Thursday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets: Bears vs. Commanders (Week 6)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 6. Here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 6 matchup: Bears vs. Commanders.
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NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Commanders
Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears
Check out our Commanders at Bears matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Soldier Field
- TV: Prime
Commanders at Bears: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Commanders -1
- Over/Under: 38
- Moneyline: Commanders -110, Bears -110
Commanders at Bears: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Bears - 66% bets, 78% money
- Over/Under: Under - 65% bets, 83% money
- Moneyline: Bears - 58% bets, 61% money
Commanders at Bears: Injuries
Commanders: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Percy Butler | SAF | Quad | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Sam Cosmi | OT | Finger | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Hamstring | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Logan Thomas | TE | Calf | LP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jonathan Williams | RB | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| William Jackson | CB | Back | FP | LP | DNP | Out |
| Dyami Brown | WR | Groin | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Willie Beavers | G | IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | IR |
| Curtis Hodges | TE | IR |
| Phidarian Mathis | DT | IR |
| Chase Roullier | C | IR |
| Wes Schweitzer | G | IR |
| Chase Young | DE | PUP |
Bears: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Dane Cruikshank | DB | Hamstring | FP | FP | FP | Questionable |
Bears: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Matt Adams | LB | IR |
| Dakota Dozier | OL | IR |
| Doug Kramer | OL | IR |
| David Moore | WR | IR |
| Byron Pringle | WR | IR |
| Tajae Sharpe | WR | IR |
| Cody Whitehair | OL | IR |
| Tavon Young | DB | IR |
| Alex Leatherwood | OL | NFI |
Commanders at Bears: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Commanders Trends
- 2022 Commanders: 1-4 ATS (54.3% ROI for faders)
- QB Carson Wentz: 25-36 ATS (14.9% ROI for faders) in the post-hype 2018-22 era
- QB Carson Wentz: 13-21 ATS (19.2% ROI for faders) as favorite in the post-hype 2018-22 era
Bears Trends
- 2022 Bears: 2-3 ATS (15.2% ROI for faders)
- QB Justin Fields: 5-10 ATS (28.7% ROI for faders) for career
Commanders at Bears: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Commanders Offense vs. Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.092 | 28 | 0.059 | 23 | -5 |
| Total SR | 38.2% | 30 | 47.6% | 28 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | -19.2% | 30 | 4.1% | 18 | -12 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.06 | 26 | 0.132 | 25 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 41.3% | 27 | 49.7% | 26 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | -8.8% | 28 | 8.1% | 15 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.8% | 29 | 5.6% | 24 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.172 | 27 | -0.020 | 22 | -5 |
| Rush SR | 30.4% | 32 | 45.4% | 23 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -26.1% | 31 | 0.5% | 25 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.78 | 32 | 4.70 | 24 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 24 | 5.6 | 18 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 18 | 26 | 21.2 | 15 | -11 |
Bears Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.029 | 21 | 0.031 | 15 | -6 |
| Total SR | 36.9% | 32 | 40.5% | 6 | -26 |
| Total DVOA | -18.6% | 29 | 4.2% | 19 | -10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.014 | 20 | 0.155 | 26 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 38.3% | 31 | 44.6% | 14 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | -17.1% | 30 | 20.6% | 29 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 16.4% | 32 | 9.6% | 4 | -28 |
| Rush EPA | -0.071 | 22 | -0.161 | 5 | -17 |
| Rush SR | 35.6% | 28 | 34.1% | 4 | -24 |
| Rush DVOA | -9.4% | 20 | -17.8% | 6 | -14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.35 | 19 | 4.19 | 9 | -10 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 21 | 5.6 | 18 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 17.2 | 27 | 25.6 | 25 | -2 |
Commanders at Bears: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Carson Wentz
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.017 | 27 |
| AY/A | 6.3 | 21 |
| QBR | 38.2 | 24 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 25 |
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -4.5
2022: Justin Fields
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.006 | 29 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 19 |
| QBR | 37.1 | 25 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.6 | 37 |
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 5.9
- QB Elo per Game: -108.2
Key Matchup: Bears Pass Defense vs. Commanders Pass Offense
The Bears don’t have a lot going for them organizationally, but at least their pass defense has been good this year — better than the pass offense for the Commanders.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Pass DVOA | -8.8% | 28 | 8.1% | 15 | -13 |
Even though QB Carson Wentz has 1,390 yards and 10 touchdowns passing, he has also continued his tradition of throwing back-breaking interceptions (6) and been careless with the ball (six fumbles) while taking way too many sacks (20, behind only aging statues Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford at 21).
And in this game he’ll be without five starters: WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring), TE Logan Thomas (calf), C Chase Roullier (knee, IR), RG Wes Schweitzer (concussion, IR) and RT Samuel Cosmi (thumb).
Wentz without two of his best red-zone receivers and the entire right side of his offensive line? Yeah, he might struggle.
Best Line: Bears +1 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Bears +1 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears -3
Limit: Bears -1
Side Note: By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
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