Thor Nystrom’s Penn State Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of the Penn State Nittany Lions. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, Pac-12 and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Penn State Preview & Win Totals Bets
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Penn State Nittany Lions
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
Entering his 10th season in Happy Valley, HC James Franklin has won 11 games three different times. But Franklin is 3-9 against Michigan and Ohio State since 2017. For a few years, the run game was a problem. In others, Franklin's reliable-but-physically-limited quarterbacks couldn't keep up in shootouts against top-tier programs. Franklin may have finally found a championship-caliber backfield duo in QB Drew Allar and RB Nicholas Singleton, a pair of ballyhooed sophomores. Singleton was a star from the day he stepped on campus. Allar, meanwhile, has the high-octane arm that Franklin's offenses have previously lacked. If Allar is as advertised, this unit is going to be very good.
Defensively, PSU ranked No. 10 in scoring defense in DC Manny Diaz's first season. With eight starters back on that side of the ball - including stars EDGE Chop Robinson and CB Kalen King - the Nittany Lions may be even better this fall. Diaz loves to send the heat, and his front-7 is well suited for that ethos, full of sleek athletes. And despite losing CB Joey Porter Jr. and S Ji'Ayir Brown, PSU still may have the country's best secondary. The other three starters return - including shutdown CB1 King - and the two-deep is littered with former elite recruits.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Over
Are you comfortable trusting James Franklin? That's what this bet comes down to. Because outside of the Michigan and Ohio State games, my system projects Penn State as double-digit favorites in the other 10. Losses to the Wolverines and Buckeyes would require the Nittany Lions to run the table in the other 10 to go over - to take care of business, in other words. We like PSU's roster and believe they get to double-digit wins.
| Away | Home | ATL | Win Odds |
| West Virginia | Penn St. | -22.1 | 1 |
| Delaware | Penn St. | -48.0 | 1 |
| Penn St. | Illinois | -11.5 | 0.86 |
| Iowa | Penn St. | -13.2 | 0.89 |
| Penn St. | Northwestern | -27.2 | 1 |
| Massachusetts | Penn St. | -47.5 | 1 |
| Penn St. | Ohio St. | 9.6 | 0.19 |
| Indiana | Penn St. | -31.3 | 1 |
| Penn St. | Maryland | -10.3 | 0.83 |
| Michigan | Penn St. | 3.8 | 0.38 |
| Rutgers | Penn St. | -29.0 | 1 |
| Penn St. | Michigan St. | -14.5 | 0.92 |
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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