Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Expert Picks & Predictions (Lions vs. Chiefs)
Introducing the Week 1 tease of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’ll guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and occasionally even player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. For this edition, we are just focusing on KC-DET as the NFL kick-offs tonight. But it’s just a sign of things before the official BettingPros Primer gets dropped on Friday.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this one-game primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the KC-DET matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Stay tuned for an exciting journey through the world of NFL betting - it’s time to elevate your game!
Thursday Night Football Betting Primer
Kansas City Chiefs (KC) vs. Detroit Lions (DET) – Spread: KC -4.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
KC was 2-8 at home toward the over last season. Their offense ranked first in points per game on the road (33.3) but ninth at home (25.1). The Lions were the league's top offense at home (33.1) but were below average on the road (19.4). Detroit is also 17-7 vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the Detroit offense. I think this game comes under the total and is a closer contest than what Detroit is getting credit for, especially with the injuries to Chris Jones and Travis Kelce. Don't like the number as much now since the recent line movement - was already on the Lions’ side earlier this offseason - but I still side with the Lions covering the 5.5-point spread. And if I were to pick a side on the offensive side of the ball, I'd likely side with the Lions going OVER their projected 23.5 team total. Patrick Mahomes is the NFL's best QB and will do plenty of damage against a subpar Lions defensive unit to keep Detroit's offense on the gas pedal.
As for player props, I am in love with the overs on Lions RBs in the receiving game.
No threat besides Amon-Ra St. Brown suggests David Montgomery and Jahymr Gibbs will see plenty of usage as receivers. Note that D'Andre Swift averaged 3.4 receptions per game last season, and the Lions hated him. They LOVE Gibbs after selecting him 12th overall in this year's draft. The line for Gibbs' receptions is set at 3.5. A fair number, but one I think he gets over, especially in this matchup. The Chiefs last season allowed the most catches, fourth-most yards and second-most targets to RBs in the passing game. Get ready for Gibbs’ showcase on Thursday night.
As for WR player props, I earned my nickname "The Props Prophet" slamming Marvin Jones’ receiving unders ad nauseam.
However, with plus-money on his 2.5 receptions prop, I am shying away based on the payout. But that doesn't mean I am fading dusty Lions WRs. Insert Josh Reynolds, who also has his receiving prop listed at 2.5 receptions. The main difference is you can get plus-odds toward the UNDER (+106 FanDuel Sportsbook) on Reynolds' receptions number. In 13 games last season, Reynolds went over 2.5 catches in just 6 games. In two of those games, Amon-Ra St. Brown was hurt. Two more came after the team traded away T.J. Hockenson in the second half of the season. When there's healthy competition around him, Reynolds has shown zero ability to earn targets, as indicated by his 16% target rate per route run. It's not clear to me Reynolds is ahead of Jones or even Kalif Raymond in the Lions WR pecking order behind the Sun God.
My picks:
- Lions +4.5
- Lions over 23.5 points
My props
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 3.5 receptions
- Josh Reynolds UNDER 2.5 receptions
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