.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.3
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Over
The Trojans have to play Notre Dame and Oregon on the road, but you couldn't ask for much more on the scheduling front when looking at it on the whole. The first two non-cons are a breeze, and my system installs USC as 18-plus-point favorites in each of the first six games. The Trojans don't have to play Oregon State, a bad matchup for them, and USC gets Utah, Washington, and UCLA at home. I've gotta go over the 9.5 number. USC is a prime CFP contender. Even if they don't get there, it's hard for me to see them falling beneath 10-2, barring a Williams injury. Defense be damned. He's that special.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Nevada | -39.8 | 1.00 | Home |
| San Jose St. | -34.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| Stanford | -36.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| Arizona St. | -20.2 | 1.00 | Away |
| Colorado | -21.3 | 1.00 | Away |
| Arizona | -25.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| Notre Dame | 0.9 | 0.50 | Away |
| Utah | -6.5 | 0.71 | Home |
| California | -17.7 | 0.98 | Away |
| Washington | -5.7 | 0.69 | Home |
| Oregon | 0.3 | 0.50 | Away |
| UCLA | -12.9 | 0.89 | Home |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
QB Bo Nix turned his career around after transferring to Oregon from Auburn last season. Then he surprisingly spurned the NFL, in part due to a nice NIL package. Nix's completion percentage jumped from 59% while at Auburn to 72% last season, which had some suggesting he could be a first-round pick. I think that's going overboard - the system aided Nix with layup throws near the LOS - but you can't argue with the results. Nix ranked No. 1 in rushing success rate among QBs last year while finishing No. 2 in passing success rate. It's probably no surprise that Oregon's offense, as a whole, finished tied for No. 1 in offensive success rate. The Ducks have a nifty RB duo in Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington, along with a proven one-two punch at WR with Troy Franklin and Kris Hutson.
Oregon's offense has all the firepower it needs. There are two areas that are currently open-ended questions, however: How will the transition to former UTSA OC Will Stein go? And will the new-look OL that's replacing four starters perform as well as last year's group? The Ducks simply must improve on defense if they hope to win the conference. On a per-play basis, efficiency-wise, this group was roughly FBS-average last fall. In the per-game aggregate, the Ducks actually had a top-30 run defense, but Oregon's rancid pass defense fell outside the top 100. And now it's without Round 1 CB Christian Gonzalez. Oregon does have a lot of experience returning on this side of the ball. And HC Dan Lanning, Georgia's former DC, was extremely aggressive in the portal on this side of the ball, adding four P5 starters, as well as a former Fresno State starter. It would be surprising if the defense didn't improve in Year 2 of his regime.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.9
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
In September, Oregon has a tricky non-con game in Lubbock at Texas Tech. That game has huge implications on this wager. If the Ducks lose it, their odds of going over the number plummet. If they win it, their odds to go over surge. In the last nine games, my system favors the Ducks by nine or more in all but three games: Road games at Washington and Utah and a home game against USC. The only other losable game on the schedule is the finale, hosting Oregon State. This bet feels like a true coin flip.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Portland St. | -44.8 | 1.00 | Home |
| Texas Tech | -3.8 | 0.62 | Away |
| Hawai’i | -39.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| Colorado | -23.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| Stanford | -28.2 | 1.00 | Away |
| Washington | 2.3 | 0.47 | Away |
| Washington St. | -20.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| Utah | 1.8 | 0.48 | Away |
| California | -20.7 | 1.00 | Home |
| USC | -0.3 | 0.50 | Home |
| Arizona St. | -18.1 | 0.99 | Away |
| Oregon St. | -9.2 | 0.80 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
You have to include HC Kalen DeBoer's name when you talk about the best offensive coaches in the country. The Huskies are a certifiable aerial juggernaut. QB Michael Penix led the nation with 4,641 passing yards last year, adding 31 passing TD. Washington's OL allowed the second-least sacks in the nation, and bookend OTs Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten both return. Penix only allowed 3.1% of pressures to be converted into sacks in 2022, the lowest total of any draft-relevant QB prospect in the upcoming draft class. The WR corps led by Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan is elite. And Mississippi State transfer RB Dillon Johnson is more dangerous than any back on last year's roster - importantly, to DeBoer's purposes, he's a slick receiving back as well.
The Huskies will return to the CFP with enough defensive improvement - easier said than done. Last year's strategy was to playback and take away explosive plays. That worked, to be fair. But it also helped keep Washington out of the top-95 in success rate, turnover rate, and havoc rate. The LB corps will undoubtedly be improved with Edefuan Ulofoshio back from injury, and Ralen Goforth plucked from USC in the portal. The Huskies also have an outstanding edge-rushing duo in Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui. The big question marks are in the secondary and interior defensive line.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.9
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
Washington opened with a 9-win total that was generous - the market has bet that up to a much more challenging 9.5. My system favors Washington in every game but one, the crucial roadie at USC. Cancel your plans and make sure you're in front of the TV for that one. Washington does have three other games that are more-or-less coinflip propositions: Oregon, Utah, and Oregon State. But in the other eight games, my system has Washington as at least 12.5-point favorites and at least 18-point favorites in seven of them. I lean over. But I have to pass at the 9.5 number.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Boise St. | -18.5 | 0.99 | Home |
| Tulsa | -33.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| Michigan St. | -12.5 | 0.88 | Away |
| California | -20.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| Arizona | -17.6 | 0.98 | Away |
| Oregon | -2.3 | 0.53 | Home |
| Arizona St. | -23.4 | 1.00 | Home |
| Stanford | -27.6 | 1.00 | Away |
| USC | 5.7 | 0.31 | Away |
| Utah | -3.7 | 0.61 | Home |
| Oregon St. | -3.1 | 0.57 | Away |
| Washington St. | -19.9 | 1.00 | Home |
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Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense
The defending Pac-12 champions will miss TE Dalton Kincaid, OT Braeden Daniels, LB Mohamoud Diabate, and CB Clark Phillips III this season. So the last thing anyone wants to be talking about right now is whether QB Cam Rising will play in Week 1. And yet here we are. Rising is still rehabbing the ACL injury he suffered in the Rose Bowl and is no sure thing to play Week 1 against Florida. If Rising is healthy, will Utah have enough pass-catching talent to contend with the elites of the conference? If he isn't, is this team dead on arrival?
Alright, let's talk some good news. Utah coaxed back OC Andy Ludwig after a flirtation period with Notre Dame. The Utes also get back TE Brant Kuethe from injury. People forget: Kuethe was Utah's target-share leader at TE before getting hurt last fall... an injury that facilitated the rise of Kincaid. Utah's backfield is loaded with three starting-caliber runners, and it has a top-shelf OL fronted by all-conference LT Sataoa Laumea. If Utah contends for the Pac-12 title in 2023, it'll be because of its defense, which is the Pac-12's best. The front seven returns nearly everyone but LB Mo Diabate. The secondary needs to replace star CB Clark Phillips, but it boasts six returnees with extensive starting experience. Utah has difference-makers at all three levels, with DT Simote Pepa, LB Lander Barton, and CB Sione Vaki.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 8.9
Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
Utah has made a habit of outperforming expectations. But with Kincaid's loss, Rising's injury, and the Pac-12 on the rise, the Utes are going to have to be especially sharp this year, especially against one of the hardest schedules this program has ever faced. Baylor and Florida in the non-con is brutal. And the Pac-12 slate features the top-5 power-rated schools in the conference not named Utah - UCLA, Oregon State, USC, Oregon, and Washington. If Rising's health weren't a question mark, this would be a no-doubt over for us - if he starts 12 games and isn't hampered, Utah absolutely could shock pundits and steal this conference. But because it is, we must pass.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Florida | -9.6 | 0.81 | Home |
| Baylor | -3.8 | 0.62 | Away |
| Weber St. | -44.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| UCLA | -9.6 | 0.81 | Home |
| Oregon St. | -2.4 | 0.54 | Away |
| California | -20.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| USC | 6.5 | 0.29 | Away |
| Oregon | -1.8 | 0.52 | Home |
| Arizona St. | -22.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| Washington | 3.7 | 0.39 | Away |
| Arizona | -16.8 | 0.96 | Away |
| Colorado | -23.3 | 1.00 | Home |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 5 defense
HC Jonathan Smith has quietly turned into one of the country's strongest coaches. He took over a hopeless program and had Oregon State up to 10-3 last year. The Beavs were a bettor's dream, going 11-2 ATS. That alone speaks to Smith's work - week-in, week-out exceeding expectations. Smith signed QB DJ Uiagalelei in the transfer portal. I'm not a fan of Uiagalelei's, admittedly, but he's a no-doubt upgrade. The Beavs' quarterback play was abysmal last year, with the top two QBs combining for a 16/13 TD/INT rate. QB Ben Gulbranson stuck around to back up DJU (though Gulbranson may get bypassed by true frosh Aidan Chiles, who has been getting hyped by those around Corvallis) while Chance Nolan transferred to TCU. The pass-catching group leaves something to be desired, but RB Damen Martinez is a stud, and last year's salty OL returns almost everyone.
The Beavs' defense surged all the way into the top 30 on a YPG basis last year. Because of the losses of CBs Alex Austin and Rejzohn Wright to the NFL, and LB Omar Speights' portal defection to LSU, it's going to be hard to repeat that trick. But fortunately, Oregon State is in line for a minor step back, not a cliff drop. That step back will likely be more than offset by the amount of offensive improvement the staff can get out of the other side of the ball now that it's not handcuffed by the QB situation.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 9
Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
Thor's Bet: Over
Smith's continued building efforts not only move into a new facility this season but it gets an enormous scheduling coup. My system installs the Beavs as 20-plus point favs in all three non-con games. In Pac-12 play, Oregon State gets Utah and Washington in Corvallis. Additionally, the Beavs avoid USC. Smith has molded his team into the perfect Giant Slayer - a team none of the bullies want to play. We're going over the number.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| San Jose St. | -19.9 | 1.00 | Away |
| UC Davis | -38.7 | 1.00 | Home |
| San Diego St. | -19.8 | 1.00 | Home |
| Washington St. | -7.7 | 0.76 | Away |
| Utah | 2.4 | 0.46 | Home |
| California | -8.9 | 0.80 | Away |
| UCLA | -4.0 | 0.64 | Home |
| Arizona | -11.5 | 0.86 | Away |
| Colorado | -12.5 | 0.88 | Away |
| Stanford | -27.3 | 1.00 | Home |
| Washington | 3.1 | 0.43 | Home |
| Oregon | 9.2 | 0.20 | Away |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense
UCLA turns to a new chapter with QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet off to the NFL. HC Chip Kelly got aggressive in the portal rebuilding his roster, signing Kent State QB Collin Schlee, Ball State RB Carson Steele, Cal WR J. Michael Sturdivant, USC WR Kyle Ford, and Oregon TE Moliki Matavao, amongst others. Schlee and five-star freshman Dante Moore are battling holdover Ethan Garbers for DTR's vacancy, while Steele and T.J. Harden will likely split Charbonnet's old gig. Those two will be running behind a top-20 national OL.
Some offensive regression should be expected, but Kelly has plenty to work with and should figure it out - that's sort of his thing. The defense must improve to offset whatever is lost. That'll be the job of the new DC D’Anton Lynn. The former Baltimore Ravens safeties coach should hit the ground running. Kelly has done a good job collecting defensive talent and has nine returning starters. The DL is active and deep - returning a 2022 honorable mention All-American on the EDGE - the LB corps has three returning starters, and the secondary has four.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 9
Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
Thor's Bet: Over
It feels so strange to type this, but there's a real chance that UCLA could lose Dorian Thompson-Robinson and still match DTR's best season - and perhaps even top it. My system is calling for a 9-3 UCLA regular season, which would match DTR's high watermark from last year. That's in part because the Bruins' 2023 schedule is a joke. The OOC games are two solid G5 teams and an FCS school, and UCLA avoids both Oregon and Washington in Pac-12 play, making this one of the easiest P5 schedules in America this year. If Kelly can figure out his QB room, this squad can challenge for double-digit wins. He's given himself three bullets, and we've got leeway with the 8.5 number. I'm going over.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Coastal Carolina | -21.0 | 1.00 | Home |
| San Diego St. | -13.5 | 0.90 | Away |
| North Carolina Central | -36.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| Utah | 9.6 | 0.19 | Away |
| Washington St. | -12.1 | 0.87 | Home |
| Oregon St. | 4.0 | 0.36 | Away |
| Stanford | -20.4 | 1.00 | Away |
| Colorado | -15.9 | 0.94 | Home |
| Arizona | -10.4 | 0.83 | Away |
| Arizona St. | -15.6 | 0.94 | Home |
| USC | 12.9 | 0.11 | Away |
| California | -12.7 | 0.88 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 5 defense
Wazzu outperformed expectations last year. They paid for it in the offseason, with North Texas poaching OC Eric Morris as head coach and Arizona State hiring DC Brian Ward to the same post. Then, Power 5 vultures circled Wazzu's roster looking to pick off contributors. LB Francisco Mauigoa transferred to Miami, WR De'Zhaun Stribling transferred to Oklahoma State, WR Donovan Ollie transferred to Cincinnati, LB Travion Brown transferred to Arizona State, and OL Jarrett Kingston transferred to USC. The Cougs didn't extract even close to the amount of value from the portal as they lost to it. They signed three WR and three LB because they had to; none are stars.
So as the rest of the conference appears to be improving, Wazzu's roster looks look it has regressed. There's one thing, and one thing only, that will prevent this team from being worse than last year's: A QB Cam Ward breakthrough. I know evaluators who have long been high on Ward. I've always found him overrated. He has a good frame, mobility, and a solid arm. But to this point, he struggles to sense pressure, he doesn't throw with good anticipation, and he puts the ball in harm's way too often. He has the tools to get there - but he didn't come across to me last fall as being one year away.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 5.8
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Under
Unless Ward's play jumps up this fall, Wazzu may miss bowl season. Wazzu needs to avoid getting ambushed at an improved Colorado State in the non-con, and then they must play Wisconsin. The Cougs did get an advantageous draw in the Pac-12, avoiding both USC and Utah, but road trips to UCLA, Oregon, and Washington won't be fun. If I trusted Ward, things might be different. But if he needs to put on the Superman cape for Wazzu to tread water in 2023, we're going under.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Colorado St. | -10.9 | 0.85 | Away |
| Wisconsin | 9.8 | 0.19 | Home |
| Northern Colorado | -28.0 | 1.00 | Home |
| Oregon St. | 7.7 | 0.24 | Home |
| UCLA | 12.1 | 0.13 | Away |
| Arizona | -6.1 | 0.70 | Home |
| Oregon | 20.1 | 0.00 | Away |
| Arizona St. | -0.5 | 0.50 | Away |
| Stanford | -16.5 | 0.96 | Home |
| California | 2.1 | 0.47 | Away |
| Colorado | -7.0 | 0.73 | Home |
| Washington | 19.9 | 0.00 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 9 defense
In a sport with a never-ending churn of coaching changes, Cal HC Justin Wilcox manages to keep hanging while stacking lackluster finishes. It's probably the right call. Wilcox is a good coach, and this is a tough place to win. Wilcox had collected a good amount of offensive talent and may have been able to field a dangerous attack this fall, but QB Jack Plummer and WR J. Michael Sturdivant transferred out over the offseason. Wilcox did well to grab QB Sam Jackson from TCU to fill Plummer's spot. I also liked the hire of Jake Spavital as OC. Coach Spav flamed out as Texas State's HC, but his track record as an OC speaks for itself.
RB Jaydn Ott was a recruiting find, and now Cal has a very good two-headed monster after importing Montana State RB Isaiah Ifanse, an FBS-caliber player. Standout WR Jeremiah Hunter will now have to assume a huge market share with Sturdivant at UCLA. Defensively, Cal returns a ton of experience. The strength of the Bears' unit is in the front seven. Along the defensive interior, the Bears are big and active, and along the edge, they have proven blitz specialists. The LB corps could be one of the conference's best. It's the secondary that enters the season as a question mark - and boy, is that scary in this year's Pac-12, which has a few of America's best aerial attacks.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 4.2
Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
Thor's Bet: Under
Wilcox has done good work to keep the talent level up here despite getting attacked by more prestigious programs through the portal. This year's team has experience and some interesting pieces. But it also has a daunting schedule, which includes an OOC against Auburn (the roadie at North Texas is no gimmie, either). Having to play Washington, Utah, Oregon, and UCLA on the road is brutal, and Cal hosts USC and Oregon State besides. So despite liking some of the roster pieces, we don't really have a choice here. We have to go under.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| North Texas | -3.0 | 0.57 | Away |
| Auburn | 8.1 | 0.22 | Home |
| Idaho | -26.8 | 1.00 | Home |
| Washington | 20.6 | 0.00 | Away |
| Arizona St. | -5.5 | 0.68 | Home |
| Oregon St. | 8.9 | 0.20 | Home |
| Utah | 20.1 | 0.00 | Away |
| USC | 17.7 | 0.02 | Home |
| Oregon | 20.7 | 0.00 | Away |
| Washington St. | -2.1 | 0.53 | Home |
| Stanford | -9.9 | 0.82 | Away |
| UCLA | 12.7 | 0.12 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 3 defense
Arizona's hiring of Jedd Fisch raised eyebrows in some circles. Nobody's questioning it anymore. Not after the Wildcats improved from 1-11 to 5-7 in Year 2 under Fisch, and not after seeing Arizona surge up the recruiting and portal rankings each of the past two cycles. QB Jayden de Laura kick-started last year's offense after transferring over from Wazzu. de Laura added 20 pounds of muscle over the offseason. Arizona lost WR Dorian Singer to USC but still has one of the conference’s top WR corps. WR Jacob Cowing is one of the country's best wideouts. And former five-star WR Tetairoa McMillan is one of its best-emerging talents - McMillan figures to explode as a star this fall. Arizona has talent at RB, and its Jordan Morgan-led OL is probably better than you think.
Once again, the Wildcats must fix their defense. Last season, it allowed an abysmal 36.5 points per game. It has not finished inside the top 100 in total defense over the past five seasons. Arizona hit the portal hard, adding several projected defensive starters in an attempt to turn the wayward ship around. Time will tell if they did enough. Fresh faces was a good start after what we saw last year. Because of how well the offense will play, the defense only needs a couple of stops per half for the team to remain viable.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 4.4
Las Vegas Win Total: 5
Thor's Bet: Pass
We love the direction Fisch has this thing headed. Heck, we love this offense. But the schedule makes going over this 5 number a very precarious proposition. My system only installs the Wildcats as favorites in three games. To be fair, in three others, my system has Arizona as 'dogs of less than a TD. But in the other six games, my system installs 'Zona as double-digit 'dogs. My system strongly leans under. I'm only passing out of respect for Fisch and the offensive talent on hand - 6-6 would appear to be the best-case scenario. The 5 number itself indicates the market is quite aggressive on Arizona. I suppose I am, too.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Northern Arizona | -24.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| Mississippi St. | 12.0 | 0.13 | Away |
| UTEP | -13.8 | 0.90 | Home |
| Stanford | -7.7 | 0.76 | Away |
| Washington | 17.6 | 0.02 | Home |
| USC | 25.6 | 0.00 | Away |
| Washington St. | 6.1 | 0.30 | Away |
| Oregon St. | 11.5 | 0.14 | Home |
| UCLA | 10.4 | 0.17 | Home |
| Colorado | 1.3 | 0.49 | Away |
| Utah | 16.8 | 0.04 | Home |
| Arizona St. | 2.4 | 0.46 | Away |
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Returning starters: 8 offense, 5 defense
Colorado, explored below, shattered the FBS record for incoming transfers this fall (51). Lost in the shuffle was Arizona State's own wild roster turnover. The Sun Devils accepted 30 transfers from the portal. Prior to this offseason, the record was 22. Ironically, recruiting infractions are what indirectly led to all the shuffling - those got the former staff fired and started scattering the roster. New HC Kenny Dillingham chased off some of the remaining holdovers and then furiously attacked the portal, leading to a brand-new roster. Notre Dame’s QB Drew Pyne and Sacramento State's RB Cameron Skattebo are expected to share the backfield.
While those positions will be down from last year, the WR corps is strong, and ASU has a metric ton of experience returning along the OL thanks to transfer acquisitions. Dillingham, a good play-caller, should keep this unit afloat during the transition year. Defensively, ASU appears to be weak and undersized up front. But the Sun Devils have a solid LB corps, along with arguably the conference's best secondary. Ward is very creative in what he throws at offenses. At Wazzu, his third-and-long defensive front shifted to four edge rushers. The talent on hand is a decent fit for him in that he can trust his secondary in space when he packs the box or sends heat - Wazzu led the P12 in TFL last year - but ASU's front-seven is not as strong as Wazzu's was last year, and the defense must learn a new scheme.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 4
Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
Thor's Bet: Under
Arizona State gets eight home games this year. But the opponent’s strength isn't going to make things easy on them. The Sun Devils have two tricky non-con games in Oklahoma State and Fresno State. And in Pac-12 play, ASU doesn't avoid any of the big boys. This number was 5.5 earlier this summer, but the market did its thing and hammered it back into objective reality. Even so, we're going under. Multiple things have to break right on both offense and defense for those units to be solid in Year 1 under the new staff.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Southern Utah | -24.3 | 1.00 | Home |
| Oklahoma St. | 4.6 | 0.34 | Home |
| Fresno St. | -3.6 | 0.60 | Home |
| USC | 20.2 | 0.00 | Home |
| California | 5.5 | 0.32 | Away |
| Colorado | -3.4 | 0.59 | Home |
| Washington | 23.4 | 0.00 | Away |
| Washington St. | 0.5 | 0.50 | Home |
| Utah | 22.9 | 0.00 | Away |
| UCLA | 15.6 | 0.06 | Away |
| Oregon | 18.1 | 0.01 | Home |
| Arizona | -2.4 | 0.54 | Home |
Returning starters: 6 offense, 3 defense
HC Deion Sanders is attempting something that's never been done before. But that doesn't even really get close to stating it. He's attempting to jump his motorcycle off the equivalent of two Grand Canyons. He's attempting to scale Mount Everest blindfolded. Coach Prime signed 51 transfers to ink 247Sports' No. 1 portal class. He got himself a whole new roster. Included in that was the No. 1 overall recruit two classes ago, WR/CB Travis Hunter, along with his son, QB Shadeur Sanders, a former four-star recruit. Both were stars for Prime at Jackson State. Sanders' underrated stroke of genius was hiring Kent State HC Sean Lewis - who ran one of the country's fastest-tempo offenses - to bring that system to altitude in Boulder. Lewis likes to spread the field wide and turn games into track meets. That'll play in thin air. The RB room is stocked with Alton McCaskill, Kavosiey Smoke, and four-star Dylan Edwards. Two standout former USF starting WRs will start immediately here, but CU will have to cobble together the rest of the WR corps. The OL has starting experience but doesn't appear to have much upside.
On defense, Coach Prime made sure his secondary was stocked immediately. Hunter was the apple of every coach's eye in the class before last. Cormani McClain was a five-star in 2023. CB Omarion Cooper and S Travis Jay transferred over from Prime's alma mater Florida State. And Myles Slusher was a standout starter at Arkansas. Colorado also did slick work in the portal at linebacker and on the edge and should be at least adequate at both spots barring injuries. The problematic spot could be along the defensive interior, where the Buffs lack both beef and depth.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 3.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
So much going on here. The new staff. Unprecedented roster turnover at a scale we've never seen before. HC Deion Sanders' health issues. All we can do is make educated guesses and situational assumptions. DC Charles Kelly swears the Buffaloes will be better than people think in Year 1. The starting lineup is objectively solid. The depth in some areas is precarious, and this team wants to play at tempo, so the Buffs could be playing with fire. But, again, the lineup is objectively solid. And while Sanders is untested at the FBS level, I like his staff and loved his coordinator hires. But my gosh, is this schedule brutal. My system ended up falling smack-dab on Vegas' 3.5 number. So we've gotta pass. But man, are we fascinated to watch this play out.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| TCU | 16.5 | 0.04 | Away |
| Nebraska | 5.3 | 0.33 | Home |
| Colorado St. | -12.4 | 0.87 | Home |
| Oregon | 23.9 | 0.00 | Away |
| USC | 21.3 | 0.00 | Home |
| Arizona St. | 3.4 | 0.41 | Away |
| Stanford | -11.8 | 0.86 | Home |
| UCLA | 15.9 | 0.06 | Away |
| Oregon St. | 12.5 | 0.12 | Home |
| Arizona | -1.3 | 0.51 | Home |
| Washington St. | 7.0 | 0.27 | Away |
| Utah | 23.3 | 0.00 | Away |
Returning starters: 3 offense, 4 defense
Stanford begins its first season without David Shaw in 13 years. Shaw went 96-54 at Stanford but 3-9 in each of the past two seasons and 14-28 since 2019. Troy Taylor, who engineered a stunning turnaround of FCS Sacramento State, takes over. He has another no-hope fixer-upper to get to work on. Stanford not only lost a ton of talent - both to the NFL and also to the portal - but it also isn't able to use the portal much itself due to academic restrictions placed on the program by the institution. This year, those were lifted ever-so-slightly... to the tune of Stanford signing four transfers.
The Cardinal only return seven players with starting experience. Naturally, Stanford ranks near the bottom of the nation in returning experience. The offense has two solid-skill players in RB EJ Smith and TE Benjamin Yurosek. Outside of that, you have a returning starter at center and total unknowns everywhere else. Defensively, Stanford returns three of their own starters, all along the defensive line, one of which is projected to shift to outside linebacker, while adding FIU's leading tackler, LB Gaethan Bernadel. The front seven may at least be presentable. The secondary, filled with unknowns, could be rancid.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 2.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
Taylor took over a situation every bit as bad as Coach Prime did. It's just that Coach Prime could flip over his entire roster in one offseason, while Taylor could only watch several key contributors defect, while he was mostly powerless to replenish with immediate contributors. The roster is a wasteland outside of a few positions. It's almost unfair that Stanford is tasked with playing Phil Steele's No. 17 SOS in Taylor's first season. But Stanford does get Hawaii and Taylor's old friends at FCS Sacramento State. Take care of business in those ones, and Taylor only needs to bag one upset in the other 10 games to go over the number. You might be inclined to discount the possibility of that. But he did too much big-game hunting at Sac State for me to feel comfortable fading him with so many bullets this close to the margins.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Hawai’i | -3.5 | 0.59 | Away |
| USC | 35.8 | 0.00 | Away |
| Sacramento St. | -13.4 | 0.89 | Home |
| Arizona | 8.8 | 0.20 | Home |
| Oregon | 29.0 | 0.00 | Home |
| Colorado | 11.9 | 0.14 | Away |
| UCLA | 21.2 | 0.00 | Home |
| Washington | 28.4 | 0.00 | Home |
| Washington St. | 16.4 | 0.05 | Away |
| Oregon St. | 27.3 | 0.00 | Away |
| California | 10.9 | 0.15 | Home |
| Notre Dame | 29.2 | 0.00 | Home |
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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